|
|
|
Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 01/27/2009 : 08:08:53 [Permalink]
|
Well, I'd go as far as saying that Fidel is a popular democratic pick.
But, considering how close Cuba is from Haiti and the lack of budget of Cuba, I'd consider the zombie alternative more likely... |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
 |
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
 Posted - 02/02/2009 : 07:06:47 [Permalink]
|
Official Scorecard
2009 SFN Psychic Contest
All results and answers apply to the period starting Feb 1st 2009, through Dec 31 2009, all answers should be given in USD$.
-No answer may be generalized or given a range, saying the oil price will be between 81 and 82 dollars or saying it will either be 81.78 or 87.81 will disqualify your answer. Cryptic answers and quatrains will also be disqualified. All invalid or disqualified answers are worth 0 points.
Earthquakes
1) Predict the epicenter of the strongest earthquake according to the Richter scale, provide a city name or map coordinates; general areas and countries are not valid answers. 10 points for a correct prediction within 200km of the actual result, -1 point for each 200km further from the epicenter. 0 points if the result is further than 2000km from the actual result.
Paulos 23:Bainbridge Island, Washington, USA
BigPapaSmurf:25km N. of Kodiak, Alaska, USA
Dave W.:Clam Gulch, Alaska, USA
Pleco:S. Sumatra:-4.265 Lat, 101.190 Lon
Cuneiformist:Colombia:-1.5 Lat, -72.5 Lon
Filthy:San Francisco, California, USA
Moakley:Talcahuano, Chile
Robb:Medan, Sumatra
Vilhang:Shizuoka, Japan
Simon:Medan, Sumatra
2) Predict the exact strength to the tenth on the Richter, 3 points
Paulos 23:8.7
BigPapaSmurf:8.1
Dave W.:8.6
Pleco:8.4
Cuneiformist:7.0
Filthy:7.2
Moakley:7.9
Robb:7.6
Vilhang:7.0
Simon:7.5
Hurricanes
3) Predict the name of the Atlantic storm with the strongest pressure in millibars. Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda, Alpha, Beta… 4 points for correct pick
Paulos 23:Bill
BigPapaSmurf:Danny
Dave W.:Kate
Pleco:Larry
Cuneiformist:Grace
Filthy:George? No George Filthy, you get Grace instead
Moakley:Kate
Robb:Fred
Vilhang:Mindy
Simon:Henri
4) Predict the Atlantic storm which will do the most damage in USD$ cost, to the United States, according to NOAA. 4 points for correct pick
Paulos 23:Nicholas
BigPapaSmurf:Fred
Dave W.:Fred
Pleco:Grace
Cuneiformist:Grace
Filthy: George? No George Filthy, you get Grace instead
Moakley:Kate
Robb:Fred
Vilhang:George? Where the hell did George come from, you get Grace
Simon:Erika
5) Predict the number of named Atlantic storms that will impact the US shores with at least hurricane strength. 2 points for correct pick
Paulos 23:7
BigPapaSmurf:4
Dave W.:3
Pleco:4
Cuneiformist:1
Filthy:4
Moakley:5
Robb:3
Vilhang:5
Simon:3
Commodities http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html
6) Predict the price of a barrel of light sweet crude(nym) at the New Year 2010. 5 points if within 3$, -1 point for each 3$ further off, zero points minimum.
Paulos 23:68
BigPapaSmurf:78
Dave W.:73
Pleco:92
Cuneiformist:72.50
Filthy:85
Moakley:93.03
Robb:45
Vilhang:55
Simon:50
7) Predict the price of an ounce of gold(cmx) at the New Year 2010. 5 points if within 25$, -1 point for each 25$ further off, zero points minimum.
Paulos 23:810
BigPapaSmurf:842
Dave W.:962
Pleco:764
Cuneiformist:790.40
Filthy:790
Moakley:1231.20
Robb:888
Vilhang:999
Simon |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 02/02/2009 11:44:57 |
|
|
|
Robb
SFN Regular
USA
1223 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2009 : 08:02:30 [Permalink]
|
| Can I still change my earthquake answer? City location to Medan. |
Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2009 : 08:47:49 [Permalink]
|
| Thats fine Robb, there is no advantage to picking late on that one, unless it happened yesterday. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2009 : 11:43:46 [Permalink]
|
Possible Points Psychic Scale
0 Points...: You are so not psychic that you could pass for psychic if you just said the opposite of what you were thinking.
1-3 Points.: Could fool infants and less gifted chimpanzees.
4-6 points.: Doomed to a life of showing grandchildren the same card trick every christmas.
7-10 points.: You could open a power crystal and magnet therapy clinic and keep it in business for at least 8 months.
11-15 points: Larry King is calling, but only if you have a new book to shill.
16-20 points: I see death threats from Sylvia Brown in your future.
21-29 points: Larry king has offered to become your personal body servant so that he may collect your sweat drops of enlightenment.
30-40 points: You are in serious danger of being "black bagged" as a "person of interest".
41-55 points: Do you like machines that show you pictures? Did I mention the restraints and eye clamps?
56-70 points: We were going to burn you at the stake, but you saw it coming.
71-84 points:(praise sent via telepathy)
85 points(max): For you are the Kwisatz Haderach! |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 02/02/2009 11:48:29 |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2009 : 13:59:00 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
Official Scorecard
2009 SFN Psychic Contest |
Especially for the numeric answers, you should do a "wisdom of crowds" thing, averaging all the responses. Then, score the averages as if they were a person's entry, and we'll see if all of us together are more psychic than any of us individually.
I'd be glad to help by figuring out latitudes and longitudes to figure out the locations' geographic means. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2009 : 06:22:20 [Permalink]
|
Well usually the picks are so bad we won't need to check the lat/lon.
I predict this years winning score will be...10 points. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2009 : 08:55:08 [Permalink]
|
The average entry:
Strongest Earthquake Location
1) 20.34, -170.75, about 1,350 km west of Honolulu, or 415 km NNW of Johnston Atoll.
Strength On The Richter Scale
2) 7.8
Hurricane With the Lowest Pressure
3) Henri
Hurricane With Most $Damage To USA
4) Henri
Number Of Hurricanes To Strike USA
5) 4
Price Of A Barrel Of Light Sweet Crude
6) 71.15
Price Of An Ounce Of Gold
7) 897.66
Price Of Pork Bellies
8) 0.9276
Value Of The DJIA
9) 9621
Dollar/Euro Conversion Rate
10) 0.948 Euro = 1 Dollar
Deadpool
11a) Fidel Castro
11b) Ted Kennedy
11c) Billy Graham
11d) Kim Jong Il
11e) Nancy Reagan
Name Of The Top WW Movie
12) Harry Potter, half blood
Take Of The Top Movie
13) $884M
Number Killed in Worst Terror Attack
14) 709
Location Of Worst Terror Attack
15) 39.15, 17.30, which is in the Mediterranean. The nearest largish city is Crotone, Italy, about 15 km WSW. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2009 : 11:18:28 [Permalink]
|
Good thinking Dave, I bet it will work too. We might need to drop lowest/highest I think Paulos is really throwing the bell curve on # 14.
Reminds me of a story I heard of some guy in the 1800s trying to prove that Joe Average was worthless at estimating. He had some jar with beans in it or something and asked average people to guess how many, long story short, no one ever guessed the answer but the average of their guesses was the exact number. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2009 : 11:50:37 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
Good thinking Dave, I bet it will work too. We might need to drop lowest/highest I think Paulos is really throwing the bell curve on # 14. |
Too tough to do with the geographic entries, so I treated them all the same: a straight average.| Reminds me of a story I heard of some guy in the 1800s trying to prove that Joe Average was worthless at estimating. He had some jar with beans in it or something and asked average people to guess how many, long story short, no one ever guessed the answer but the average of their guesses was the exact number. |
Yeah, that's the "Wisdom of Crowds" that I mentioned. Personally, I think crowds are more prone to madness than wisdom, but we'll have to wait and see. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2009 : 13:24:50 [Permalink]
|
| Yeah Francis Gaulton, that's the guy...amusing how he was trying to prove the opposite of his results. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2009 : 14:13:15 [Permalink]
|
Hmmm... Calling all math geeks!
I'm pretty sure that just averaging all the latitudes and longitudes together and calling the result the "geographic average" (as I did above) is the wrong thing to do. However, the only other way I can think to do it is to convert all the lat/long pairs to (X,Y,Z) coordinates, find the arthimetic mean of them, and then convert that result back into a lat/long pair, and it is giving me even stranger results. I mean, if you leave out Paulos23's entry for #15, all the rest of the entries are within 69° longitude and 32° latitude of each other, all around Europe, but I'm getting an average that's way out in the Northern Pacific...
Ah, I found a mistake in my spreadsheet. And the new average locations are...
Strongest Earthquake Location
1) 20.31, -17.87, about 100 km SW of Nouadhibou, Mauritania.
Location Of Worst Terror Attack
15) 33.36, 16.98, which is still in the Mediterranean. But now the nearest largish city is Misurata, Libya, about 225 km SW. Maybe the terrorists will blow up a cruise ship. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2009 : 05:50:00 [Permalink]
|
Dave, the North coordinates on the terror attack are (roughly)
39n: Origins Game Fair 09
17n: Hyderabad, Pakistan
24n: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
32n: Tel Aviv, Isreal
55n: Nightclub in Moscow, Russia
51n: London, England
30n: Cairo, Egypt
51n: London, England
48n: Paris, France
31n: Jerusalem, Isreal/Palestine
bout 37.8n, did you count London twice? |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2009 : 06:47:35 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
bout 37.8n, did you count London twice? |
I got 39.15N with a straight average of the latitudes, which is the wrong thing to do on a sphere. For example, the latitude of the point halfway between 0N,0E and 80N,170E is very close to 50N, not 40N. In fact, checking my math with just that problem results in the halfway point being at 49.89N,7.05E (not 40N,85E), so it seems my latest calculations may be correct. But then they failed on a different simple check.
So I re-work the spreadsheet again, and I now have a third set of numbers. I have no idea what's correct anymore, but here they are (this is why I need a math genius like Ricky to show up here and set things right):
Strongest Earthquake Location
1) 53.57, 1.45, about 70 km north of North Walsham, England.
(Note that none of the three places I've listed so far have been hotbeds of seismic activity.)
Location Of Worst Terror Attack
15) 45.52, 24.60, almost smack in the middle of Romania.
(And yes, that is counting London twice.)
If anyone else wants to play with the numbers...
Here are the raw latitude-longitude pairs
for the Earthquake location:
47.643 -122.541
58.069 -152.395
60.231 -151.394
-4.265 101.190
-1.500 -72.500
37.775 -122.418
-36.717 -73.117
3.583 98.667
34.983 138.383
3.583 98.667
And for Terror Attack Location:
39.961 -82.999
25.379 68.368
24.633 46.717
32.083 34.800
55.750 37.600
51.500 -0.117
30.058 31.229
51.500 -0.117
48.867 2.300
31.783 35.217 |
|
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2009 : 13:04:36 [Permalink]
|
| Well the effort is certainly appreciated, even if it is confusing. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
SFN 2009 Psychic Contest, Enter by Feb1, 2009!
