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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 11/23/2005 : 14:10:19
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Well gee... I thought I'd start some fearmongering. I could have kept it secret until confirmed. That would be the prudent thing to do under the circumstances, but what the heck. And, I'm sure the news media will be distorting the story by this evening anyway. (I also posted this at the BAUT site for those of you that post on both forums. And, we can discuss more politics here.)quote: Date: Wed 23 Nov 2005 From: Christian Griot <christian.griot@ivi.admin.ch> Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine, Tue 22 Nov 2005 [edited] <http://www.faz.net/s/RubFC06D389EE76479E9E76425072B196C3/Doc% 7EE59730997A1B043CF80447F73E70BB84F%7EATpl%7EEcommon%7EScontent.html>
WHO Avian Influenza Expert Says 300 Dead In China ------------------------------------------------- Dr. Masato Tashiro, a Japanese WHO consultant, believes that China has had 300 human deaths from avian influenza and is hiding the true extent of the disease from the rest of the world. Dr. Masato Tashiro, Director of the WHO Collaborating Center on Influenza at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, and head of the Department of Virology of the National Institute of Infectious Disease (Japan), astonished colleagues with this information during a speech at a recent retirement dinner for a fellow virologist, Hans-Dieter Klenk.
Having just returned from the Hunan province of China on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO), [Dr. Masato Tashiro] claimed that a reliable source had provided him with details of the true nature of the H5N1 virus in China. "We are systematically deceived," he is reported to have said.
Tashiro visited China on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) in Hunan province. His laboratory, at the National Institute for Infection Research in Tokyo, as one of the Asian points of contact for the United Nations, had been particularly entrusted with investigations into avian influenza in Asia and China. Dr. Masato gave his lecture in the University of Marburg Clinic before some the most outstanding virologists in the world and shocked the meeting with his unauthorized data [report] from inside China.
The Japanese virologist [said he] firmly believes in the reliability of the source and its data. The secrecy of the Peking government is still causing concern as it was at the beginning of the SARS epidemic disease, complained Tashiro. At least 5 medical co-workers who should be reporting on the situation in the provinces were arrested, and [other] publication-willing researchers were threatened with punishments [he said].
-- Christian Griot <christian.griot@ivi.admin.ch>
[There have been recurrent reports of human cases of avian influenza in China. So far, none have been independently substantiated. This report has more significance than most, coming from a WHO-supported virologist. However, Dr. Tashiro's report is based on 2nd-hand information and requires independent authentication. Further information is requested. - Mod.CP]
This is from a very reliable site, The Infectious Disease Society, daily e-mail alert system.** It is wise to heed their moderator's note of caution. The moderator is very wise.
What disturbs me the most will be if the reports are true about jailing medical providers. During the SARS outbreak I don't believe anyone was jailed. The government kept denying reports but the medical community was sending e-mail reports out that the IDS was passing on to everyone.
On the other hand, it is so unlikely China had only a few H5N1 cases. If their frequent exposure to precursor strains gave them a more immune population it would be possible. But it seemed odd.
Then there was the very eye opening (to me) response when SARS occurred. It was mind boggling the Chinese government officials really did have old fashioned people in power that truly either didn't understand the benefit of revealing the SARS problem or preferred to handle it internally purely for political ego. I don't mean that to stir up a political discussion. But those are the best words I can find to explain it. I can not fathom national ego when it means you cover up disasters of this nature. It's one thing to pretend your dam didn't fail, but quite another to pretend an epidemic isn't occurring.
With the SARS cases, the national government was much more forthcoming than the local guys. They even fired a mayor or two over it. The whole thing was difficult to understand from my cultural perspective.
I suppose, as here, their government leaders are not medical experts as ours aren't. That means we have non-scientists making decisions that would be much better if made by scientists.
But I digress...I suspect CNN and company will get wind of this by tonight's news. They do so love a disaster and a scandal.
**Note of caution: Don't sign up for their list serve. Instead bookmark the page and check it when you want to. The daily e-mails are constantly flooded with viruses. They seemed to take few precautions with their mailing list database.
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Edited by - beskeptigal on 11/23/2005 14:13:37
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ronnywhite
SFN Regular
501 Posts |
Posted - 11/23/2005 : 18:44:47 [Permalink]
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You're probably right. The this bird flu is bad stuff... reason to sweat, maybe. |
Ron White |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 11/24/2005 : 01:43:41 [Permalink]
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quote: I can not fathom national ego when it means you cover up disasters of this nature. It's one thing to pretend your dam didn't fail, but quite another to pretend an epidemic isn't occurring.
Asian cultures, not that I am an expert on them or anything, seem to disaprove of anything that can be seen as weakness.
And it is especially important for them to now show weakness to potential or real enemies.
Same thing, more or less, for totalitarian governments. No weakness can be shown.
Honestly though, I hope they are not covering up human fatalities from this flu.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong. -- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n. The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 11/24/2005 : 12:46:16 [Permalink]
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Well kucharek on the BAUT forum found an article in a German paper claiming the info is either a misquote or an Internet myth. I await his reading of the original article I found in German (with a very poorly Google translated page) and the IDS' follow up on the topic. |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 11/24/2005 : 13:31:48 [Permalink]
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And we have the answer.
quote: Date: Thu 24 Nov 2005 From: "Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN" <mtashiro@nih.go.jp>
Statement from Dr. Masato Tashiro --------------------------------- I am surprised to read the report in ProMED-mail, Avian influenza,human - East Asia (180): China, RFI [part 1] {archive number 20051123.3399).
First of all, it is not correct. Therefore, I would ask you to correct it.
In my presentation at the meeting in Marburg, I stated that WHO's official numbers of H5N1 human cases are only based on laboratory confirmed cases. It should be therefore an iceberg phenomenon. Due to poorly organized surveillance and information sharing systems in many affected countries including China, it is reasonable to consider that more cases have occurred actually. We have heard many 'rumors' or unauthorized information which we cannot confirm. In this context, I talked about a few examples of non-authorized information and rumors about Asian countries which I received through private channels. I clarified that I do not know the original sources and I cannot confirm whether they are true, how these numbers were derived and what laboratory tests and epidemiological investigation were done.
Therefore, the article cited in ProMed-mail is incorrect and misleading. I did not receive any interview during my stay in Germany. I did not say anything that I believe the figures of the unauthorized information.
My message at the meeting was that international societies should help China to establish and perform nationwide surveillance and information sharing systems. I do not think that the Chinese Authority will conceal the facts from the world. Since the SARS event, they are collaborative to WHO. But they may have still limited capacity to monitor all human cases particularly in rural areas.
-- Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Surveillance on Influenza, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo <mtashiro@nih.go.jp>
[The article published in the Tue 22 Nov 2005 edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine, a reputable German newspaper, was referred to ProMED-mail independently by two reliable correspondents. ProMED-mail was not able to verify the accuracy of the newspaper report prior to posting and we regret propagating inaccurate information [but see [2] below]. The hysteria surrounding the outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 avian influenza in East Asia, and the associated threat of an imminent pandemic of human influenza, has generated a great deal of misinformation fueled by journalists competing to establish a presence in the field, particularly with regard to events in the People's Republic of China. We are grateful to Dr. Tashiro for clarifying his position. - Mod.CP]
[2] Date: 24 Nov 2005 From: Arnon Shimshony <arnon@promedmail.org>
The Israeli daily "Haaretz" included the following information in a front-page article earlier today [24 Nov 2005] (translation from Hebrew): "One of the participants in the meeting, Prof Hans-Dieter Klenk from Marburg University in Germany, confirmed -- in an interview with "Haaretz" yesterday [23 Nov 2005] -- the quote from Dr Masato Tashiro of the Japanese Ministry of Health. "Dr Masato presented a well-detailed table, in Chinese, which included more than 300 human fatalities, resulting from avian influenza, recorded in China during recent years", said Prof Klenk yesterday. "He [namely Tashiro - A.S.] said that he had received the unofficial report during his visit to China in recent weeks", said Klenk". End translated passage. According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine, Dr Masato sharply criticised the Chinese authorities, saying they are "deliberately misleading the West"; this was denied by Prof Klenk. [As I understand it, the denial means that the said criticism was not said by Masato - A.S.]. Assaf Uni, the "Haaretz" reporter who interviewed Klenk, is a reputable one.
-- Arnon Shimshony ProMED-mail Animal Disease and Zoonoses Moderator Associate-Professor, Koret School of Veterinary Medicine Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel <arnon@promedmail.org>
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 11/26/2005 : 12:20:26 [Permalink]
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And a further clarification:
IDS sitequote:
[In view of conflicting reports in the media about what Dr Masato Tashiro actually said in Germany, ProMED sent him some questions, to which he has kindly replied -- see below. - Mod.JW]
Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 08:36:53 +0900 From: "Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN" <mtashiro@nih.go.jp>
Thank you for your mail. My answers are:
1) you were indeed in Hunan Province
No, I was not there this time.
2) the dates you were there
I have visited there before.
3) you were part of a WHO mission
I was not a member of the WHO mission this time.
4) you showed a slide in Germany showing more than 300 deaths from avian flu
As an example of unauthorized information, I showed a slide which I received from a private source. This indicates more than 200 deaths distributed in several provinces.
5) you were told that 7 of the cases resulted from human-to-human transmission.
The information I received indicated some human-to-human transmission cases, although details were not clear.
Regards,
Masato Tashiro NIID, Tokyo
It is amazing how the news reporting really is so much like the game of telephone. Apparently this guy's little talk raised quite the stir. The following post on the site included a denial by China of hiding any cases, and a note about where the information had been published.
quote: China is not covering up any human cases of bird flu, and the Japanese expert has never visited China on a WHO mission, the WHO spokesman confirmed, according to Mao. The Japanese expert, Masato Tashiro, said last week in Germany that avian influenza has killed 300 people in China, including 7 cases caused by human-to-human transmission, according to reports on the Internet portals including "New Scientist" and "WorldNet daily".
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ronnywhite
SFN Regular
501 Posts |
Posted - 11/26/2005 : 16:54:42 [Permalink]
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Only 200 documented deaths as opposed to 300... well, I can't say "Whew, that's a relief!" was what came into my mind, considering the rush to destroy or innoculate all of these fowl in the Asian countries appears based on the theory that we can "get the jump on it" before it manages to mutate into a strain that's highly-transmissible in humans, if my understanding of these things is correct. Still, "maybe reason to sweat." |
Ron White |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 11/27/2005 : 13:43:30 [Permalink]
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The other interesting fact here is bird flu has now been found in every section of China, north, south, east and west. |
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