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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 02/07/2009 : 03:49:14
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I don't know either, but there are those who are willing to hazard a guess. Intelligent civilisations are out there and there could be thousands of them, according to an Edinburgh scientist.
The discovery of more than 330 planets outside our solar system in recent years has helped refine the number of life forms that are likely to exist.
The current research estimates that there are at least 361 intelligent civilisations in our Galaxy and possibly as many as 38,000.
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And:
| While researchers often come up with overall estimates of the likelihood of intelligent life in the universe, it is a process fraught with guesswork; recent guesses put the number anywhere between a million and less than one. |
That last could be somewhere in the ball park. 
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 09:14:27 [Permalink]
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Did I miss it, or does that article completely neglect to mention the Drake Equation? Maybe the researchers themselves didn't refer to it, but that seems unlikely, no?
Anyway, it's all guesswork. It has to be. The odds of life formation, intelligence, civilization and the survival times of civilizations are all blind guesses based upon one (or fewer) samples, so even calling them "odds" is a stretch. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 12:23:39 [Permalink]
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I agree that there is no way of knowing, or even guessing with any kind of confidence, how many civilizations there might be in the galaxy. Our galaxy is huge, but we can't even agree whether this immensity makes being able to locate other sentient life more, or less likely.
Most of the factors used in the Drake Equation are actually unknown. We have a fair estimate now of the first factor, the rate of star formation in the galaxy. It's possible we will have a good idea of the second factor (what fraction of stars have planets) in a few years. The third factor, the number of planets per "planeted" star that has a potential for life, is a factor that would only be a wild guess so far. The last four factors are completely unknowable at this time.
Since every one of them would have to be known with a fair degree of accuracy, we know nothing.
Well, almost nothing: We do know that intelligent life is possible in our galaxy, because we're in it ourselves. So the answer is greater than zero, and might be greater than one.
The Drake Equation is good for one thing at this time: Illustrating the importance of our ignorance. There's nothing wrong with it, other than the fact that we can't even begin to use it yet.
IMHO, the study liked to in the OP is just wild speculation dressed up as it it was meaningful. It's like prematurely using the Drake Equation to make a conclusion. A wholly meaningless conclusion.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 02/07/2009 12:24:49 |
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular
Norway
1273 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 14:20:13 [Permalink]
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| I don't know hwo there can be any serious speculation on this when the mechanisms for abiogenesis are still uncertain. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 20:29:25 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
I don't know hwo there can be any serious speculation on this when the mechanisms for abiogenesis are still uncertain.
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Well, the precise mechanism of abiogenesis (which may well vary from world to world) may not be as important as the emerging sense that life is likely to arise anywhere and anytime the conditions are right.
There is increasing evidence that life arose on the primordial earth immediately after liquid water was available.
For carbon-based life (likely to be the primary type to develop throughout the known universe), it seems that only an energy source, liquid water, and the presence of common carbon compounds are needed for that first replicating molecule to appear.
We don't yet know, maybe never will, just what that molecule was. There might have been thousands, even millions, of possible molecules that could have done the job, but the descendants of the lucky first one probably monopolized the free amino acids in the early environment.
I suspect (though don't know) that the number that will eventually be plugged confidently into the Drake Equation for the "fl" factor will be 1. On that, I suspect Drake is already right. Though, once again, we don't know.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 02/07/2009 20:33:18 |
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular
Norway
1273 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 22:03:43 [Permalink]
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may not be as important as the emerging sense that life is likely to arise anywhere and anytime the conditions are right.
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Why is this an emerging sense? And like I said, we don't know the right conditions anyway.
It's not enough to say that water = life, that's far too dumbed down. All we know for sure is that a planet exactly like Earth with the exact same history as Earth would have a chance of life. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 22:22:50 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
I don't know hwo there can be any serious speculation on this when the mechanisms for abiogenesis are still uncertain. |
One doesn't need to know anything about the internal mechanisms of a slot machine to be able to measure the odds of various payouts. One doesn't need to know anything about the internal workings of the brain or anything about society to be able to state that the historical data suggests that so-many percent of marriages will end in divorce.
All one needs to estimate the odds of life occuring on a particular planet is a decent sample of planets with and without life. We don't have that (and may never have it), but the mechanisms for abiogenesis (on Earth) are not needed at all. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/07/2009 : 22:44:49 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
may not be as important as the emerging sense that life is likely to arise anywhere and anytime the conditions are right.
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Why is this an emerging sense? And like I said, we don't know the right conditions anyway.
It's not enough to say that water = life, that's far too dumbed down. All we know for sure is that a planet exactly like Earth with the exact same history as Earth would have a chance of life.
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That "sense" largely comes from the relatively new study of extremophiles. If present-day organisms can thrive in a hugely diverse number of environments of heat, cold, pressure, acidity, alkalinity, etc. (some even require radioactivity to survive), then it's not a stretch to imagine that their ultimate ancestors might have arisen in one or another very extreme environment. That "sense," again, is not established science, just a logical extension of what is presently known. More research is needed.| It's not enough to say that water = life, that's far too dumbed down. All we know for sure is that a planet exactly like Earth with the exact same history as Earth would have a chance of life. |
Well first, I did not say "water = life." That was a straw man argument.
I said, | ... [I]t seems that only an energy source, liquid water, and the presence of common carbon compounds are needed for that first replicating molecule to appear. |
The earth needed to have cooled off enough for some liquid water to exist, before life could start. Prior to that, all the other ingredients were at hand.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 02/07/2009 22:50:51 |
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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2009 : 05:19:41 [Permalink]
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I think aliens are likely out there, (way way way out there,) and have not visited us yet. Though this is a topic worthy of speculation, on the lighter side, a variant of the Drake Equation could be applied thusly:
N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
where:
N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might expect to be able to drink beer at any given future time,
and
R* is the rate of star formation in our galaxy.
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets where alcohol molecules can exist.
ne is average number of planets that can potentially support life on planets where alcohol results from fermentation.
fl is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop beer.
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life intelligent enough to appreciate not only beer, but wine – and perhaps even cocktails.
fc is the fraction of the above that are sufficiently advanced enough to be able to operate taverns, bars, and nightclubs.
L is the expected lifetime of such a civilization for the period that it can locate beers across interstellar space. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2009 : 07:06:12 [Permalink]
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Now, we're talking civilization, Chip!
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2009 : 16:06:56 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
fl is obviously 1.0, right?
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At least from our point of view, so far, though fi might actually be the galactic norm. If so, there's plenty of beer out there, (and [fi] would imply many aliens have bodies capable of absorbing and enjoying alcohol,) but Earth is still a special place due to our wine, vodka, tequila, gin, rum, whiskey, bourbon and bars.
This all ties in with further speculations about the idea of possible alien economics and trade, but only if we're applying our own concepts to them, and if they exist, they're aliens, so they have no obligation to proceed as we do. With no concept of a bar, they might combine alcohol with business deals as well as entertainment in completely unusual ways. 
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2009 : 17:58:40 [Permalink]
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| Many human civilizations developed beer and beer-like beverage independently, so, I'd agree that f=1 |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2009 : 06:07:12 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Simon
Many human civilizations developed beer and beer-like beverage independently, so, I'd agree that f=1
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"Many" does not make f=1. Now, what was it they said about American beer and making love in a canoe?
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2009 : 06:45:23 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Originally posted by Simon
Many human civilizations developed beer and beer-like beverage independently, so, I'd agree that f=1
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"Many" does not make f=1. Now, what was it they said about American beer and making love in a canoe?
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They're both fucking close to water! 
A great truth, eh?
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2009 : 15:42:30 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Originally posted by Simon
Many human civilizations developed beer and beer-like beverage independently, so, I'd agree that f=1
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"Many" does not make f=1. Now, what was it they said about American beer and making love in a canoe?
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They're both fucking close to water!
A great truth, eh? |
Yes. Which reminds me of business trip I took years ago with an executive from Germany. We were on the plane in the States and for fun he tried a Bud-Light. He said: "Hmmm, surprisingly pleasant, though not really beer, more like soda-pop. You know, kids could drink this stuff."
Me: "Kids do drink that stuff." |
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How many civilizations are there in the galaxy?
