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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
 Posted - 03/04/2008 : 02:43:17 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Pelayo
Accommodation of Islam is not slow jihad; slow jihad is a tactic.
I didn't mean to imply that I tolerate extremism in other religions. I just believe that Islam is the greater problem. |
I'm not sure that you realise this but the most immediate threat to a secular America is Christian theocracy.
By expelling the Christian religious practicies out of the government, you'll fint it will get easier to resist making unfair accomodations for other religions. Including Islam.
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 03/04/2008 : 02:45:42 [Permalink]
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Dude.....
| The threat of a nuclear attack on US soil is very remote though. They are difficult to make, and the people with the infrastructure and means to produce them tend to guard them closely. I'm much more likely to be killed by a drunk driver. |
The fact that "suitcase bombs" are difficult to make does not address the possibility that they have been made and may already exist in some quantities in various nations' arsenals.
I am sure that they are well guarded here and in the several other countries that are known to possess them. That may decrease the likelihood of a nuclear device being stolen, but does not affect the possibility that one could be sold or traded to a terrorist group!
| I'm much more likely to be killed by a drunk driver |
Of course! But that fact does not in any way lessen the possibility of an attack, even if you live in Washington D.C. I don't understand your vulnerability's relevance to the probability of an attack?
Dude, I am not attempting to promote a Rovian fear propaganda campaign concerning terrorist smuggled-in nuclear devices. I know that such an event is a possibility. I am looking for evidence of it's probability or non-probability!
You say it is very unlikely I very much would like to be logically and factually persuaded that what you posit is true - very unlikely! I have looked for studies or analyses that demonstrate that your point is valid -- without success! Nor have I found anything to support a view that such an attack is likely, probable or anything other than a possibility.
Do you, or any other reader here, have references pertaining either to the likelihood of or to the lack of probability of this form of attack? Or, lacking that, a logically cohesive argument that such an attack is unlikely?
What is the probability of each of these statements being true?
What is the support for that answer? Why, in other words?
1. Do small easily portable nuclear devices exist?
2. Can they be purchased for enough (billions) money?
3. Could they could be traded for services, support, favors, anything?
4. Could they be smuggled into the US by one of many different ways?
5. Could they be brought to the geographical power nexus of D.C.?
6. Could they be detonated by a timer, remote, or suicides?
Depending on the combined probabilities of these six factors, there may or may not be a reasonable probability of such a terrorist attack.
Has anyone or any credible analysis or investigation group made public any information on these matters?
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| Edited by - bngbuck on 03/04/2008 02:51:00 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 01:08:58 [Permalink]
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bng asked:
1. Do small easily portable nuclear devices exist?
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Depends on what you consider easily portable. Small enough for one person to carry without visible effort? Well, hypothetically, yes. U-233 can be supercritical at 15kg. With a beryllium neutron reflector, properly timed shaped charges, you could probably get a baby gun-type nuke into a hiker's backpack. Wouldn't have much in the way of shielding though, might be rough to carry.
If you have the raw materials, making a basic nuke is literally childsplay. Smash two subcritical chunks of enriched uranium together with sufficient force and ka-boom. Hope you weren't standing to close.
Has anyone ever made one? Only in spy novels, as far as I know.
Most of our modern nuclear warheads, the 100megaton fission/fusion city killers, would fit comfortably in a shipping container though. So who needs a backpack nuke? Do you have any idea how many shipping containers enter US ports every day? Lots.
The Bush admin, a few years back, wanted to fund (in violation of some treaties) a "small" nuke for busting bunkers. So I think we have had the capability of making 1-kiloton-ish baby nukes for some time. No idea if anyone else in the nuke world has tried.
Can they be purchased for enough (billions) money?
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The question you need to ask here is "how could one be purchased?" Every one of these devices ever made is counted many times a day. Have any nuclear weapon owning nations fallen apart so badly that it is plausible to suggest they no longer control their nuclear weapons? Only in spy/suspense movies and republican political fear-rhetoric.
Could they could be traded for services, support, favors, anything?
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See above answer.
Could they be smuggled into the US by one of many different ways?
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If you had one, you could probably get it into the US. We inspect only a small fraction of incomming freight, and we do those inspections.... in our ports!
Could they be brought to the geographical power nexus of D.C.?
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Not relavent. It could go to NY, Boston, Tampa, Miami, LA, etc.. anywhere with a port that recieves freight.
Could they be detonated by a timer, remote, or suicides?
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Any of the above.
Depending on the combined probabilities of these six factors, there may or may not be a reasonable probability of such a terrorist attack.
Has anyone or any credible analysis or investigation group made public any information on these matters?
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Grasping at straws is what you are doing here.
There is no credible evidence to suggest that any of the very small number of places in the world capable of creating fissionable materials is outside the control of responsible parties. Same for stockpiles of existing weapons.
So yes, you can say there is a posibility of a terrorist getting a nuke and blowing your old ass up with it, but there is also the possibility that a meteor will land on your house and kill you. If I had to place a bet on which one will happen first, I'd go with the meteor.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 07:03:22 [Permalink]
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Quote-Dude
"The question you need to ask here is "how could one be purchased?" Every one of these devices ever made is counted many times a day. Have any nuclear weapon owning nations fallen apart so badly that it is plausible to suggest they no longer control their nuclear weapons? Only in spy/suspense movies and republican political fear-rhetoric."
Actually from what Ive heard there are many weapons unaccounted for in Moldova's breakaway province Transdnestria, which took to selling their no-longer-monitered Soviet stockpiles (which were the largest in the USSR) after the fall in 1989. There were more than a few rumors, which remain uncomfirmed that there were 16 suitcase nukes in Transdnestria at the time of the fall, which may or may not be accounted for.
Anyway Im saying its not as unlikely as you state Dude, though it probably hasnt happened yet.
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1. Do small easily portable nuclear devices exist?
Yes
2. Can they be purchased for enough (billions) money?
Everybody has a price, AKA it's plausable
3. Could they could be traded for services, support, favors, anything?
See #2
4. Could they be smuggled into the US by one of many different ways?
Anything can be smuggled
5. Could they be brought to the geographical power nexus of D.C.?
See #4
6. Could they be detonated by a timer, remote, or suicides?
Yes
Edit: Wing attack Plan R is also possible, though exceedingly unlikely |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 03/06/2008 07:09:14 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 07:31:44 [Permalink]
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BPS said:
| Actually from what Ive heard there are many weapons unaccounted for in Moldova's breakaway province Transdnestria, which took to selling their no-longer-monitered Soviet stockpiles (which were the largest in the USSR) after the fall in 1989. |
Where did you hear this?
Because I have never heard any credible report that suggests the core russian military units in charge of the nuke arsenal failed to maintain control of their weapons.
Really, its just a bunch of fearmongering and spy-fantasy to think there are loose nukes running around the world.
But here is a better reason to predict that no one will ever nuke the US (or any other western nation who owns nukes). The response would be the genocide of whomever was merely suspected when we returned the nuke with interest.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 07:59:04 [Permalink]
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Many of the Soviet nukes, remain in their countries of origin as far as I know, they were not secured by Russia.
The fall of the Soviet Union created three new nuclear
states (Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) which recognize that they
do not have the right to keep these weapons. Nevertheless these
three states still have nuclear warheads for the time being. |
http://www.american.edu/ted/nukesmug.htm
Here's some good info on the topic.
Also to assume that there was anything but chaos in the Soveit bloc would be a mistake, its not like it was a well planned event, where Russia says Ok lets get these xthousand nukes back to Russia before the whole coup thing. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 08:01:26 [Permalink]
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| More than a handful of people have been caught trying to smuggle weapons grade material out of the ol' USSR, how many have not been captured? |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 08:40:01 [Permalink]
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Surely you recognize the fallacy in your question?
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 08:46:05 [Permalink]
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Also, if the US gov fell apart today... do you think our arsenal of nukes would just suddenly become available at walmart?
The military units that maintain the nukes would keep control of them. Same as happened when the USSR broke up. The military units in charge of the weapons maintained control of the weapons.
At this point I'm beginning to think you are just yanking my chain. If you really believe there are nukes and weapons grade uranium for sale out there, then I can only suggest that you stop reading those Tom Clancy novels.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 08:54:31 [Permalink]
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Dude, you have deluded yourself, Im only trying to releive you of your ignorance. I did not imply that it was a free for all, only that they are out there and they are unaccounted for. "The military units that maintain the nukes would keep control of them." these same guys who tried to sell a nuclear sub to an Isreali drug smuggler? Money talks in Russia, and the military doesnt pay jack.
The cses of materials smuggling are well documented and public, do you deny that these events happened? |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 10:29:25 [Permalink]
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| Oops wrong thread... |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 03/06/2008 10:30:30 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 12:11:24 [Permalink]
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BPS said:
| The cses of materials smuggling are well documented and public, do you deny that these events happened? |
Now you are lowering the bar.
These fallacious arguments are unbecomming of you BPS. Show me evidence that a nuclear weapon has ever been unaccounted for. Show me evidence where weapons grade fissionables, in sufficient quantity to make a weapon, have even been caught while being smuggled. Show me evidence of the military units responsible for guarding nuclear weapons in the USSR losing cohesion and failing to provide proper security for a nuke.
Until you have that, you have nothing here but spy-novel delusion.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 12:41:37 [Permalink]
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Whatever, try holding yourself to the same standard. In 1993 alone there were more than 100 smuggling incidents (known incidents). No reason to get it all at once, though someone was stopped with 9 pounds of material. Do you think the Russians would ever admit to losing a nuke? Of course not. Many reports have come out from a variety of sources about unaccounted for nukes and missles, natually the FSB denies each instance as without merit, however the fact remains that unpaid guards dont guard very well and they dont guard themselves.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/03/25/ukrainian_nukes_go_awol/
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/1997_09/lebedsept.asp
I am in no way aying that they have been stolen or constructed, however dismissing the issue as fantasy/impossible is an outrage.
Edit: The incident with the nuclear sub was real, not a novel, and thats just one incident. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 03/06/2008 12:43:59 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 13:42:30 [Permalink]
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The articles you link, and you, are making the same error of reason. The register article insists that the "missiles" that are missing are "obviously" ICBMs, while it notes that the BBC report intentionally makes no mention of the phrase "nuclear missile". That is a logical fallacy.
It further goes on talking about this "400g" of uranium, but fails to properly characterize the material. Is it enriched? Reactor fuel? Weapons grade? You are left to SPECULATE. Oh noes! Uranium BAD! BE AFRAID!
As for the Ledbed "theory" of suitcase nukes, there is nothing but his claim and wild conspiracy talk. There isn't even any evidence that such devices were ever constructed.
Say nothing of the obviously false claim that Al-Qaeda BOUGHT some of them! If they had, they don't need a terrorist cell, all they need is UPS and a bribe at a UAE airport. They certainly would have used them instead of the crashing planes into buildings thing. Since that hasn't happened I am going with the "bullshit" call here as well.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2008 : 20:47:02 [Permalink]
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Now, if we look at the "missing" US uranium and plutonium that some articles wring hands about, we actually find that there are various logging errors where plutonium comes back into the stores and are logged in but someone screwed up and forgot to log them out.
DOE goes through this every so often. And the Uranium itself really isn't that bad unless we're talking about fissile material. |
Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
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"Muslim jihadists"
