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Zebra
Skeptic Friend
USA
354 Posts |
 Posted - 06/20/2008 : 22:07:19
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As filthy mentioned in another thread, it's being reported that ice (thus water) has been found on Mars.
The way I heard today it was something like this: (bolding added)
Proof! Water Ice Found on Mars
Scientists said today they have "found proof" of water ice on Mars away from the polar ice caps, a discovery made by NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander.
The finding is a crucial first step toward learning whether the ground on Mars is hospitable, because all life as we know it requires water. Now scientists can get on with the business of studying the chemistry of Mars dirt in more detail.
When the probe took photos of a ditch it had dug four days before, scientists noticed that about eight small crumbs of a bright material had disappeared. They concluded those crumbs had been water ice buried under a thin layer of dirt that vaporized when Phoenix exposed them to the air.
"It's with great pride and a lot of joy I announce today we have found proof that this hard material really is water ice and not some other substance," Phoenix principal investigator Peter Smith of the University of Arizona, Tucson said at a briefing Friday.
The finding had been discussed tentatively yesterday, but in a press conference today, researchers left no doubts.
Phoenix's robotic arm first revealed the crumbs about 5 cm deep in the trench called "Dodo-Goldilocks" on June 15. By June 19, they had vanished. If the crumbs had been salt, they wouldn't have disappeared, scientists said, and if the ice had been made of carbon dioxide, they wouldn't have vaporized.
"What this tells us is we found what we're looking for," said Mark Lemmon, a Phoenix co-investigator from Texas A&M University. "This tells us that we've got water ice within reach of the [robotic] arms, which means that we can continue the investigation." |
The Phoenix has gas & soil analyzers on board, but as far as I can tell this conclusion is being made solely on the observation that white chunks disappeared over 4 days once exposed to the Martian environment. The alternative explanation for the white chunks seems to have been a salt, with that being ruled out because a salt chunk wouldn't sublime under the conditions on Mars.
[Same information on the JPL/NASA site for Phoenix, same claim that this is "proof".]
Has anyone run across other details from these folks as they joyfully present that they've found exactly they'd most hoped? [Which a prudent scientist might consider would be reason for extra caution & proof, watch out for 'confirmation bias' & all that.]
Maybe it's just me, but just because some white chunks disappear over 4 days and water seems a likely explanation doesn't mean it's proven to be water. I'm delighted that they're happy, but I'd like to see tracings from a mass spectrometer.
*Man* those chemistry classes seem like a long time ago! OK, a substance will sublime when pressure & temperature conditions are below the "triple point" on that substance's phase diagrams.
Is there any other material which is solid at the temperature & atmospheric conditions below the surface of Martian soil but could sublime once exposed to the atmosphere? (There's been at least one simulation suggesting that ice could do this on Mars: see here.)
They haven't discussed, as far as I can tell, why this couldn't have been CO2, which is present on Mars, though apparently most of the solid CO2 is thought to be at the south pole of Mars (Phoenix is at 68 degrees north). Nor have they discussed other possibilities other than a salt v. water....would ammonia or methane be possible? (I don't have the patience to research the temperature & pressure at 68 degrees N on Mars, then the triple point of each of these substances. So sue me.)
Call me a curmudgeon, but I'd like to hear (or read) more indication of this "proof" of which they speak. At least more discussion as to what the other possibilities might be & what scientific reasons there are to discard all other possibilities based solely on noticing that some white chunks disappeared.
[Edited to complete a sentence I'd left hanging as I wiped the foam-of-ranting from the corners of my mouth.]
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Edited by - Zebra on 06/20/2008 22:10:07
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 06/20/2008 : 23:25:20 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Zebra
(I don't have the patience to research the temperature & pressure at 68 degrees N on Mars, then the triple point of each of these substances. So sue me.) |
Well, I've got a little patience.
At the landing site, they expected temps between -73 C and -33 C (200 K to 240 K). Surface pressure is 700 to 900 Pa (call it 800), which is about 7.9 thousandths of an atmosphere.
Phase diagram for CO2 shows it would be a gas at such temperatures unless under 125 to 600 times more pressure (guesstimates).
Phase diagram for water suggests that water would be ice at 800 Pa right up until about 240 K, at which point it would sublimate.
I can't find a phase diagram for ammonia which isn't scaled using billions of Pascals or thousands of degrees, which leads me to believe that there's nothing particularly interesting about its behavior under Martian conditions. At 1 atmosphere, it would always be liquid at Martian temperatures. I suspect that it'd always be a gas at Martian pressures.
Finding a phase diagram for methane is even more difficult, unless you're talking methane hydrates, which we're not. Pure methane would always be a gas at 1 atm at the low temps on Mars, though.
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- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Zebra
Skeptic Friend
USA
354 Posts |
Posted - 06/21/2008 : 00:37:01 [Permalink]
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Thanks, Dave W., for finding that info & linking to it.
This site addresses the question "How do you know it's water & not dry ice" (& some other reader questions), but I'm still interested in knowing whether there's anything else the scientists have considered could be... |
I think, you know, freedom means freedom for everyone* -Dick Cheney
*some restrictions may apply |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 06/21/2008 : 13:27:28 [Permalink]
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But why should this so startling? After all, it's no more than a conformation of a pretty solid prediction. And that's all very well and good, and I raised a glass also, but I'm a lot more interested in the find than the finding, as, I'm sure, are the science teams working the project.
Of course, the question that nobody is currently mentioning is: what about 'life' on Mars, microbal though it might/probably/undoubtly be? And if such is found, and I doubt that Phonex will find it, this trip at least, what impact will it have? Beyond giving another, blistering tweak to the YEC nose and providing the rest of us with the amusement of some frantic apologetics, of course.
The biggest thing that I can see to come out of that is mainly some support of another pretty good prediction: that the universe has produced life where ever conditions are suitable, and evolution has kept it going. Just like here.
Anyhow, all we can do now is wait -- come to think of it, AiG's running a little late on this'n. Usually they flap the Bible at every & any, new discovery almost as soon as it's publicized.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 06/21/2008 : 14:20:44 [Permalink]
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Not to mention that hydrogen and oxygen are the most and third most common elements in the universe.
Oxygen is 10 times more common than Nitrogen.
The water theory can be privilege out of sheer statistical likelihood (but I am pretty sure the egg heads at NASA have other reasons as well).
As for the presence of microbial life... It might prove difficult to investigate, as we are not sure what to look for. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 06/21/2008 : 15:08:17 [Permalink]
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I would think, for no really good reason, that life, if such should be found, might resemble the ancient cynobacteria that pretty much kicked it off here on earth. It is concivable that only traces of such will be uncovered, if anything.
I really wish that the lander could drill out and analyze a nice, long core sample.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Zebra
Skeptic Friend
USA
354 Posts |
Posted - 06/21/2008 : 16:21:44 [Permalink]
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I still would prefer if they'd at least add a one-liner to explain why they're so ready to call an apparent observation of sublimation "proof".
It could be as simple as, "Water ice is the only substance which could sublimate in the environmental conditions present at the Phoenix's location", adding if necessary the qualifier "of the chemicals thought to be present on Mars" after the word "substance".
As currently reported, in the media & on the Phoenix/JPL website, it comes across to me as potentially indistinguishable for most of their potential audience from "We really want it to be true, so therefore it is true!"
edited to add: is it unreasonable to ask these scientists in the public eye to set an example by explaining the basis for their assertion of "proof"? |
I think, you know, freedom means freedom for everyone* -Dick Cheney
*some restrictions may apply |
| Edited by - Zebra on 06/21/2008 16:24:06 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 06/21/2008 : 18:52:29 [Permalink]
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| edited to add: is it unreasonable to ask these scientists in the public eye to set an example by explaining the basis for their assertion of "proof"? |
Not at all.
I was wondering the same thing... what else could sublimate/evaporate under the conditions present at the lander site?
I suspect that they wouldn't go making that particular announcement unless they has good reason...
I'll be following this NASA mission a bit more closely now at any rate.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 06/21/2008 : 22:40:38 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Zebra
I still would prefer if they'd at least add a one-liner to explain why they're so ready to call an apparent observation of sublimation "proof".
It could be as simple as, "Water ice is the only substance which could sublimate in the environmental conditions present at the Phoenix's location", adding if necessary the qualifier "of the chemicals thought to be present on Mars" after the word "substance".
As currently reported, in the media & on the Phoenix/JPL website, it comes across to me as potentially indistinguishable for most of their potential audience from "We really want it to be true, so therefore it is true!"
edited to add: is it unreasonable to ask these scientists in the public eye to set an example by explaining the basis for their assertion of "proof"?
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I expect that they will be more thorough on the actual publication. After all, this is only a quick announcement for the general public.
But, you are right that it seems a bit short. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 06/22/2008 : 04:02:17 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Simon
Originally posted by Zebra
I still would prefer if they'd at least add a one-liner to explain why they're so ready to call an apparent observation of sublimation "proof".
It could be as simple as, "Water ice is the only substance which could sublimate in the environmental conditions present at the Phoenix's location", adding if necessary the qualifier "of the chemicals thought to be present on Mars" after the word "substance".
As currently reported, in the media & on the Phoenix/JPL website, it comes across to me as potentially indistinguishable for most of their potential audience from "We really want it to be true, so therefore it is true!"
edited to add: is it unreasonable to ask these scientists in the public eye to set an example by explaining the basis for their assertion of "proof"?
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I expect that they will be more thorough on the actual publication. After all, this is only a quick announcement for the general public.
But, you are right that it seems a bit short.
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Correct, but as mentioned, this is only the scientific version of a written photo op, and worse yet, it is in that least reliable of information dissemination: the national news media. Through carelessness or stupidity, something might have been lost in the transmission.
I'm sure that exacting and detailed, preliminary papers are being prepared even as we speak, only waiting for an analysis on the material to publish.
If that stuff ain't water ice, there are going to be some (more) red faces and road-rashed reputations over there at NASA, and nobody wants that. Except AiG & fellow travelers, o'course.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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| Edited by - filthy on 06/22/2008 04:07:18 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 06/23/2008 : 14:34:38 [Permalink]
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Late, but here'tis: If Nasa has indeed found (more) ice on Mars, it would neither be a major surprise nor a matter of worry for young-earth creationists.1 After all, we've known for a long time that there is plenty of ice on Mars (in the polar ice caps) and that a permafrost layer probably extends considerably beyond the ice caps.2
In fact, this particular icy discovery should cause a cold feeling for evolutionists, who would much prefer to find liquid water but instead have found only this scant evidence of subsurface ice. And of course, the very idea that liquid or frozen water on Mars is a “big thing” comes straight from the evolutionary faith that where there's water, life will follow. In fact, that's the entire premise of today's Martian landers.
The ice on Mars may possibly be, in part, a frozen remnant of a global Mars flood, which has been theorized by some creationists to have occurred near the same time as Noah's flood—perhaps even as an extension of it. Even today, the Martian ice caps contain enough water to cover the entire Martian surface if the ice were to melt.3 For an excellent creationist overview of the “Flood on Mars” hypothesis, see esteemed creationist physicist Russ Humphreys' article “Water on Mars: A Creationist Response.”
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Don't miss a trick, do they?
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Zebra
Skeptic Friend
USA
354 Posts |
Posted - 06/23/2008 : 20:03:34 [Permalink]
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"The Flood" on Mars? 
But their piece did include this caveat as an example of selective skepticism, in the first footnote:
| This is assuming the appearance of “ice” was not actually due to an image problem or due to Martian wind blowing dust over the salt, for example. |
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I think, you know, freedom means freedom for everyone* -Dick Cheney
*some restrictions may apply |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 07:14:45 [Permalink]
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WTF!
Why would Mars 'need' a flood anyway. It's not like the planet had anybody for God to pass his pissy mood on! |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Paulos23
Skeptic Friend
USA
446 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 08:26:19 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Simon
WTF!
Why would Mars 'need' a flood anyway. It's not like the planet had anybody for God to pass his pissy mood on!
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There are some religious nuts that think the flood waters God put on the Earth where moved to Mars. Why they think this I have no idea. |
You can go wrong by being too skeptical as readily as by being too trusting. -- Robert A. Heinlein
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 08:36:45 [Permalink]
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paulos23 said:
| There are some religious nuts that think the flood waters God put on the Earth where moved to Mars. Why they think this I have no idea. |
They have to invent a reason for water to be on Mars.
This particular bit of apologetics will also let them say that microbial life, if discovered on Mars, was put there by their deity.
Pathetic, as usual.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 09:27:28 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Paulos23
Originally posted by Simon
WTF!
Why would Mars 'need' a flood anyway. It's not like the planet had anybody for God to pass his pissy mood on!
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There are some religious nuts that think the flood waters God put on the Earth where moved to Mars. Why they think this I have no idea.
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Might be a way to answer the 'where did the water go to after the Flood' question. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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"Proof! Water Ice Found on Mars"
