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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
 Posted - 03/09/2003 : 05:51:44 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Fireballn
Murphy's law is, I will admit, a strong force.
I'm not sure exactly what you mean by bringing up Murphy's, but this is how I choose to interpret Murphy's:
Fundies say the chance of life starting by pure chance is too small to ever happen, therefore Murphy's Law kicks in and creates life without divine intervention. Thus rendering the discussion of the probability of life rather pointless...
I still would like to pick Doomar's probability-formula apart. |
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Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
Posted - 03/11/2003 : 20:26:58 [Permalink]
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| I was agreeing with filthy's statement that 'if something can happen, sooner or later it will'. |
If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
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mingofmongo
New Member
4 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2003 : 01:33:16 [Permalink]
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The answer is yes, but it is unlikely to be helpful.
Feel free to make oe up. The Ceti people did, and got a lot of milage out of it. With fudge-factors, all things are possible.
Here's one:
the likelihood of life forming in the universe is x in y, where x is the number of planets whose temperature variations support water in all three states, times Ming of Mongos's constant M, and y is the number of planets in the universe. Guess at the number of planets, and adjust M anyway you see fit.
Accurate? sure. Useful? not on your life. |
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Franc28
New Member
29 Posts |
Posted - 03/18/2003 : 20:41:56 [Permalink]
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DRAKE'S EQUATION
N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L
Where,
N = The number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.
R* =The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems. more info
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life. more info
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. For more information, please visit Dr. William Calvin's "The Drake Equation's fi"
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
Posted - 03/20/2003 : 13:11:55 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Franc28
DRAKE'S EQUATION
N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L
Drake's equation is a classic. However, the variables are highly generalized, and does not really answer Fireballn's initial question with any kind of prediction.
Intelligent Design "scientists" has made a revised version of Drakes Equation where they show that the chance of intelligent life emerging is one in 10^99 Since that is "impossible" this equation must mean that God has been messing with the probabilities in order to create us. I think that is pure BS. Read more in the thread "The Incredible Design Of The Earth and..." |
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Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2003 : 18:18:21 [Permalink]
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| Any idea how they came up with the 10 to the 99? |
If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2003 : 17:52:57 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Fireballn
Any idea how they came up with the 10 to the 99?
By artificially inflating probabilities by making ludicrous statement about required initial conditions and choosing initial conditions that are overlapping.
example:
They say that the percentage of metal elements in the nebula that forms the star has to be "just right", otherwise life won't occur.
But they also state that the star's time of birth in the galaxy's lifetime is important. These two are basically the same thing. The older the galaxy gets, the higher metal content in nebulas.
another example:
They state that we must include the probability of star luminosity (and mass) being right. This is ok with me, but then they also state that there is a certain probability for the colour of the star to be ideal (spectrum) too red-> photosynthesis won't work, too blue -> too much harmful UV-components.
But these two are the same. The colour of the star is a function of it's temperature, which is a function of it's mass.
There are a lot more such overlapping of conditions that has to be met: Either they have no or little knowledge of Astronomy, or they are manufacturing/falsifying conditions in order to inflate their numbers. And to be honest (and I don't like to slander so I'm saying this with reluctance) they present some of the stuff in a way that make me think that they have more than just basic knowledge of astronomy. |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2003 : 19:01:45 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Fireballn
Any idea how they came up with the 10 to the 99?
See also this thread http://www.skepticfriends.org/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1867
There are two links to pages regarding this.
The first is to Intelligent Design page, the other one is a guy pointing out faults in the first page. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2003 : 22:15:09 [Permalink]
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While my contribution to this thread has been meager, I've followed it with interest.
I've wondered: there are planets being discovered around neighboring stars almost every month, it seems, and I've no doubt that many more will be found even farther away as our detection systems get better. There are billions of stars in the galaxy (please bear with me -- this is far from my field of expertise, if indeed I have one), and it would seem that the odds say that some if not a great many will have some sort of organic life.
So, what might that life be like? I rather think that Star Trek, as much as I love it, will never be more than a fantasy. I think that sentient species just might be few and far between. Dig it: it has yet to be shown that sentience has any long-term, evolutionary, survival value.
Why do I make this statment? Again, dig it: species were and are driven extinct mainly by habitat destruction (changing climate, over population, bulldozers and chainsaws, and so forth). We have not been around, as a sentient species, long enough to comment upon, yet we've destroyed a vast amount of our habitat, and our population grows almost like bacteria because the only serious predator we have is ourselves. We've pretty well subdued all the rest, including most microbes -- although these, little buggers, and cockroaches, seem to have the ToE wired!
So. I wonder if the galaxy and the universe is not filled with life, but little, if any of it sentient.
Never forget: Evolution has no goal, no drive to make the 'end product'. It only fits populations of organisms into their enviornment, with perhaps a few, odd and unfortunate experiments on the side. Are we one of the 'odd and unfortunate' experiments gone wrong? Could have other, far away, sentient species have died out (read: killed themselves off like idiots)?
Are we actually alone in a universe roiling with life?
Let the flames begin, I can take it! 
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Donnie B.
Skeptic Friend
417 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2003 : 08:00:12 [Permalink]
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filthy, that's not a very uncommon suggestion at all. I happen to agree, based on a simple observation: there has been life on Earth for some four billion years, but complex multicellular organisms have only been around for the last 550 million years, and sentience has only appeared during the last million or so (maybe more or less, depending on your definition of sentience). So on that basis alone, the percentage of worlds with life that also include sentient life is less than one in a thousand. Pretty slim odds, unless for some reason Earth is an especially poor place for sentience to arise.
So, assuming there are X planets with suitable environments, maybe X/10 of those have complex multicellular life, and X/1000 have anybody to talk to. But then, we have only one example to go by, and it may not be typical.
By the way, Robert Heinlein's primary future-history storylines are similar. In his cosmos, humans develop FTL starships and set out to explore the galaxy. They find plenty of planets with life, but no other intelligent species. Which works out well (in a sense), since we just colonize all those planets and the total human population explodes.
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-- Donnie B.
Brian: "No, no! You have to think for yourselves!" Crowd: "Yes! We have to think for ourselves!" |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2003 : 08:12:23 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by filthy
While my contribution to this thread has been meager, I've followed it with interest.
I've wondered: there are planets being discovered around neighboring stars almost every month, it seems, and I've no doubt that many more will be found even farther away as our detection systems get better. There are billions of stars in the galaxy (please bear with me -- this is far from my field of expertise, if indeed I have one), and it would seem that the odds say that some if not a great many will have some sort of organic life.
10^99 is far greater than the number of particles in the universe, I think the number of planets was in the order of 10^23. The ID-people says that the probability is still too small to ever happen. I disagree with their numbers.
quote:
So, what might that life be like? I rather think that Star Trek, as much as I love it, will never be more than a fantasy. I think that sentient species just might be few and far between. Dig it: it has yet to be shown that sentience has any long-term, evolutionary, survival value.
Well, perhaps that is true. Homonids have only been around for 4 million years, which is a relatively short time. From the first bacteria evolution has accelerated as the living organisms has grown more complex. The emergence of intelligence have changed the rules of the game. When Homo Habilis learned to use fire, it started to adapt the environment to it's need instead of adapting itself to environment. Now we are changing our environment (building houses, growing crops, hunting fish with huge boats) more than ever, we no longer need to adapt to our environment. The evolution now works on a social stage instead, cultures competing with cultures. If all people on Earth became aware of this, we could create a synthetic culture that does not need hostile competition in order to grow.
quote:
So. I wonder if the galaxy and the universe is not filled with life, but little, if any of it sentient.
The timeline of evolution on Earth suggests that most planets with life will have bacterial life only. Fossiles of life has been found as old as 3.8 billion years. Multi-cellular life is less than a billion years old.
quote:
Never forget: Evolution has no goal, no drive to make the 'end product'. It only fits populations of organisms into their enviornment, with perhaps a few, odd and unfortunate experiments on the side. Are we one of the 'odd and unfortunate' experiments gone wrong?
Do we have anything else than common sense with which to judge your statement? It's a difficult question to answer, but we do have apes. They are genetically close to us, and they are intelligent (to a lesser degree than us, but anyway). They are on the verge of extinction, out-competed by us. I'm thinking of gorillas, chimpanzie, and orangutans.
Someone, I don't recall who said "It's better to be smart than dumb." Our common sense says that if you are intelligent, you are better equipped to deal with threats. Thus, intelligence has survival-value.
quote:
Could have other, far away, sentient species have died out (read: killed themselves off like idiots)?
Are we actually alone in a universe roiling with life?
I really hope not. I want to meet an alien before I die.
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
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"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2003 : 11:16:59 [Permalink]
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| Ben Bova has a very good article on this very question in the current Analog: Science Fiction/Science Fact, titled Isaac Was Right, N=1. His conclusion is that we are the only sentient lifeform at least in the galaxy, probably in the universe. |
"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
Posted - 03/26/2003 : 09:18:10 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
Ben Bova has a very good article on this very question in the current Analog: Science Fiction/Science Fact, titled Isaac Was Right, N=1. His conclusion is that we are the only sentient lifeform at least in the galaxy, probably in the universe.
I was unable locate the article on the net, so I can't comment on it. When you read most of Asimov's sci-fi you'll notice that non-human intelligence is rare indeed. However, Asimov died about 15 years ago (on my birthday  not sure what year) and science has made radical progress since then. His opinion has to be viewed in the light of that. |
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"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 03/26/2003 : 10:47:25 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
However, Asimov died about 15 years ago (on my birthday not sure what year) and science has made radical progress since then. His opinion has to be viewed in the light of that.
Yes, his passing was a major bummer. I'm sure he would've been very disappointed had science not made radical progress since then.
You should be able to find a copy of Analog at your local magazine store. Here we have a store call Sawyer's News that has all of the most popular magazines. Do you have anything comparable in your area? |
"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
| Edited by - walt fristoe on 03/26/2003 10:48:15 |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9691 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2003 : 05:54:20 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Donnie B.
filthy, that's not a very uncommon suggestion at all. I happen to agree, based on a simple observation: there has been life on Earth for some four billion years, but complex multicellular organisms have only been around for the last 550 million years, and sentience has only appeared during the last million or so (maybe more or less, depending on your definition of sentience). So on that basis alone, the percentage of worlds with life that also include sentient life is less than one in a thousand.
That's actually included in Drake's original equation. Generally, scientists says guess ten thousand years is the average window of contact. By then, the aliens has either destroyed itself, or advanced beyond the point when they consider contact with lesser spices to be meaningful. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
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| Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 03/28/2003 06:03:42 |
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