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Baza
New Member
United Kingdom
47 Posts |
 Posted - 11/09/2006 : 13:03:02
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Just wondered if anyone could help me with a thought I had which has gone around and around my head so many times that I just don't seem to be able to see the "wood for the trees". Its to do with the regular statistic we get here in the UK about accidents and alcohol. eg http://www.alcoholconcern.org.uk/files/20030905_112530_Statistics%20on%20Alcohol%20and%20Health.pdf#search='accidents%20due%20to%20alcohol'
It seems to me that if say 20% (easier on the math) of accidents involve alcohol then 80% don't. Therefore you are 4 times more likely to have an accident when sober. So it must be safer to drink and drive. I fel that there is a mistake here in my thinking...I just can't see it. Can anyone get me out of this loop?
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Baza |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2006 : 13:31:25 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Baza
Just wondered if anyone could help me with a thought I had which has gone around and around my head so many times that I just don't seem to be able to see the "wood for the trees". Its to do with the regular statistic we get here in the UK about accidents and alcohol. eg http://www.alcoholconcern.org.uk/files/20030905_112530_Statistics%20on%20Alcohol%20and%20Health.pdf#search='accidents%20due%20to%20alcohol'
It seems to me that if say 20% (easier on the math) of accidents involve alcohol then 80% don't. Therefore you are 4 times more likely to have an accident when sober. So it must be safer to drink and drive. I fel that there is a mistake here in my thinking...I just can't see it. Can anyone get me out of this loop?
I've been saying it for years! Drive drunk and face the oncoming traffic with confidence! 
As vastly more people mistakenly drive sober than drunk, it is entirely likely that their accident total will be higher. However, statistically, the alcohol-related-related accidents will be higher as a percentage.
Does that make sense? Somebody better at statistics than I needs to explain this.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
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Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Gorgo
SFN Die Hard
USA
5310 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2006 : 13:33:53 [Permalink]
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Those who drink will statistically be higher as a percentage than those who die in fatal accidents.
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I know the rent is in arrears
The dog has not been fed in years
It's even worse than it appears
But it's alright-
Jerry Garcia
Robert Hunter
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| Edited by - Gorgo on 11/09/2006 13:35:22 |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2006 : 13:34:45 [Permalink]
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Yeah, to compare the safety of driving drunk with driving sober, you'd have to look at the number of accidents per mile driven or a similar metric. If the 80% of accidents which don't involve alcohol occur within a total of a million road miles, while the 20% of accidents involving alcohol occur in just 10,000 road miles, then that 20% of accidents would be occuring in about 1% of the total mileage driven, and that's a lot.
I don't know the real milage figures, those are just examples. The point is that for DUI to be as safe as sober driving, then the 20% of accidents that involve alcohol have to be spread out over at least 20% of the total mileage driven by all drivers. But the rate of DUI is much less than an average of 1 drunk for every 5 drivers on the road. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
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Baza
New Member
United Kingdom
47 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2006 : 13:51:02 [Permalink]
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| Thanks Filthy. So if I've got right. The drunk driver has a higher chance of being in an accident because they have taken alcohol, not because they form a minority of accidents overall. So what is important is how many people drink and drive and how much as a percentage of that figure, are the accidents. Therefore the actual amount of accidents due to alcohol compared to the total of people drink driving must be much higher. Yes I see it now. |
Baza |
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Baza
New Member
United Kingdom
47 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2006 : 13:52:53 [Permalink]
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| Thanks to the others your points are well taken |
Baza |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2006 : 14:06:53 [Permalink]
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| Yep if an equal amount of drivers were drunk and sober then the % would be closer to 95% of the accidents which involving drinking... |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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