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 100 years left for humanity?
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the_ignored
SFN Addict

2562 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2010 :  16:53:48  Show Profile Send the_ignored a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Guess who thinks so? The guy who helped beat smallpox.

Fenner told The Australian newspaper that 'homo sapiens will become extinct, perhaps within 100 years.'

'A lot of other animals will, too,' he added.

'It's an irreversible situation. I think it's too late. I try not to express that because people are trying to do something, but they keep putting it off.'


Even worse?
Fenner blames the onset of climate change for the human race’s imminent demise.


Well, you know how the convservative religious right feel about that! I'm sure they'll encourage everyone to get right on it!


>From: enuffenuff@fastmail.fm
(excerpt follows):
> I'm looking to teach these two bastards a lesson they'll never forget.
> Personal visit by mates of mine. No violence, just a wee little chat.
>
> **** has also committed more crimes than you can count with his
> incitement of hatred against a religion. That law came in about 2007
> much to ****'s ignorance. That is fact and his writing will become well
> know as well as him becoming a publicly known icon of hatred.
>
> Good luck with that fuckwit. And Reynold, fucking run, and don't stop.
> Disappear would be best as it was you who dared to attack me on my
> illness knowing nothing of the cause. You disgust me and you are top of
> the list boy. Again, no violence. Just regular reminders of who's there
> and visits to see you are behaving. Nothing scary in reality. But I'd
> still disappear if I was you.

What brought that on? this. Original posting here.

Another example of this guy's lunacy here.

Dude
SFN Die Hard

USA
6891 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2010 :  18:32:10   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Dude a Private Message  Reply with Quote
You'd think these old guys would learn not to humiliate themselves in public...

He is a microbiologist, not a climatologist or a systems/population biologist. He should probably have chosen to remain silent rather than ramble off a load of unfounded bullshit.


Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson

"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin

Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth
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the_ignored
SFN Addict

2562 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2010 :  20:09:29   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send the_ignored a Private Message  Reply with Quote
hah! I was waiting for someone to say that! That's why I emphasized that he was in biology, not climatology. Too bad they didn't print or link to, all the evidence that he used, if any.

Yeah. He's ninety-five years old.

Still, while I hope he's wrong, we should probably take that as a warning sign, due to all the climatologists who do say that it's a problem.

That second link has links to some actual advice. What I find interesting though no one else will likely be surprised by is this:

In the same week that the country’s most respected scientific organization released a series of reports underscoring the need for action on climate change, some of the nation's most accomplished climate scientists testified in Congress on the vitriol and abuse they have faced simply for doing their jobs: conducting research and publishing unavoidable conclusions.

>From: enuffenuff@fastmail.fm
(excerpt follows):
> I'm looking to teach these two bastards a lesson they'll never forget.
> Personal visit by mates of mine. No violence, just a wee little chat.
>
> **** has also committed more crimes than you can count with his
> incitement of hatred against a religion. That law came in about 2007
> much to ****'s ignorance. That is fact and his writing will become well
> know as well as him becoming a publicly known icon of hatred.
>
> Good luck with that fuckwit. And Reynold, fucking run, and don't stop.
> Disappear would be best as it was you who dared to attack me on my
> illness knowing nothing of the cause. You disgust me and you are top of
> the list boy. Again, no violence. Just regular reminders of who's there
> and visits to see you are behaving. Nothing scary in reality. But I'd
> still disappear if I was you.

What brought that on? this. Original posting here.

Another example of this guy's lunacy here.
Edited by - the_ignored on 06/20/2010 20:10:05
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Dude
SFN Die Hard

USA
6891 Posts

Posted - 06/20/2010 :  20:32:59   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Dude a Private Message  Reply with Quote
There is a lot of speculation about the consequences of climate change, no doubt.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for trying to prevent further damage to the environment, but I'm not convinced this all ends in some disaster movie catastrophe. Adverse consequences? Sure, plenty of horrible things are already happening. Glaciers melting away which will cause water shortages, shifting of farmlands, bee colony die offs, extreme weather...but...

Extinction in 100 years? Sounds pretty absurd, and from what I can tell he just pulled that out of his ass.


Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson

"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin

Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth
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Ebone4rock
SFN Regular

USA
894 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  04:14:56   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Ebone4rock a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Climate change is an ongoing process that will only end when our sun dies. Just 6000 years ago the Sahara desert used to contain a vast river system and a lush ecosystem filled with life. 100000 or more years ago my own home was covered by massive amounts of ice. Millions of years ago the western United States was a tropical climate filled with giant dinosaurs.
It's just the way shit works.
There is no way that in a mere 100 years we will be extinct. We are like cockroaches. We will adapt.

Haole with heart, thats all I'll ever be. I'm not a part of the North Shore society. Stuck on the shoulder, that's where you'll find me. Digging for scraps with the kooks in line. -Offspring
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  05:10:58   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message  Reply with Quote
This is a real problem, as climate change is not all that we have to deal with. There is pollution of the biosphere on a grand scale to add to the normal warming/cooling cycles of the the planet. Further, every scumbag of a political leader in the world, not excluding our own, wants to go to war and despoil the Earth some more. I remind: Vietnam still suffers from Agent Orange applications.

Taken all in, while I think a century it cutting it a tad short, it might not be too far off the mark -- unless we radically change our ways. Which most likely ain't gonna happen.

I mean, whaddaya gonna eat when the seas are no longer producing enough fish -- the bluefin tuna is already on the brink of extinction; the soils so contaminated with pesticides and commercial fertilizers that crops won't grow productively, and water is no longer fit to drink without treatment? When our domestic food animals begin to die off due to these conditions?

It's a pretty day today, albeit a hot one here in NC. I wonder how many more we'll see....

Edit: I have read that the population bomb has already gone off.




"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

Edited by - filthy on 06/21/2010 06:03:47
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular

Norway
1273 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  05:41:16   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send On fire for Christ a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Personally I think the human race is far too adaptable to go extinct in 100 years due to the relatively slow process of climate change. Think about some of the extreme environments on Earth that people have inhabited for thousands of years, is he actually predicting that there will be no inhabitable environments left on earth in 100 years? But that's not all he's saying by predicting "extinction", one thing that makes humans unique is the extent to which we can manipulate our environment, If the Earth was too hostile we have the technology to protect ourselves against it. I think there are probably underground nuclear bunkers in existence right now which could be lived in for 100 years. He shouldn't have used the word "extinction" IMO.

Another old guy predicting doom and gloom...

http://www.skepticfriends.org/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=12971

Edited by - On fire for Christ on 06/21/2010 06:42:29
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sailingsoul
SFN Addict

2830 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  10:12:33   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send sailingsoul a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Certainly he's not thinking that the remedy for reducing resources and over population is death of the weakest. The problem is solved way before extinction occurs.

I don't see why he's being beat up for his comment/ beliefs and I don't see how his age is a factor, unless he has age diminished capacity. This belief or phobia is a very common one for humans throughout history. A large percentage of adult people, of all ages, believe that the end is a lot nearer, than 100 years. Every born again xain is vested into believing Armageddon is around the corner. Victims of that old marketing tool "buy now (salvation), while your opportunity lasts". I don't believe there has ever been a time without worry of imminent pending doom, by a segment of the population, throughout history. His belief is nothing new, nothing different than usual. At least he's not exploiting that fear and fraudulently selling salvation. SS

There are only two types of religious people, the deceivers and the deceived. SS
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Ebone4rock
SFN Regular

USA
894 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  10:23:53   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Ebone4rock a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Originally posted by sailingsoul

Certainly he's not thinking that the remedy for reducing resources and over population is death of the weakest. The problem is solved way before extinction occurs.

I don't see why he's being beat up for his comment/ beliefs and I don't see how his age is a factor, unless he has age diminished capacity. This belief or phobia is a very common one for humans throughout history. A large percentage of adult people, of all ages, believe that the end is a lot nearer, than 100 years. Every born again xain is vested into believing Armageddon is around the corner. Victims of that old marketing tool "buy now (salvation), while your opportunity lasts". I don't believe there has ever been a time without worry of imminent pending doom, by a segment of the population, throughout history. His belief is nothing new, nothing different than usual. At least he's not exploiting that fear and fraudulently selling salvation. SS


Because it is still ridiculous no matter how many people over the course of history have believed or currently believe the doom and gloom.

Haole with heart, thats all I'll ever be. I'm not a part of the North Shore society. Stuck on the shoulder, that's where you'll find me. Digging for scraps with the kooks in line. -Offspring
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astropin
SFN Regular

USA
970 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  12:32:26   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send astropin a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Originally posted by filthy

This is a real problem, as climate change is not all that we have to deal with. There is pollution of the biosphere on a grand scale to add to the normal warming/cooling cycles of the the planet. Further, every scumbag of a political leader in the world, not excluding our own, wants to go to war and despoil the Earth some more. I remind: Vietnam still suffers from Agent Orange applications.

Taken all in, while I think a century it cutting it a tad short, it might not be too far off the mark -- unless we radically change our ways. Which most likely ain't gonna happen.

I mean, whaddaya gonna eat when the seas are no longer producing enough fish -- the bluefin tuna is already on the brink of extinction; the soils so contaminated with pesticides and commercial fertilizers that crops won't grow productively, and water is no longer fit to drink without treatment? When our domestic food animals begin to die off due to these conditions?

It's a pretty day today, albeit a hot one here in NC. I wonder how many more we'll see....

Edit: I have read that the population bomb has already gone off.






Seems to me that these things would likely lead to a population drop......not complete extinction.

I would rather face a cold reality than delude myself with comforting fantasies.

You are free to believe what you want to believe and I am free to ridicule you for it.

Atheism:
The result of an unbiased and rational search for the truth.

Infinitus est numerus stultorum
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sailingsoul
SFN Addict

2830 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  16:01:53   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send sailingsoul a Private Message  Reply with Quote
by Ebone4rock Because it is still ridiculous no matter how many people over the course of history have believed or currently believe the doom and gloom.

Ridiculous it is, no argument from me on that. SS

There are only two types of religious people, the deceivers and the deceived. SS
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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13477 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  19:14:09   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Humans are very adaptable. They live in just about every climate the world has to offer. I doubt that human extinction is only 100 years off. Life as we know it might be. A very big die off might be. But extinction? Naaaa.. Not yet. For all we know, a good knocking back will be our salvation, at least until we figure out how to fuck things up again...

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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ThorGoLucky
Snuggle Wolf

USA
1487 Posts

Posted - 06/21/2010 :  22:50:15   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit ThorGoLucky's Homepage Send ThorGoLucky a Private Message  Reply with Quote
ultracrepidarian: (n., adj.) a person who gives opinions beyond his scope of knowledge.

ultracrepidate: (v.i.) to venture beyond one's province; presume.
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 06/22/2010 :  02:33:40   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Yeah, "The end is nigh!" has been shrieked out many times over the centuries, mostly by those over-dosed on religion, flim-flam artists and common lunatics. But this time, the situation is a little different; this time, there are some very real and very serious problems that we can see and measure.

I too, think 100 years is a little, um, optimistic, but what about 1,000 years, hm? Anybody wanna make a book on that one? I thought not....

We have got to clean up our act before that act finally cleans us up.




"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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moakley
SFN Regular

USA
1888 Posts

Posted - 06/22/2010 :  04:48:45   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send moakley a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Originally posted by Kil

Humans are very adaptable. They live in just about every climate the world has to offer. I doubt that human extinction is only 100 years off. Life as we know it might be. A very big die off might be. But extinction? Naaaa.. Not yet. For all we know, a good knocking back will be our salvation, at least until we figure out how to fuck things up again...
That's the first thought that occurred to me. And why if movies could be predictors of the future I would consider "I am Legend" to be both disturbing and hopeful.

Life is good

Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous
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Dude
SFN Die Hard

USA
6891 Posts

Posted - 06/22/2010 :  14:53:22   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Dude a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Originally posted by Ebone4rock

Climate change is an ongoing process that will only end when our sun dies. Just 6000 years ago the Sahara desert used to contain a vast river system and a lush ecosystem filled with life. 100000 or more years ago my own home was covered by massive amounts of ice. Millions of years ago the western United States was a tropical climate filled with giant dinosaurs.
It's just the way shit works.
There is no way that in a mere 100 years we will be extinct. We are like cockroaches. We will adapt.


The term "climate change" in this thread is specifically dealing with human induced changes. We are shifting things on a massive scale and if we don't get our shit together some pretty bad things are going to happen.

My complaint with the old guy is that he is taking a page from Pauling (Nobel prize winning chemist who decided to tell people it was a good idea to eat huge doses of vitamin C, speaking well outside his established field of expertise, and it turns out he was very very much in error). A microbiologist isn't an authority on human population biology, climate science, or systems biology. Now if he were saying that climate change might cause the extinction of saccharomyces cerevisiae... maybe I'd be paying attention to what he has to say.


Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson

"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin

Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth
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