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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 06:48:28 [Permalink]
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Billy's little slice of BS pie doesn't show anything about the total number, or rate, of permanent injuries either. But his whole reason for life is to bash an ex-president/ex-vp. Almost every thread he starts ends up there. Predictable and pathetic.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
 Posted - 02/29/2008 : 08:19:54 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by marfknox
Bill Scott wrote: | I agree, Marf. With hindsight being 20/20 I don't think the rewards have been worth the price in Iraq. We needed to finish the fight with Al Queada and the Taliban in Afghanistan before we ever considered opening up another front somewhere else. And now it looks as if Iran should have been that next front, but not an occupation to install a new government, instead an attack to take out any nuclear ambitions, and then vacate the premises. |
Amazing how quickly you go from the death of one million innocent civilians caused by US military intervention to planning our next violent attack.
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Huh? Stability in the ME is a pipe dream. I am talking about finishing off Al Queda and Bin Laden for attacking us on 9/11 and then pounding the Taliban with some more daisy cutters for harboring them.
And for direct threats to terminate Israel with their future nuclear program, when capable, I would attack Iran for the sole purpose of taking out those developing capabilities, then I would leave. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 08:22:02 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
We're not talking about huge numbers, Bill. W only needed to have 35 more suicides each year to exceed Clinton's suicide rate. That's only one out of every 47,390 people serving.
Don't forget that in the general population, there were about 32,700 suicides in 2005. One for every 9,174 people.
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Fine. I still remain surprised by the death totals of all 5 presidents when compared. Again, it was my perception, that because of the two wars, that the military was taking a pounding in service causalities during Bush, but while yes he currently leads Clinton by 1800, my perception was that it would be much much higher then this. I mean we conquered and have been occupying two hostile countries for the the last 5 -6 years. Look how many casualties the Soviet Union took when they tried to occupy Afghanistan alone. And again, I am surprised by the suicide numbers, no matter how you want to look at them, considering a very tiny amount of Clinton personal ever saw live combat, while many service personal have been on 3 and 4 tours while seeing heavy combat during Bush. It was my perception that suicide would be much more prevalent during multiple tours under heavy combat then in peace times. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 09:36:22 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Fine. I still remain surprised by the death totals of all 5 presidents when compared. |
For the 15-24 year age group, the total death rate in 2005 was 81.4, surpassed by W. In 1999, the total death rate was 79.3, and Clinton's military managed 57.5, well below average. Of course, nearly half of the deaths in Iraq have been of people 25 years old and older, for whom the averages will be even higher.| Again, it was my perception, that because of the two wars, that the military was taking a pounding in service causalities during Bush, but while yes he currently leads Clinton by 1800, my perception was that it would be much much higher then this. |
And my perception was that it would be much, much lower, because Iraq was supposed to have been done with in just a few months, with our troops being greeted as liberators.| I mean we conquered and have been occupying two hostile countries for the the last 5 -6 years. |
And we're missing last year's and this year's data, and from other sources, it looks like 2007 has a bumper crop of deaths in Iraq. This site suggests that the data we've been using are missing more than 1,000 hostile-action deaths in Iraq alone already, and that's with 10 months to go.| Look how many casualties the Soviet Union took when they tried to occupy Afghanistan alone. |
Look at how many casualties we had in Vietnam. There are smart ways to prosecute a war, and stupid ways. W's methods haven't been super-intelligent, but they haven't been butt-stupid, either. Plus, neither the Russians nor LBJ had remote-piloted vehicles, stealth technology or cruise missiles.| And again, I am surprised by the suicide numbers, no matter how you want to look at them, considering a very tiny amount of Clinton personal ever saw live combat, while many service personal have been on 3 and 4 tours while seeing heavy combat during Bush. It was my perception that suicide would be much more prevalent during multiple tours under heavy combat then in peace times. |
Well, I don't know where you got that impression. Reagan had an 11.0 rate, and Bush the Elder's was 10.9, so it's not that Clinton's is super-dooper high, it's that W's rate is exceptionally low. If we take the 457 unknown W. deaths and give them the same distribution as the other causes, W's suicide rate jumps to 10.2, and there's no telling how many of his 2596 hostile kills would have lived to have been suicides.
More importantly, I've just learned, suicide rates have a double-peaked distribution, but generally trend upwards with age. W's rate is consistent with a young military (the 15-24 age group), while Clinton's is consistent with an older military (the 25-34 age group) - just what one should expect with a contrast between war and peacetime. Turnover is high during wartime, with people opting to split from the military when their first contract is up. During peacetime, the military is a long-term career choice. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 09:59:06 [Permalink]
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Bill Scott wrote: | Huh? Stability in the ME is a pipe dream. I am talking about finishing off Al Queda and Bin Laden for attacking us on 9/11 and then pounding the Taliban with some more daisy cutters for harboring them. |
Oh is that all? Heck, we can get that done before breakfast! /sarcasm off. Actually you were talking about bombing a whole new country - Iran. But back to what you say here, Bush has spent enough money on military efforts during his presidency to provide health care for every American several times over, and yet Al Queda, Bin Laden, and the Taliban all survive, and at least one million innocent men, women, and children are dead as a result of USA actions. You want to explain what Bush's administration is doing wrong or admit that taking out the enemy forces entirely is an extremely difficult if not impossible task which will certainly result in the deaths of many more civilians.
| And for direct threats to terminate Israel with their future nuclear program, when capable, I would attack Iran for the sole purpose of taking out those developing capabilities, then I would leave. |
You say this as if it is a fairly harmless, neat thing that could be done without pretty serious bad consequences for the United States.
Do you want to make sure that the USA is viciously hated and thereby fuel new recruits for terrorist organizations?
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"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 10:13:44 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Fine. I still remain surprised by the death totals of all 5 presidents when compared. Again, it was my perception, that because of the two wars, that the military was taking a pounding in service causalities during Bush, but while yes he currently leads Clinton by 1800, my perception was that it would be much much higher then this. I mean we conquered and have been occupying two hostile countries for the the last 5 -6 years. Look how many casualties the Soviet Union took when they tried to occupy Afghanistan alone. And again, I am surprised by the suicide numbers, no matter how you want to look at them, considering a very tiny amount of Clinton personal ever saw live combat, while many service personal have been on 3 and 4 tours while seeing heavy combat during Bush. It was my perception that suicide would be much more prevalent during multiple tours under heavy combat then in peace times. |
I can't imagine how you're surprised. It's been a talking point for some time that US military deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan pale in comparison to earlier wars such as Vietnam. Indeed, you'd have to have your head in the sand to not know that the current number dead in Iraq is somewhere just under 4000. And as I noted above, once we total Bush's final two years, he'll probably have a number that is ca. 4000 higher than Clinton. Which, again, is what any normal person would expect.
Re Soviet casualties in Afghanistan, have you looked? They not all that high.
As for the suicide thing, I have no idea what those trends mean. |
| Edited by - Cuneiformist on 02/29/2008 10:14:24 |
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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 10:17:27 [Permalink]
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This article says the Army's suicide rate in 2006 was the highest in a quarter century, with 99 soldiers killing themselves.
This article reports that the suicide rate climbed by 20% in 2007, with 121 Army suicides.
And that was just among active-duty soldiers. I couldn't find any good numbers for the rate of suicide among soldiers who've returned home, but there is evidence that many are returning with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder--a conditioned strongly linked to suicides. As many as 1 in 8 (12%) suffer from PTSD, but less than half of those soldiers will seek help. And soldiers asked to serve repeat tours, as many now are being required in Iraq and Afghanistan, are twice as likely to develop PTSD.
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
| Edited by - H. Humbert on 02/29/2008 10:18:54 |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/29/2008 : 13:15:05 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by H. Humbert
This article says the Army's suicide rate in 2006 was the highest in a quarter century, with 99 soldiers killing themselves.
This article reports that the suicide rate climbed by 20% in 2007, with 121 Army suicides.
And that was just among active-duty soldiers. |
And only Army soldiers. The numbers we've been batting around so far have been all branches, including reservists and Guard. Of course for Iraq in particular, the bulk of the numbers come from the Army (with 71% of all deaths), followed by the Marines (26%), Navy (2% including Coast Guard) and Air Force (1%).
In particular, there were a total of 155 military suicides in 2006, or 9.3 per 100,000. Compare with the 17.3 per 100K for just the Army cited in that first article. If the Army's rate had held across all branches, the total would have been about 288 suicides.
Oh, and the other thing Bill was wondering about, the low number of deaths. Put it in historical perspective:Deaths per 100,000
per Year of War
War | Rate
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War of 1812 | 197
Mexican War | 5625
Civil War | 2745
Spanish-American War | 1595
World War I | 1230
World War II | 359
Korean War | 160
Vietnam Conflict | 67
Persian Gulf War | 9
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So in general, it seems that over time we've done a better job of not letting soldiers die during war. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2008 : 07:00:52 [Permalink]
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Dont know if this was posted, I missed two weeks and theres too much crap to catch up on.
Deaths as % of active duty personnel...
1980-2932deaths-.143%
1985-2252deaths-.10%
1991-1787deaths-.09%
1992-1293deaths-.071%
1993-1213deaths-.071%
1994-1075deaths-.067%
1995-1040deaths-.068%
1996-974deaths-.066%
1997-817deaths-.056%
1998-827deaths-.058%
1999-796deaths-.057%
2000-758deaths-.055%
2001-891deaths-.064%
2002-999deaths-.071%
2003-1228deaths-.086%
2004-1874deaths-.132%
2005-1942deaths-.141%
2006-1858deaths-.134%
Also as has been noted, the number of people who die from their wounds has fallen dramaticly, in Vietnam it was between 10-15% and by gulf 1 it was down to 2-4%, its even lower now.
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"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2008 : 13:02:08 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
A death is a death, no? Is a non-hostile death any less of an honor or sacrifice? Again, my perception, based on what I saw from the media, was that military deaths were highly disproportioned in the GWB reign then in the previous 4 administrations. I was surprised to see the real numbers were as close as they were between Clinton and Bush, considering we are occupying two hostile countries, while Clinton's perception was that of a peace time prez.
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Not sure if anyone's suggested this or not but a more meaningful number might be military personnel deaths / total personnel serving. Bigger army means more deaths by accident and suicide, smaller army means fewer - you can't know if your number is really bigger or not without knowing the size of the entire population.
Also note that the Bush military outsources much of it's noncombat work, like material logistics. I'm sure deaths by truck accident in the Clinton years were "military" deaths according to these numbers, whereas the civilian contractor doing the exact same job for GW's military that dies in an accident is not a military death. That might bring down GW's number quite a bit.
EDIT - Alright, I see someone's hit on this one.... Oh well. |
-Chaloobi
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| Edited by - chaloobi on 03/03/2008 13:03:09 |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2008 : 13:32:52 [Permalink]
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| There have been around 13000+ contractor casualties, with around 10% of those killed. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2008 : 05:43:29 [Permalink]
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| Just to update this topic-- according to the AP, "army soldiers committed suicide in 2007 at the highest rate on record, and the toll is climbing ever higher this year as long war deployments stretch on." |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2008 : 08:03:04 [Permalink]
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When quoting such numbers, one needs to keep in mind the drastic downsizing of the military that started during Clinton's year.
The number of soldiers is much lower nowadays than it was then, so you can only meaningfully compare death rates, not raw numbers.
Applying epidemiological techniques, Dave has the right approach to calculate the fact of being in the military as a risk factor. LEt me remind you his figures: 1.1626 for Bill; 1.7866 (a 54% increase) for Dubya.
And that is even without mentioning the improvement in medicine and technologies that we went through, including the body armours which are much more efficient nowadays. Many wounds that soldiers now survive would have been lethal during Clinton's years.
As for Iran occupation. Please keep in mind that Iran is several time bigger, richer and more populated then Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Not to mention that Iraq was politically isolated while Iran has allies. And the Iraq's population did not hate the US nearly as much as Iran's does...
If the US can only difficultly handle Iraq now, it seems pretty certain that an invasion of Iran would be catastrophic. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2008 : 08:28:42 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Simon
If the US can only difficultly handle Iraq now, it seems pretty certain that an invasion of Iran would be catastrophic.
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Well, the invasion probably wouldn't be catastrophic at all. But the subsequent occupation would be truely horrible. |
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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 05/30/2008 : 10:54:17 [Permalink]
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| "If the US can only difficultly handle Iraq now, it seems pretty certain that an invasion of Iran would be catastrophic".....and....."Well, the invasion probably wouldn't be catastrophic at all. But the subsequent occupation would be truely horrible." |
The very idea of an occupation of Iran is the most preposterous concept that has appeared here this year. To successfully occupy and control Iran would take vastly more troops than the United States could muster with a full scale draft of all males and females 16 to 60. Fucking North Korea doesn't have enough boots on the ground to occupy Iran!
The craziest cadre of neocons that McCain could possibly assemble would not try to occupy Iran. I think the McCain attempt would be to carpet-bomb the entire country into rubble, preferably radioactive, reduce the Iranian civilization to early Cro-Magnon status, install a government subsidized Blackwater force of about half a million to appropriate all the country's oil for US companies; and then let the poor bastards climb back up the recovery ladder the best they could! This would satisfactorily fulfill McCain's mission to complete the Middle East portion of the Bush/Cheney Master Plan for World Domination and Delivering Oil to American Oil Barons! |
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Subject: MILITARY DEATHS FOR TWENTY SIX YEARS
