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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2011 : 22:07:06 [Permalink]
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Dave.....
Will Liz come home as soon as practical, or not?
Do you plan to go to Japan to join her at any time in the near future?
The radiation thing is troublesome, but your analysis is reassuring.
Bill
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2011 : 22:09:41 [Permalink]
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CNN just reported that there is a "core group of 50 workers" who are NOT leaving the plant, despite facing potentially lethal radiation levels on site.
At close last night, the electric company's stock was down 42%! Earlier this afternoon I heard that the PM has told the company's board that if they don't fix the problems, the company will have no future (and with stock values heading quickly towards zero, that seems certain). I can't imagine, though, that the 50 workers are thinking of the shareholders' bottom line as they go about their extremely dangerous work. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
 Posted - 03/15/2011 : 22:31:36 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by bngbuck
Dave.....
Will Liz come home as soon as practical, or not? |
Before the earthquake, Liz had planned on coming home at the end of the semester (mid/late April). Those plans have not yet changed, as she is more worried about her GPA than anything else. It's up to the administrators of Temple University Japan (TUJ) to figure our if they're going to re-open or allow students to complete their classes online or whatever.
This coming weekend was already going to be a long one for TUJ students, with Monday and Tuesday (the 21st and 22nd) off. Liz had already planned on spending the long weekend being a silly tourist down south in Kyoto. But since TUJ decided to cancel classes all this week, also, and Liz was suffering from cabin fever in a possible high-radiation zone, she decided to start her touristy stuff several days early (she says the Bullet Train is "made of awesome" and she wishes she could ride it home instead of being stuck on an airplane).
Kyoto is another 100+ miles away from the reactors. So even though the evacuation zone hasn't increased in radius since I made my map, Liz is almost twice as far away as she was when staying in Tokyo. She can more-than-safely wait in Kyoto for a while before making a decision to go back to Tokyo or to come home via the Osaka airport near Kyoto.| Do you plan to go to Japan to join her at any time in the near future? |
I have neither the cash nor the passport necessary to go Japan. My mother-in-law (who is worried sick, and getting more worried by the day) was planning on going to visit with Liz after finals, and had even arranged to get her passport expedited to do so, is now going to cancel her trip (because, she says, "they don't need one more useless person over there").| The radiation thing is troublesome, but your analysis is reassuring. |
I don't even trust the "23 times normal" figure, because I only found it through the Washington Times of all places. I'm guessing that the reality in Tokyo is less scary than that (simply due to the lack of reliability of the source), in which case my analysis could be very conservative. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2011 : 22:40:32 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
CNN just reported that there is a "core group of 50 workers" who are NOT leaving the plant, despite facing potentially lethal radiation levels on site.
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They have just evacuated the reactor again. |
Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2011 : 23:30:01 [Permalink]
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Could one of you who knows such things answer this question? (Dude?) What are some reasonable precautions to take in advance of (and during) possible fallout from, let's say, a Chernobyl-class meltdown event?
My girlfriend and I are trying to buy 130 mg potassium iodide (KI) tablets. This is a daily adult dose intended to prevent intake of radio-iodine. Wiki, however, says this should not be taken by those over 40.
I also have paper surgical masks, for whatever good they might do. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 01:51:27 [Permalink]
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As usual, more people are going to get sick worrying about the radiation, than who will really get sick directly from it.
Just like with the Chernobyl disaster.
When the radiation was at its worst in Sweden, someone calculated that a child playing in the sand box had to stuff itself with 80kg of sand to ingest an unhealthy dose of radioactive material. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 10:02:02 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by HalfMooner
Could one of you who knows such things answer this question? (Dude?) What are some reasonable precautions to take in advance of (and during) possible fallout from, let's say, a Chernobyl-class meltdown event?
My girlfriend and I are trying to buy 130 mg potassium iodide (KI) tablets. This is a daily adult dose intended to prevent intake of radio-iodine. Wiki, however, says this should not be taken by those over 40.
I also have paper surgical masks, for whatever good they might do.
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The first and best thing to do is get as far away from it as possible. I'm pretty sure you will be fine where you are Half.
Look for government, not news agency (fucking drama queens), reports on what is happening and where the radiation is heading.
Unless you are in very close proximity to a source of radiation, like within a few miles of a nuclear bomb detonation, then you have no concern with prompt radiation. That leaves only the secondary source, fallout. Mostly this is dust or vapor, and the only thing to do is avoid it if you can.
Remember the scare after 9/11 when people were buying up plastic sheeting and duct tape? If you expect to be in an area with harmful levels of radiation due to fallout then taping up your windows and other entryways might be useful. If you have a garage you could turn it into a mini decontamination center. For skin radiation decon all you need is warm (not hot or cold, just warm) water and some soap that pH 5-9 (so most women's skin care soap will fit the bill). There are commercially available products like Radiacwash but some plain old beauty soap will do in a pinch.
Strip out of clothing you think is contaminated, shower up, discard the clothes obviously, and keep your water source running for a while after your shower. Ideally you would have it set up for three stages, one to remove clothing and secure it (heavy plastic bags that can seal), first shower room, then a second shower room. this decreases the chance you will carry any particles into your living area.
Surgical masks- Useless for this purpose. Those are designed to prevent you from coughing or sneezing into a medical procedure site or similar. You need N95 HEPA masks and mold safety goggles.
About the iodine and age.... I have no idea. If you were definitely going to be exposed to a high amount of fallout radiation then it might not be a bad idea. I'd find a doctor and ask.
I am thinking that you are probably far enough away to not worry about the iodine, and if you prevent yourself from inhaling any radioactive dust then you can avoid the need to use KI tablets entirely.
I don't think you have much to worry about really. Just point and laugh at the people who have painted their necks with iodine! Maybe start up a small business selling KI tablets and soap, just repackage some beauty bars in a plain looking label with "DECON BAR" in block text... bet you could make a pretty penny. Add in plastic sheeting, duct tape, and some hastily drawn plans for a decon shower made from the plastic sheeting and a garden hose.... you could clean up! (bad pun...)
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 12:42:18 [Permalink]
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After a little more reading I have to go with the position of do not take the KI tabs in that dosage unless you know you have been exposed to a significant dose of radioactive dust via inhalation. Skin absorption is minimal if you get in that decon shower right away, eyes are more of a concern, but breathing in the dust is where the most harm comes. So if it really becomes a concern find a painter's shop or a home depot and get a package of those n95 hepa masks.
Avoiding exposure is the best option.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 13:33:06 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by HalfMooner
Could one of you who knows such things answer this question? (Dude?) What are some reasonable precautions to take in advance of (and during) possible fallout from, let's say, a Chernobyl-class meltdown event?
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The distance between Chernobyl and the Swedish border is ~1000km.
The distance between Fukushima and Baguio is three times that... ~3000km according to Google Earth.
When the Chernobyl reactor went boom, in Sweden we went about our daily lives as if nothing happened. We could measure elevated background radiation, but there wasn't much to it. A few people with heart conditions may have had heart attacks because of the stress induced by the press and media headlines, but that was about it.
The governmental agency for food safety gave some recommendations to limit the intake of reindeer and elk-meat and mushrooms from some forest areas because of accumulation of radioactive material. But we're talking about restricting levels at several kg of meat per year for specifically contaminated meats. And agency-regulated safety guidelines are many times lower than any level where there's actually possible to statistically determine an increase risk of cancer.
The wind is blowing east, if I'm not mistaken. Which in away from the Philippines. During the Chernobyl disaster, winds were blowing in our general direction...
Also, from a Swedish agency for radiation safety interviewed in a newspaper:
( http://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/ssm-an-sa-lange-ar-vi-langt-ifran-tjernobyl)
Translated to English with Google (edited by me)
Can a new Chernobyl happen?
- Well, in Japan they have a very different type of reactor. In Chernobyl, we had an energy pulse with tremendous heat, and radioactive materials spread high into the atmosphere. In Japan, it is not close to the same temperatures. Fallouts reach the immediate area, but not far beyond, "says Ann-Christin Hägg, at SSM.
<snip>
If the absolute worst thing occurred, how large an area will be affected?
- It will, in principle, strike Japan. Possibly, the closest countries, such as South Korea, could be exposed to fallout, but on the whole, it becomes a local phenomenon. Other countries in Asia are not affected.
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(the last emphasis mine)
So, according to Swedish experts (who does have experience from the aftermath of Chernobyl), you and your friends are safe in Philippines and have no reason to be alarmed.
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 19:30:45 [Permalink]
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Thanks much for the info and suggestions, Dude. I definitely would not take a KI tab unless a definite huge dose of radio-iodine was wafting this way. The rest of your suggestions pretty much refresh the nuclear warfare precautions that the Navy taught me almost fifty years ago. (Buttoning up the top buttons on our chambray shirts and tucking our dungaree pant legs into our socks to transform our work uniforms into anti-radiation suits comes back to mind now.  )
Mab, I'm aware of the extreme unlikelihood of large amounts of fallout hitting the Philippines, even with a Chernobyl-sized disaster in Japan. Chernobyl-style disasters are thus far a set of one. As far as we know, the Japanese disaster may even become a greater problem than even Chernobyl. (I think there's a small but serious chance that a large part of Japan may become uninhabitable.) I simply want to prepare for the very unlikely, without panic. Yes, panic is probably the biggest potential problem, but I think there's a potential danger to the lying reassurances and minimizations of danger that the Japanese government has been shoveling out, as well.
I want to also make two points: Nuclear power reactors need to be as inherently safe as possible. But the danger of well-designed nukes pales in comparison to that of global warming. We need nukes, but relatively safe ones like the pebble-bed plants mentioned by Dude. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 20:55:18 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by HalfMooner
We need nukes... |
I'd disagree with this. There are very serious plans afloat that all of the US's (at least) industrial and residential energy needs could be met with wind, water and solar power (WWS) by 2030 with a concerted social effort, and by 2050 we could have all the fossil-fuel-powered cars off the roads. These plans don't rely on not-yet-existent technologies, only on the will of We, the People to demand the government exert the necessary pressures. If such a will could be found, then dumping the nukes for a temporary increase in coal and natural-gas fired power plant emissions would be an easy trade-off, since we know there'd be an end to it and those 20 years would entail significantly dropping CO2 rates anyway.
Arguing that we will never find the political climate kind to WWS and so we need nuclear plants ignores the facts that nuclear power isn't free, and that like with oil, the US is a small player in the world market (the US would be dependent on foreign sources of Uranium, for example). And if the reason that we can't find the political will to fund WWS is that the majority's attitude is "screw the environment," then fossil fuels are going to win the argument simply because the power produced is cheaper than at nuclear plants. We'd have to wait until coal or natural gas were long past their peak production before the prices rose enough to match or exceed nuke-generated electricity, which could take decades or even centuries, depending on who you ask. And spent nuclear fuel retains the potential to be both an environmental and a security nightmare.
In other words, if the goal is to both green the country and to eliminate dependence on foreign sources of fuel, then we need to tell our Congresscritters to bite the fiscal bullet and get the massive WWS plans implemented, right now. If either goal isn't to your liking, then we may as well stick with fossil fuels, since the chance that an accident with them will render dozens of square miles of land uninhabitable is almost nil.
I, for one, would gladly pay more in taxes to ensure that by the time I enter my dotage, the risks from both fossil and nuclear fuels will be eliminated from this country. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2011 : 22:05:24 [Permalink]
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Dave_W said:
| And if the reason that we can't find the political will to fund WWS is that the majority's attitude is "screw the environment," |
I think a lot of people have fallen victim to the disinformation campaign. It is, obviously, one of those things that makes you sit back and say "WTF!?", but red state America is basically retarded, has bought into oil/coal company propaganda, and keeps electing douchebags to the federal legislature. Every one of them has forgotten that the EPA was put in place by... a republican.
Combine that with idiots like Bill Scott who troll forums looking for the opportunity to bash Al Gore and any form of responsible environmentalism, and with the disinformation emails (I have some conservatarded friends who fwd me emails all the time), FAUX news constantly hammering how global warming is false just because we had a lot of snow....
Several years ago there was a study of surface wind speeds done, and it showed that wind alone could provide all the energy needed by the US well into the next century (at predicted growth rates). I have never once heard this mentioned by any politician, ever. I'd expect the ones in favor of smart environmental policy to be all over that one.... ok, ok, it could kill some bats, but I'm pretty sure we can find a way to keep bats clear of wind turbines. If you add in the pace at which solar panel efficiency is increasing, I'm with you on the idea that we don't "need" any nuclear reactors.
But, because the political problem is apparently insurmountable, I am prepared to accept gen 4 nuclear power plants. All nuclear power has some drawbacks, but these are a lot better than coal in my opinion. Less immediately harmful, the fuel can be reprocessed and/or stored, and they don't churn out massive amounts of CO2.
If anyone has any ideas on how to change minds enough that they won't elect oil company politicians, lets hear them.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2011 : 13:10:26 [Permalink]
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Dude....
| If anyone has any ideas on how to change minds enough that they won't elect oil company politicians, let's hear them. |
How about a heavy enough tax on oil companies to compel them to raise gasoline prices enormously. This will screw up, to some extent, the market speculation that is the current villian driving up gas prices (I think). When Rodney Redneck sees gasoline prices so out of sight that he can't tool around much in his 50K pickup truck, he will get pissed at the oil companies and stop voting their paid representatives into Congress.
Granted this takes a real Democratic Congress, a second term for Obama (or a real liberal replacement; not likely!) It also probably requires some kind of political obfuscation of the nature of the tax on Big Oil so that it isn't clear to Retarded Ralph in Red Land that the tax is the Government messing with the oil companies; rather it is clear that Big Oil is just getting obscenely fatter, as usual!
And a hell of a lot of clever advertising on the part of the DNC to hit all the Neanderthal Neds and Nellies right in their fat guts!
I contribute heavily to many liberal causes, and I sure would go balls to the wall to help get a program like this going!
Don't misunderstand, I'm no Bill Gates. Dammit!
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sailingsoul
SFN Addict
2830 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2011 : 13:48:28 [Permalink]
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Energy solutions are another topic (thread) all together.
For Japan's immediate problem as long as the wind keeps coming from the west or with any component that is westerly, the radiation will keep heading out to sea, for the most part. It's only a matter of time until the wind comes from any good easterly direction. With any consistent wind out of the east, while the radioactive aerosol is coming from these uncontrolled fires, that will be when the "shit hits the fan".
I hope they get these fires put out, which are caused by not being able to keep the reactor and spent fuel rods UNDER water, and ALL radioactive releases are stopped, before the wind has a strong easterly component. Time maybe running out.
After some thought even if the worst ocurs I wouldn't expect that any reactors anywhere will be taken off line, because of this. The powers "that be" will insist that newer reactors are more safe and that this is all due to extra ordinary events and thus it's no reason to view other reactors unsafe. Then the carnival will continue. SS |
There are only two types of religious people, the deceivers and the deceived. SS |
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Japan
