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 China may be hiding 300 bird flu deaths
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/23/2005 :  14:10:19  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
Well gee... I thought I'd start some fearmongering. I could have kept it secret until confirmed. That would be the prudent thing to do under the circumstances, but what the heck. And, I'm sure the news media will be distorting the story by this evening anyway. (I also posted this at the BAUT site for those of you that post on both forums. And, we can discuss more politics here.)
quote:
Date: Wed 23 Nov 2005
From: Christian Griot <christian.griot@ivi.admin.ch>
Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine, Tue 22 Nov 2005 [edited]
<http://www.faz.net/s/RubFC06D389EE76479E9E76425072B196C3/Doc%
7EE59730997A1B043CF80447F73E70BB84F%7EATpl%7EEcommon%7EScontent.html>


WHO Avian Influenza Expert Says 300 Dead In China
-------------------------------------------------
Dr. Masato Tashiro, a Japanese WHO consultant, believes that China
has had 300 human deaths from avian influenza and is hiding the true
extent of the disease from the rest of the world. Dr. Masato Tashiro,
Director of the WHO Collaborating Center on Influenza at the National
Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, and head of the Department
of Virology of the National Institute of Infectious Disease (Japan),
astonished colleagues with this information during a speech at a
recent retirement dinner for a fellow virologist, Hans-Dieter Klenk.

Having just returned from the Hunan province of China on behalf of the World
Health Organization (WHO), [Dr. Masato Tashiro] claimed that a reliable source
had provided him with details of the true nature of the H5N1 virus in
China. "We are systematically deceived," he is reported to have said.

Tashiro visited China on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) in
Hunan province. His laboratory, at the National Institute for Infection
Research in Tokyo, as one of the Asian points of contact for the United
Nations, had been particularly entrusted with investigations into avian
influenza in Asia and China. Dr. Masato gave his lecture in the University of
Marburg Clinic before some the most outstanding virologists in the world and
shocked the meeting with his unauthorized data [report] from inside China.

The Japanese virologist [said he] firmly believes in the reliability of the
source and its data. The secrecy of the Peking government is still causing
concern as it was at the beginning of the SARS epidemic disease, complained
Tashiro. At least 5 medical co-workers who should be reporting on the
situation in the provinces were arrested, and [other] publication-willing
researchers were threatened with punishments [he said].

--
Christian Griot
<christian.griot@ivi.admin.ch>

[There have been recurrent reports of human cases of avian influenza
in China. So far, none have been independently substantiated. This
report has more significance than most, coming from a WHO-supported
virologist. However, Dr. Tashiro's report is based on 2nd-hand
information and requires independent authentication. Further
information is requested. - Mod.CP]
This is from a very reliable site, The Infectious Disease Society, daily e-mail alert system.** It is wise to heed their moderator's note of caution. The moderator is very wise.

What disturbs me the most will be if the reports are true about jailing medical providers. During the SARS outbreak I don't believe anyone was jailed. The government kept denying reports but the medical community was sending e-mail reports out that the IDS was passing on to everyone.

On the other hand, it is so unlikely China had only a few H5N1 cases. If their frequent exposure to precursor strains gave them a more immune population it would be possible. But it seemed odd.

Then there was the very eye opening (to me) response when SARS occurred. It was mind boggling the Chinese government officials really did have old fashioned people in power that truly either didn't understand the benefit of revealing the SARS problem or preferred to handle it internally purely for political ego. I don't mean that to stir up a political discussion. But those are the best words I can find to explain it. I can not fathom national ego when it means you cover up disasters of this nature. It's one thing to pretend your dam didn't fail, but quite another to pretend an epidemic isn't occurring.

With the SARS cases, the national government was much more forthcoming than the local guys. They even fired a mayor or two over it. The whole thing was difficult to understand from my cultural perspective.

I suppose, as here, their government leaders are not medical experts as ours aren't. That means we have non-scientists making decisions that would be much better if made by scientists.


But I digress...I suspect CNN and company will get wind of this by tonight's news. They do so love a disaster and a scandal.


**Note of caution: Don't sign up for their list serve. Instead bookmark the page and check it when you want to. The daily e-mails are constantly flooded with viruses. They seemed to take few precautions with their mailing list database.

Edited by - beskeptigal on 11/23/2005 14:13:37

ronnywhite
SFN Regular

501 Posts

Posted - 11/23/2005 :  18:44:47   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ronnywhite a Private Message
You're probably right. The this bird flu is bad stuff... reason to sweat, maybe.

Ron White
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/24/2005 :  00:29:18   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
Google search on Dr. Masato Tashiro indicates he is an upstanding scientist in the virology field.

He works for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institutes of Health, Japan.

Japanese CMSP Panel/Board Members
Dr. Masato Tashiro (1996- )
Director
Department of Viral Disease and Vaccine Control
National Institute of Infectious Diseases
4-7-1 Gakuen, Musashimurayama
Tokyo 208-0011, Japan

The Mission Statement

Nothing on the mainstream news yet. It'll be interesting to see how China responds.
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Dude
SFN Die Hard

USA
6891 Posts

Posted - 11/24/2005 :  01:43:41   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Dude a Private Message
quote:
I can not fathom national ego when it means you cover up disasters of this nature. It's one thing to pretend your dam didn't fail, but quite another to pretend an epidemic isn't occurring.



Asian cultures, not that I am an expert on them or anything, seem to disaprove of anything that can be seen as weakness.

And it is especially important for them to now show weakness to potential or real enemies.

Same thing, more or less, for totalitarian governments. No weakness can be shown.

Honestly though, I hope they are not covering up human fatalities from this flu.


Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson

"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin

Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/24/2005 :  12:46:16   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
Well kucharek on the BAUT forum found an article in a German paper claiming the info is either a misquote or an Internet myth. I await his reading of the original article I found in German (with a very poorly Google translated page) and the IDS' follow up on the topic.
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/24/2005 :  13:31:48   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
And we have the answer.

quote:
Date: Thu 24 Nov 2005
From: "Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN" <mtashiro@nih.go.jp>


Statement from Dr. Masato Tashiro
---------------------------------
I am surprised to read the report in ProMED-mail, Avian influenza,human - East
Asia (180): China, RFI [part 1] {archive number 20051123.3399).

First of all, it is not correct. Therefore, I would ask you to correct it.

In my presentation at the meeting in Marburg, I stated that WHO's
official numbers of H5N1 human cases are only based on laboratory
confirmed cases. It should be therefore an iceberg phenomenon. Due
to poorly organized surveillance and information sharing systems in
many affected countries including China, it is reasonable to consider
that more cases have occurred actually. We have heard many 'rumors'
or unauthorized information which we cannot confirm. In this context,
I talked about a few examples of non-authorized information and rumors
about Asian countries which I received through private channels. I
clarified that I do not know the original sources and I cannot confirm
whether they are true, how these numbers were derived and what
laboratory tests and epidemiological investigation were done.

Therefore, the article cited in ProMed-mail is incorrect and
misleading. I did not receive any interview during my stay in Germany.
I did not say anything that I believe the figures of the unauthorized
information.

My message at the meeting was that international societies should help
China to establish and perform nationwide surveillance and information
sharing systems. I do not think that the Chinese Authority will
conceal the facts from the world. Since the SARS event, they are
collaborative to WHO. But they may have still limited capacity to
monitor all human cases particularly in rural areas.

--
Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN
WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Surveillance on Influenza,
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo
<mtashiro@nih.go.jp>

[The article published in the Tue 22 Nov 2005 edition of the Frankfurter
Allgemeine, a reputable German newspaper, was referred to ProMED-mail
independently by two reliable correspondents. ProMED-mail was not able to
verify the accuracy of the newspaper report prior to posting and we
regret propagating inaccurate information [but see [2] below]. The hysteria
surrounding the outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 avian influenza in East Asia, and the
associated threat of an imminent pandemic of human influenza, has generated a
great deal of misinformation fueled by journalists competing to establish a
presence in the field, particularly with regard to events in the People's
Republic of China. We are grateful to Dr. Tashiro for clarifying his
position. - Mod.CP]

[2]
Date: 24 Nov 2005
From: Arnon Shimshony <arnon@promedmail.org>


The Israeli daily "Haaretz" included the following information in a front-page
article earlier today [24 Nov 2005] (translation from Hebrew):

"One of the participants in the meeting, Prof Hans-Dieter Klenk from Marburg
University in Germany, confirmed -- in an interview with "Haaretz"
yesterday [23 Nov 2005] -- the quote from Dr Masato Tashiro of the Japanese
Ministry of Health. "Dr Masato presented a well-detailed table, in Chinese,
which included more than 300 human fatalities, resulting from avian influenza,
recorded in China during recent years", said Prof Klenk yesterday. "He
[namely Tashiro - A.S.] said that he had received the unofficial report during
his visit to China in recent weeks", said Klenk". End translated passage.

According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine, Dr Masato sharply criticised the
Chinese authorities, saying they are "deliberately misleading the West"; this
was denied by Prof Klenk. [As I understand it, the denial means that the said
criticism was not said by Masato - A.S.].

Assaf Uni, the "Haaretz" reporter who interviewed Klenk, is a reputable one.

--
Arnon Shimshony
ProMED-mail Animal Disease and Zoonoses Moderator
Associate-Professor, Koret School of Veterinary Medicine
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
<arnon@promedmail.org>
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/26/2005 :  12:20:26   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
And a further clarification:

IDS site
quote:

[In view of conflicting reports in the media about what Dr Masato Tashiro
actually said in Germany, ProMED sent him some questions, to which he has
kindly replied -- see below. - Mod.JW]

Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 08:36:53 +0900
From: "Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN" <mtashiro@nih.go.jp>


Thank you for your mail. My answers are:

1) you were indeed in Hunan Province

No, I was not there this time.

2) the dates you were there

I have visited there before.

3) you were part of a WHO mission

I was not a member of the WHO mission this time.

4) you showed a slide in Germany showing more than 300 deaths from avian flu

As an example of unauthorized information, I showed a slide which I received
from a private source. This indicates more than 200 deaths distributed in
several provinces.

5) you were told that 7 of the cases resulted from human-to-human transmission.

The information I received indicated some human-to-human transmission cases,
although details were not clear.

Regards,

Masato Tashiro
NIID, Tokyo

It is amazing how the news reporting really is so much like the game of telephone. Apparently this guy's little talk raised quite the stir. The following post on the site included a denial by China of hiding any cases, and a note about where the information had been published.
quote:
China is not covering up any human cases of bird flu, and the Japanese expert
has never visited China on a WHO mission, the WHO spokesman confirmed,
according to Mao. The Japanese expert, Masato Tashiro, said last week in
Germany that avian influenza has killed 300 people in China, including 7 cases
caused by human-to-human transmission, according to reports on the Internet
portals including "New Scientist" and "WorldNet daily".
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ronnywhite
SFN Regular

501 Posts

Posted - 11/26/2005 :  16:54:42   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ronnywhite a Private Message
Only 200 documented deaths as opposed to 300... well, I can't say "Whew, that's a relief!" was what came into my mind, considering the rush to destroy or innoculate all of these fowl in the Asian countries appears based on the theory that we can "get the jump on it" before it manages to mutate into a strain that's highly-transmissible in humans, if my understanding of these things is correct. Still, "maybe reason to sweat."

Ron White
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/27/2005 :  13:43:30   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
The other interesting fact here is bird flu has now been found in every section of China, north, south, east and west.
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