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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
 Posted - 05/21/2008 : 20:32:24
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I receive (among other political miscellany) Dick Morris Reports daily.
His most recent report is indicative of morale in the Republican ranks!
GOP SENATE MASSACRE OF '08
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on May 20, 2008.
While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that's possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.
Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com , follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.
Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce's 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson's 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.
And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska's Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens's legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.
Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.
So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.
Overall, that's a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.
Mon dieu!
In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.
Driving the GOP's imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.
So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurm
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 05/22/2008 : 03:53:47 [Permalink]
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The times they are a'changin'....
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 05/22/2008 : 08:02:52 [Permalink]
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But these things change so fast. A good campaign by McCain or, God forbid, another 9/11 might be enough to bring the GOP back to the top...
The only lasting damage I could see to the party is it getting split between moderate and right-wings.
I suspect that McCain's flip-flop to the right on so many issues in recent months helped avoiding that.
A good strategy for the Dem could be to try and widen that divide... forcing McCain to take positions that will alienate part of his electorate: Abortion -stem-cell research; gay rights (should they be allowed in the military; as teachers...) |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 05/22/2008 : 08:40:18 [Permalink]
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McCain's flip-flops will certainly be a campaign issue. "Who is the real John McCain?" I can see the TV adds now.
There is a limit to how many things you can change your mind about in such a short time... |
Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 05/22/2008 : 08:40:47 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Simon
But these things change so fast. A good campaign by McCain or, God forbid, another 9/11 might be enough to bring the GOP back to the top...
The only lasting damage I could see to the party is it getting split between moderate and right-wings.
I suspect that McCain's flip-flop to the right on so many issues in recent months helped avoiding that.
A good strategy for the Dem could be to try and widen that divide... forcing McCain to take positions that will alienate part of his electorate: Abortion -stem-cell research; gay rights (should they be allowed in the military; as teachers...)
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I don't think another attack would help the Republicans all that much, as a very good case can be made to lay the blame on their collective doorstep. Where, indeed, it would belong.
McCain has turned his coat on so many issues that it's a wonder he can still put it on, and that will come back to bite him sooner or later. And sooner or later, he's going to start running his mouth with his brain in hibernation mode, as he's done so often. He might also lose his temper and call the wrong person a "cunt," or the equivalent, at the wrong/right time.
No, if anyone is going to screw the Democrats up, it will be the Democrats themselves. And they seem to be working on it even as we speak.
But I make no predictions. I've made a couple in the last eight years and am still reeling with astonishment at how badly wrong they turned out.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
Posted - 05/22/2008 : 20:28:29 [Permalink]
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In the sunday chat session I suggested that Clinton as soon as possible should make a deal with Obama to be his vice president in return for stop campaigning against him. The campaign seems to be getting more and more destructive by the day, and if they continue negative campaigns they will screw themselves over so much that they'll destroy their chance for the Big Prize.
They have the opportunity to both become historical on the same day, it would be a win-win-win situation. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 05/22/2008 : 21:17:04 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
In the sunday chat session I suggested that Clinton as soon as possible should make a deal with Obama to be his vice president in return for stop campaigning against him. The campaign seems to be getting more and more destructive by the day, and if they continue negative campaigns they will screw themselves over so much that they'll destroy their chance for the Big Prize.
They have the opportunity to both become historical on the same day, it would be a win-win-win situation.
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Well, as of Wednesday, Obama is pretty much running against McCain. It would take a miracle for Clinton to win at this point.
Wether she stays in it until the end or not, Obama's focus is now on McCain. |
Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2008 : 07:32:58 [Permalink]
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Well; yeah; pretty much everybody agrees that Obama has won at this point. So, it makes sense to start focussing on the next fight.
Clinton... I am not sure of her objectives right now. Maybe build up some public reconnaissance for the next election. But she'd hardly need more... Maybe, indeed, try to leverage some kind of benefit in exchange of her dropping-out... |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2008 : 08:11:25 [Permalink]
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As an interesting side note, McCain is, at last, releasing his medical records. Or is he?
"What is McCain hiding in his medical records?
by John Aravosis (DC) · 5/23/2008 09:00:00 AM ET · Link
Joe reported yesterday on McCain's rather bizarre contortion regarding "release" of his medical records. He's not "releasing" them at all. Like some kind of supermarket game show where you get 5 minutes to stuff as many groceries in your basket before the time runs out, McCain is giving a select group of reporters only 3 hours to peruse through what are probably hundreds if not thousands of pages of documents, then when the buzzer rings, it's over, no more documents. What does McCain think this is, some kind of game? We deserve to the know if the man is going to survive in office. And playing this cute "3 hours, go!" game with his medical records, just makes it all the more suspicious. What is he hiding? More from the NYT:"
This is not acceptable. Is McCain, the "Straight Talker" to turn out as slimey an asshole as Bush? I'd hate to think it, but I don't like what I'm seeing. Here's some of what what Kos has to say about it.
"McCain health-records document dump
by smintheus
Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:00:01 PM PDT
John McCain would like the public to believe that he's the one candidate who can be trusted to talk straight with the American people about issues of concern. The problem is that his record contradicts that spin at every turn. This week brings a truly egregious example.
McCain wasn't in the best of health even before he was diagnosed with cancer in 2000, and in any case he's now 71 years old. Americans understandably are concerned about McCain's age and fitness for the office. Nevertheless McCain has delayed the release of his health records for more than a year, all the while promising to release them but claiming absurdly enough that the delays were caused by his doctors.
When does he finally release the records? On the Friday before Memorial Day. His own aides seem to admit that the timing is meant to ensure the least possible news coverage of McCain's health."
No, not acceptable at all.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2008 : 10:18:35 [Permalink]
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I do not necessarily understand all that concern with his health (FDR anyone?) personally and I can understand McCain's opinion that his health is his private matter.
After all, people know he is 71 and had cancer, if they are so concerned about the president's health that should be all what you need to know...
But I agree that, if he is going to publish his health record, he should do it fully or not do it at all. This '3 hours limit' is just plain ridiculous and even more suspicious that not revealing them at all.
But it is not that big an issue for me. Also, until we know better, I want to assume that what he is trying to hide is his collection of shameful STDs. It's more fun that way. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2008 : 11:03:54 [Permalink]
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Dr. Mabuse.....
| In the sunday chat session I suggested that Clinton as soon as possible should make a deal with Obama to be his vice president in return for stop campaigning against him. |
The problem is that there is too great an ideological gap between Obama and Billary.
Obama represents the classical left Liberal wing of the Democratic party, as originally exemplified by FDR's New Deal of the '30's. Clinton, on the other hand, is decidedly centrist/right in party alignment.
Hillary would be a strong (in the Cheney sense of "strong") vice president, demanding high participation in policymaking. Hillary, in political personification, is truly BILLary. Bill is just not the kind of guy to be a Presidential spouse promoting Boy Scout Biscuit sales and having afternoon teas on the lawn of the White House. He is, and will continue to be an important factor in Hillary's political decisions. After all, he is the quintessential political figure of the late 20th, early 21st centuries!
I don't think Obama, who has a very strong personality of his own, and the classic liberal cadre who are the power, money, and ideological force behind his candidacy, will share the power of the Presidency with the Clintonian centrist/right wing cartel.
In any event, I would not expect an early decision by Obama. I think he needs to judge the degree of difficulty of the engagement with McCain and the Rovian feces-smearing machine that he will soon face.
If it looks like it is going to be a close race, he may decide that he needs the full support of the Clinton camp to win - this would push him towards offering the VP to Billary! However, if it appears that it's going to be a cakewalk to defeat McCain, he needs to pay off his political markers, and my guess is the VP will go to Richardson.
Billary may get real bitchy and withold support unless they (B&H) get the brass ring. It will be interesting!
I can tell you all one thing. The amount of harm to the Party that this battle between Obama and Hillary has caused, has been vastly overhyped in order to fill the news cycle gaps of three TV network and three cable news organizations. Once Hillary concedes (June) the contention and division is going to vanish very quickly and settle down to trying to outdo Rove and Company in the art of sewage slinging - right up to November!
Bet on it!
The smartest choice would be Chuck Hegel, pulling in a fair chunk of the moderate Republican centrists, demonstrating bipartisanship, and assuring the true independents that Obama is not a Democratic Liberal Ideologue (although he really is!)
My money's on Richardson. We'll see! |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2008 : 14:32:00 [Permalink]
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I agree with you that the divide between the democrats is not nearly as deep and the blood not nearly as bad as presented by the media. Conflicts make for more interesting stories, of course.
Especially now that the race is essentially over, it's also Hillary's best interest not to harm her own party... (and piss off people she might need for the rest of her career) |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Dick Morris (Republican Toady) reports
