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 Predictions: how often they / we miss.....
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  04:20:35  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
Sometimes, when it comes to prognostications, otherwise sober people, and many not-so-sober ones, are little more accruate than the late Nostradamus or the current Sylvia Browne.
quote:
Preachers, psychics, scientists can miscalculate when forecasting the future

BY RICHARD N. OSTLING

Associated Press


2004 was supposed to have been quite a year. Osama bin Laden was said to have died, Colin Powell was elected America's first black president and the Hoover Dam collapsed.

Well, no. But such were predictions from psychics collected by Skeptical Inquirer, the magazine of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. CSICOP is among groups led by atheistic philosopher Paul Kurtz that pooh-pooh both parapsychology and mainstream religion.

If past predictions from psychics had come true, by now we'd be zipping around in cheap solar-powered cars on Earth, or traveling to Saturn, or America would be reeling from inundation of the Atlantic Coast or from a nuclear attack launched by Russia.


But don't be too hard on these folks; after all, if not for them, would skepticism be nearly as much fun...?


"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9688 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  14:07:43   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
From the link above:
quote:
• In 1981, Microsoft founder Bill Gates announced that "640K (of computer memory) ought to be enough for anybody."

Hasn't this supposed quote of Bill Gates been confirmed an urban legend?

Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder.
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ronnywhite
SFN Regular

501 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  14:52:15   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ronnywhite a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse

From the link above:
[quoteBill Gates announced that "640K ... "


Late 70s guy from local bank said their mainframe had 12K... they got along fine for a long time. Brother's ipod now has 8000 songs. Decade or 2 probably be movies. Fricken amazing. There should be some psychics using this site that can come up with some good stuff.

Ron White
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9688 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  16:18:45   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
Well, the big Tsunami that hit last Christmas was predicted by a SFN-member.
However, it struck a week earlier than the timeframe within which it was predicted.

Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder.
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  16:28:45   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
"Short Sights." I'm sure some of the quotes are true. I'm equally sure that at least a couple are not.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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Chippewa
SFN Regular

USA
1496 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  16:36:57   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Chippewa's Homepage Send Chippewa a Private Message
Best predictions are still from Criswell. Wikipedia provides a fun read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Amazing_Criswell

quote:
Criswell was longtime friends with actress Mae West, once predicting her impending rise to the position of President of the United States, whereupon she, Criswell, and showman Liberace would ride a rocket to the moon.


And there is also Criswell's famous opening and closing statements:

"Greetings, my friends. We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. And remember, my friends...future events such as these...will affect you, in the future."
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  18:22:55   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by ronnywhite

Brother's ipod now has 8000 songs. Decade or 2 probably be movies.
Um, the Video iPod came out two weeks ago.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13477 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  18:42:58   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.

"Short Sights." I'm sure some of the quotes are true. I'm equally sure that at least a couple are not.

quote:
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." --Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.


This one is my favorite quote on that site for strangly sentimental reasons. I once considered writing a movie script based on the downfall of this particular record executive. It was to be a comedy of course. I just never got around to it. Imagine going through life with people always saying to you, “so you're the guy who turned down the Beatles?”

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  20:12:56   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Hey, folks, don't forget this thread from last year!

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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ronnywhite
SFN Regular

501 Posts

Posted - 10/23/2005 :  20:27:12   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ronnywhite a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.

... the Video iPod ... [/br]


Totally cool. I was thinkin' 8000 movies, but with enough wireless bandwidth, essentially, it's here. Clickem' Loadem' and go. It will get inexpensive, too.

quote:
Originally posted by Kil

... Guitar music on way out ... [/br]



What was he thinking? It was all going to be techo-noise? Or maybe the tuba was the future of rock???

Prediction I liked was by president of Hoover Corporation post-WW2 when fission was all the rage... foresaw day when everyone would have a "nuclear-powered vacuum cleaner." Mine's cordless- that's a little different- but there are batteries, not uranium.

Ron White
Edited by - ronnywhite on 10/23/2005 21:36:45
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furshur
SFN Regular

USA
1536 Posts

Posted - 10/24/2005 :  06:52:05   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send furshur a Private Message
quote:
Prediction I liked was by president of Hoover Corporation post-WW2 when fission was all the rage... foresaw day when everyone would have a "nuclear-powered vacuum cleaner." Mine's cordless- that's a little different- but there are batteries, not uranium.

Here are some great uses of radiation trying to bring that prediction to life.
quote:
By the 1920'S many physicians, beauticians, and self-appointed "epilation specialists" had begun to treat women with radiation for the removal of "superfluous hair." One New York physician, Dr. Albert C. Geyser, developed a "harmless" method of hair removal that involved cumulative dosages of at least 500 roentgens over a twelve-week period of radiation treatment.

quote:
Although radiation is no longer employed in the American beauty parlor, the use of X-ray equipment to fit shoes still lingers in a number of communities. The equipment is used mainly on the feet of children. As of 1960, the use of the shoe-fitting fluoroscope had been banned in twenty-nine states. The Michigan Department of Health, for example, found shoe-fitting machines that emitted as many as 65 roentgens (r) a minute.

I was a radiation worker on a submarine and I recieved about 0.5 R (whole body) over the course of 4 years!


If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know.
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