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Ghost_Skeptic
SFN Regular
Canada
510 Posts |
 Posted - 02/06/2007 : 01:02:14 [Permalink]
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Here is a oomplete book of peer revieiwed papers on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change that you can download.
- Warning to dial up users - this is a 17 Mb PDF file. |
"You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. / You can send a kid to college but you can't make him think." - B.B. King
History is made by stupid people - The Arrogant Worms
"The greater the ignorance the greater the dogmatism." - William Osler
"Religion is the natural home of the psychopath" - Pat Condell
"The day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin, will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter" - Thomas Jefferson |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 03:09:33 [Permalink]
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I wonder how Valery Fabrikant documented the "works well with others" section of his resume.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 05:55:08 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Fripp
quote:
Instead of addressing the facts of THOUSANDS of scientists, you resort to an ad hominem attack. Typical
The facts are THOUSANDS of scientists think GW MIGHT be happening. BTW, what ever happened to all the GC (Global Cooling) hype of the 70's?
quote:
Of course, the mythical, hearsay, personal attacks. Oh you poor persecuted people...
Mythical nothing. Were talking about your posts, while yes they do seem a tad mythical.
quote:
Thanks for reinforcing my prediction.
Your prediction was that I would not answer your question or I would be a puss, which I did answer.
quote:
quote:
I don't debate GW. The debate is the cause of the GW.
Then why did you post the article?
As I have already said, because I am not convinced this cycle of GW is a man made phenomenon, like you are.
quote:
quote:
Then it's too late.
(whistles) Wow, Bill. Devastating logic.
Thousands of your scientists already say that it is too late, so let's eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow we die.
quote:
quote:
I don't have a problem with any of these.
Then, as usual, your position lacks any internal logic. Why post an article that posits the opposite of what you've answered here?
I never posted an artical that claimed waste was good. I posted on GW and again, I don't debate that GW occurs. I am just not convinced that it is caused by man, unlike you. What ever did happen to all that sheik global cooling buzz of the 70's? Did the trend wear off when it started getting warmer? Hmm, fair weather doomsday prophets...
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Fripp
SFN Regular
USA
727 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 06:31:38 [Permalink]
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OK Bill, why don't you drop the "global cooling scare in the 70's" angle. That was 30 years ago. Plus, from what i remember, there were no widespread consensus among the scientific community nor was climate modelling as sophisticated or detailed as they are now. Plus, saying that they were wrong back then (30 years ago) does not say that "they must be wrong now".
I notice that you have avoided answering the others here who have thoroughly destroyed your goofy little post.
It's very simple Bill. Global warming is happening. You admit as much yourself.
So, it is either
A) directly related to human activity (for which there is extensive supportive evidence)
or
B) it is completely unrelated to human activity
It's a simple matter of flipping a coin and making simple lifestyle choices for the betterment of our fellow man. Why are you so hateful? |
"What the hell is an Aluminum Falcon?"
"Oh, I'm sorry. I thought my Dark Lord of the Sith could protect a small thermal exhaust port that's only 2-meters wide! That thing wasn't even fully paid off yet! You have any idea what this is going to do to my credit?!?!"
"What? Oh, oh, 'just rebuild it'? Oh, real [bleep]ing original. And who's gonna give me a loan, jackhole? You? You got an ATM on that torso LiteBrite?" |
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tomk80
SFN Regular
Netherlands
1278 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 06:37:38 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
quote:
Originally posted by Fripp
quote:
Instead of addressing the facts of THOUSANDS of scientists, you resort to an ad hominem attack. Typical
The facts are THOUSANDS of scientists think GW MIGHT be happening. BTW, what ever happened to all the GC (Global Cooling) hype of the 70's?
The Global cooling was never a widely accepted theory amongst climatologists in the '70s. It was very speculative research overhyped by the media. This is not comparable to the current situation, where global warming is the scientific consensus at this point. Furthermore, as can be seen from AR4, the consensus is also that the last decades of warming cannot be fully explained unless anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are added into the models.
<snipped irrelevancies>
quote:
quote:
I don't debate GW. The debate is the cause of the GW.
quote:
Then why did you post the article?
As I have already said, because I am not convinced this cycle of GW is a man made phenomenon, like you are.
So just to clear up, you are convinced global warming is taking place. You are not convinced this global warming is the result of human activity.
quote:
Then it's too late.
quote:
quote:
(whistles) Wow, Bill. Devastating logic.
Thousands of your scientists already say that it is too late, so let's eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow we die.
Fatalism is not everybody's ballpark. It certainly is not mine.
quote:
quote:
I don't have a problem with any of these.
quote:
Then, as usual, your position lacks any internal logic. Why post an article that posits the opposite of what you've answered here?
I never posted an artical that claimed waste was good. I posted on GW and again, I don't debate that GW occurs. I am just not convinced that it is caused by man, unlike you. What ever did happen to all that sheik global cooling buzz of the 70's? Did the trend wear off when it started getting warmer? Hmm, fair weather doomsday prophets...
Again, the global cooling buzz was overreported in the media. If you look back in the scientific literature, you see that this was not a phenomenon that was widely accepted in the scientific community. The current situation with global warming caused by human activity is different, in that it is the consensus amongst climatologists. The models we have at this point give the most accurate predictions of global warming if anthropogenic emissions are taken into account. If not, the effect of global warming is underestimated in comparison to the real data. |
Tom
`Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, `if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.'
-Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Caroll- |
| Edited by - tomk80 on 02/06/2007 17:22:54 |
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Ghost_Skeptic
SFN Regular
Canada
510 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 08:04:25 [Permalink]
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I vaugely remember global cooling - about the only place I ever saw anything on it was the Rocky View Weekly, a free paper distrubuted in Municpal District of Rochky View and edited by right wing kook at the time.
There is huge difference between an odball notion that got some attention for exactly that reason (oddball) and the overwhelming consensus in favour of human caused Global Warning.
As Tomk has pointed out modelling has become much more significant and as Filthy sowed with his ice core graph the evidence is mounting. That is the difference between science and religion - science is always improving its accuracy and refining its predictions.
Global cooling is a straw man - typical of the intellectually dishonest arguments used by the Global Warming deniers.
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"You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. / You can send a kid to college but you can't make him think." - B.B. King
History is made by stupid people - The Arrogant Worms
"The greater the ignorance the greater the dogmatism." - William Osler
"Religion is the natural home of the psychopath" - Pat Condell
"The day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin, will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter" - Thomas Jefferson |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 12:03:17 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Fripp
quote:
OK Bill, why don't you drop the "global cooling scare in the 70's" angle. That was 30 years ago.
So what?
quote:
Plus, from what i remember, there were no widespread consensus among the scientific community
I believe it was Newsweek who ran a big cover piece on the predictions of a coming Ice Age. Food growth patterns would be altered, weather would change drastically, doomsday, maybe only 10 years away?
quote:
nor was climate modelling as sophisticated or detailed as they are now.
Nor as sophisticated as it will be in 30 more years.
quote:
Plus, saying that they were wrong back then (30 years ago) does not say that "they must be wrong now".
But it does show that they can be wrong, even when insisting that they were right.
quote:
I notice that you have avoided answering the others here who have thoroughly destroyed your goofy little post.
I don't have a lot of time to play today so why waste time with the same ol regurgitation.
quote:
It's very simple Bill. Global warming is happening. You admit as much yourself.
So, it is either
A) directly related to human activity (for which there is extensive supportive evidence)
or
B) it is completely unrelated to human activity
It's a simple matter of flipping a coin and making simple lifestyle choices for the betterment of our fellow man.
I am all for conservation. I cringe when I think of the endless tonnage of trash that we just bury in land fills. I am down with the notion that we are a wasteful society. I can dig it. What I reject is the attempt by some fringe groups to use debatable eco issues to drive a political agenda.
quote:
Why are you so hateful?
I am not hateful, just cautious. Cautious of knee-jerk reactions to what we don't even know to be true. Billions are spent every year to propagandize this issue with the steaks going higher every year. What a scam and squanderance of money if they are as wrong as they were in the 70's.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 02/06/2007 12:43:41 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 12:16:51 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by tomk80
quote:
Furthermore, as can be seen from AR4, the consensus is also that the last decades of warming cannot be fully explained unless anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are added into the models.
You have never even entertained the remote possibility that the models, and all the thousands of calculations and assumptions that would go into them, could ever be wrong have you? It is not even thinkable that our sophisticated models of today could error. Yet 30 years from now, when they are in the midst of a global cooling cycle, they could look at our models of today as elementary, just as we viewed the 70's and their model.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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perrodetokio
Skeptic Friend
275 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 12:44:08 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
You have never even entertained the remote possibility that the models, and all the thousands of calculations and assumptions that would go into them, could ever be wrong have you? It is not even thinkable that our sophisticated models of today could error. Yet 30 years from now, when they are in the midst of a global cooling cycle, they could look at our models of today as elementary, just as we viewed the 70's and their model.
Then let's not believe in anything any scientists assert because in 30 or 50 years time it might be incorrect! LOL!
In science, you have to go with the available data and current results until some new discoveries are made and then you can correct the previous results. That's, I think, basic in science.
That is also why science can NEVER be a religion.
Cheers! |
"Yes I have a belief in a creator/God but do not know that he exists." Bill Scott
"They are still mosquitoes! They did not turn into whales or lizards or anything else. They are still mosquitoes!..." Bill Scott
"We should have millions of missing links or transition fossils showing a fish turning into a philosopher..." Bill Scott |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 13:05:24 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by perrodetokio
quote:
Then let's not believe in anything any scientists assert because in 30 or 50 years time it might be incorrect! LOL!
How about view all things with some skepticism?
quote:
In science, you have to go with the available data and current results until some new discoveries are made and then you can correct the previous results. That's, I think, basic in science.
So then we must conclude that in science you can go with the available data and current results and still be wrong. Confident, but yet still wrong.
quote:
That is also why science can NEVER be a religion.
Anything can be a religon, Jack.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 13:58:20 [Permalink]
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quote:
Bill Scott:
But it does show that they can be wrong, even when insisting that they were right.
Scientists insisted that global cooling was a certainty? Source please. Some scientists may have thrown it out there, and the media loves that kind of story, but I doubt you can produce anything close to the amount research, or any history of a scientific consensus from back then that comes anywhere near paralleling how scientists regard global warming now. You do love your stramen though…
quote:
Bill Scott:
I am all for conservation. I cringe when I think of the endless tonnage of trash that we just bury in land fills. I am down with the notion that we are a wasteful society. I can dig it. What I reject is the attempt by some fringe groups to use debatable eco issues to drive a political agenda.
So, a scientific consensus is a “fringe group” when you don't agree.
As for political agendas, take a look at your favorite scientists site:
quote:
From the Natural Resources Stewardship Project
What defines Responsible Environmental Stewardship?
The wise care of our natural environment for all creatures, including, first & foremost, our fellow human beings.
1 The prudent use of all resources seeking to:
minimize unnecessary pollution;
transform waste into resources; and
improve the material conditions for all people.
2 The formulation of practical environmental policies based on:
logic; scientific objectivity; and understanding of risk.
3 Individual, not government, action as the preferred means to achieve common goals.
4 An understanding that private property encourages private responsibility.
5 A recognition that regulatory control of resources is best at the most local level possible.
6 An understanding that more economic freedom permits more
responsible individual action.
Bolding mine.
If the above isn't a political agenda, I don't know what is. And since this group holds a minuscule minority view on global warming, that would make the NRSP the “fringe group”.
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Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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leoofno
Skeptic Friend
USA
346 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 14:02:41 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
quote:
Originally posted by Fripp
Plus, from what i remember, there were no widespread consensus among the scientific community
I believe it was Newsweek who ran a big cover piece on the predictions of a coming Ice Age. Food growth patterns would be altered, weather would change drastically, doomsday, maybe only 10 years away?
Newsweek is not a scientific journal. As Fripp said, there was no consensus amoung the scientific community. To show otherwise you must point out articles from actual scientific journals, not the likes of Newsweek or Fate.
(I used to get Fate back in the 70s. Even built a cardboard pyramid to check out pyramid power because of it. I ate two apples and put one core in the pyramid, and one out. Sure enough, the pyramid core browned less than the other.  ) |
"If you're not terrified, you're not paying attention." Eric Alterman
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 14:04:13 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
I believe it was Newsweek who ran a big cover piece on the predictions of a coming Ice Age. Food growth patterns would be altered, weather would change drastically, doomsday, maybe only 10 years away?
The implication is clear: for Bill, the popular digest Newsweek is the arbiter of scientific consensus.quote:
But it does show that they can be wrong, even when insisting that they were right.
That's why the consensus is that we're only 90% sure that global warming is being caused by human activity.quote:
What I reject is the attempt by some fringe groups to use debatable eco issues to drive a political agenda.
Then why did you post a editorial from a fringe climatologist who is trying to drive a political agenda?quote:
Cautious of knee-jerk reactions to what we don't even know to be true.
Except this research has been 20 years in the making, the consensus of the scientists is hardly a knee-jerk reaction to anything. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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perrodetokio
Skeptic Friend
275 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 14:17:00 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
quote:
Originally posted by perrodetokio
quote:
Then let's not believe in anything any scientists assert because in 30 or 50 years time it might be incorrect! LOL!
How about view all things with some skepticism?
If YOU really think like that, how about applying some of that skepticism that overflows your being to your religion?
Or is it: How about view all things with some skepticism EXCEPT my religion? |
"Yes I have a belief in a creator/God but do not know that he exists." Bill Scott
"They are still mosquitoes! They did not turn into whales or lizards or anything else. They are still mosquitoes!..." Bill Scott
"We should have millions of missing links or transition fossils showing a fish turning into a philosopher..." Bill Scott |
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perrodetokio
Skeptic Friend
275 Posts |
Posted - 02/06/2007 : 14:24:35 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
quote:
Originally posted by perrodetokio
quote:
In science, you have to go with the available data and current results until some new discoveries are made and then you can correct the previous results. That's, I think, basic in science.
So then we must conclude that in science you can go with the available data and current results and still be wrong. Confident, but yet still wrong.
If you go with the available data and current results it's less likely you'll be wrong.
In religion you go with no data, zero results and you're still confident, so why should you not be confident in science if you have data and results even if in 50 years time some of it will be proven wrong? |
"Yes I have a belief in a creator/God but do not know that he exists." Bill Scott
"They are still mosquitoes! They did not turn into whales or lizards or anything else. They are still mosquitoes!..." Bill Scott
"We should have millions of missing links or transition fossils showing a fish turning into a philosopher..." Bill Scott |
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Global Warming: The Cold, Hard Facts?
