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Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
 Posted - 01/22/2003 : 17:03:17 [Permalink]
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| Sorry this is a bit off topic but, does anyone have any credible info or the equation(if there is one) for the probability of life? I have heard some numbers, but is there any backing? |
If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
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Slater
SFN Regular
USA
1668 Posts |
Posted - 01/22/2003 : 17:28:11 [Permalink]
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The probability of life is one chance in one.
There is life so the idea of probability does not apply.
It's like the odds on a horse race. If the odds on a horse are a thousand to one and the horse wins the odds become one to one. That's why you can't bet on yesterdays horse race. |
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Slater
SFN Regular
USA
1668 Posts |
Posted - 01/22/2003 : 17:33:34 [Permalink]
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I guess the unsure readers might find it useful, but maybe it's time to agree to disagree. Any thoughts?
When Creationists stop trying to replace facts being taught in school with their magic fairy tales we will call a halt. So long as our children's futures are threatened by these superstitious morons the fight goes on. |
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Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
Posted - 01/22/2003 : 19:57:39 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Slater
The probability of life is one chance in one.
There is life so the idea of probability does not apply.
It's like the odds on a horse race. If the odds on a horse are a thousand to one and the horse wins the odds become one to one. That's why you can't bet on yesterdays horse race.
This is off topic I'll start a new thread |
If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
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welshdean
Skeptic Friend
United Kingdom
172 Posts |
Posted - 01/23/2003 : 01:44:25 [Permalink]
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quote:
originally posted by Fireballin':
Sorry this is a bit off topic but, does anyone have any credible info or the equation(if there is one) for the probability of life?
I'm unaware of an equation relating to the possibility of life (although you could simply ignore the last few lines of the equation below (fi, fc, fL). If you're interested in the possibility of intelligent life however, then the equation is:
Nc = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
The Drake Equation was developed in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake. It can determine how many possible intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy.
The equation represents the following:
N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them.
ne number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate.
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations may survive.
When all of these variables are multiplied, we get:
Nc, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.
http://www.planetarysystems.org/drake_equation.html
I know this is off topic, but dumb-ar is really annoying me now!
When they calculate the possibilities of Intelligent Life, do they exclude creationists from the final number?
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"Service to others is the rent you pay for your room here on earth."
---- Muhammad Ali
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Doomar
SFN Regular
USA
714 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2003 : 20:16:48 [Permalink]
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It's like the odds on a horse race. If the odds on a horse are a thous[quote]Originally posted by Slater
The probability of life is one chance in one.
There is life so the idea of probability does not apply.
Are you saying then, that the odds of "life coming from the ooze" is one in one? With that same "logic" the odds of God creating all living things is also one to one. So which is true? This tends to highlight the misuse of probability by the evolutionist. Scientifically, i.e., using logic and modern knowledge of the complexity of the simplest of life forms, the probability of life arising by chance is, in fact, zero. |
Mark 10:27 (NKJV) 27But Jesus looked at them and said, “With men it is impossible, but not with God; for with God all things are possible.”
www.pastorsb.com.htm |
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Slater
SFN Regular
USA
1668 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2003 : 21:57:34 [Permalink]
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Why do you keep refering to primitive superstitions as if they had any merit?
And the question was about the probability of life not the origin. |
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NubiWan
Skeptic Friend
USA
424 Posts |
Posted - 01/25/2003 : 13:59:38 [Permalink]
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| "Drake's Equation" is IMO a perfect example of an "educated guess." It's merit lies in the factors included to arrive at the guess. Even with science, there are still things, that we just don't know.., yet. |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
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Infamous
Skeptic Friend
85 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2003 : 11:10:04 [Permalink]
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Regarding the link posted above:
lol. All those circular arguments are making me dizzy. |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2003 : 18:51:46 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by welshdean
quote:
originally posted by Fireballin':
Sorry this is a bit off topic but, does anyone have any credible info or the equation(if there is one) for the probability of life?
I'm unaware of an equation relating to the possibility of life (although you could simply ignore the last few lines of the equation below (fi, fc, fL). If you're interested in the possibility of intelligent life however, then the equation is:
Nc = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
The Drake Equation was developed in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake. It can determine how many possible intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy.
When all of these variables are multiplied, we get:
Nc, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.
http://www.planetarysystems.org/drake_equation.html
I know this is off topic, but dumb-ar is really annoying me now!
When they calculate the possibilities of Intelligent Life, do they exclude creationists from the final number?
The link above presents some dubious numbers for their probability esitmates. Some things not taken into accout are really important and should not have been left out.
quote:
number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life
Question: For each star that has a planetary system, how many planets are capable of sustaining life?
Answer: estimates range from 1 to 2.
This is a very poor estimate. There are well over 80 planetary systems discovered, but as yet the only system we know of with a planet capable of sustaining life is our own. Our detection system is not accurate enough yet to detect planets small enough to be interesting.
However, there are a few issues not addressed in that web-page, (and in regards to the Drake Formula) that must be taken into account.
After determining the fraction of stars with planetary systems, we must also find out the fraction of those planetary systems that have a star that does not prevent the formation of life. Stars of spectral class A,B,O, or higher are too hot. They have too much energy output in the ultra-violet spectra (causing photo-dissociation of important molecules, like water and primitive amino-acids) and their life span is far too short. The average life span of a class A-star (like Sirius) has an estimated average lifespan of 500 million years in the mail sequence. That does not give planets enough time to form, and cool enough to reach a temperature where life can happen, with spare time left for life to form.
Remember, while it only took about 200 million years for life to form on Earth (from the point where Earth had cooled off enough, and the major cometary bombardment from the accretion disk had dropped below the point of causing major disturbances to the surface) but it took 3 billion years for bacteria to evolve into multi-cellular life forms.
The life span of a class F0 star is estimated to be about 2,7 billion years. That pretty much rules out most of the F-class stars. Life will certainly have to race hard in order to produce intelligence before the star becomes a red giant that swallows up the poor planet it's living on.
I just remember another thing too that I haven't seem mentioned in discussions on the Drake formula: All main-sequence stars have a slowly increasing luminosity. Our sun has increased it's luminance by 30% since it entered the Main Sequence in the beginning of it's life. As time goes by, the increasing enery output of the sun will eventually heat up the earth enough to boil away our oceans, and cause an accelerating greenhouse-effect, the result will be a transformation of our lovely earth into the same inferno that is Venus. This will start to happen in another billion years or so.
Another problem when a planetary system is forming: Too large planets will prevent smaller planets from forming in the orbits close to the giant planet due to gravitational disruptions. Jupiter's gravitational field disrupted the formation of a planet where the asteroid belt is. If we put a jupiter-sized planet at Mercury's orbit, a planet would probably never form at Earth's orbit.
Now, I'm very new to this forum, so I hope that anyone disagreeing with what I have written, please be gentle with me. I've just taken two courses of Astronomy at the local University, and have no special education in scientific method except common sense. If you are going to critisize me, please be constructive... |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2003 : 19:38:04 [Permalink]
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Hey Dr......I don't even need to know the probability of intelligent life , I need to know if an equation is possible to give the odds of life. Life occurred, in retrospect what are the odds.
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If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
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Slater
SFN Regular
USA
1668 Posts |
Posted - 02/08/2003 : 23:51:40 [Permalink]
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If the enviromental conditions are those of early Earth they are a sure thing. What is so hard to understand about this? There are no odds on something that has happened.
If Jane Doe won the lottery yesterday and a million other people played the odds that she did win--without the use of magic--are still a sure thing.
You don't need very exact conditions for life to exist. You can find it in the upper atmosphere and three miles below the surface of the Earth. It thrives in the high pressure of boiling water in the deep sea vents. Where life can exist it does exist because it adapts (evolves) to the conditions at hand. The first mass extinction was cause by proto algae releasing oxygen into the atmosphere. Oxygen killed most of the life on Earth. Now we can only live for seconds without it.
The probability of an imaginary god existing, by the bye, is zero. Why do you cling to these childish superstitions?
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| Edited by - Slater on 02/08/2003 23:53:19 |
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Tim
SFN Regular
USA
775 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2003 : 00:52:15 [Permalink]
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Intelligent Design via Judeo-Christian mythology? Not much intelligence involved in an Omniscient/omnipotent being designing something, and then regretting it later.
Sorry about moving back toward the subject...but, I've always wondered why skeptics start a discussion about the weaknesses of pseudoscience, and invariably wind up defending real science. Proponents of pseudoscience do seem to be very effective at changing the subject. |
"We got an issue in America. Too many good docs are gettin' out of business. Too many OB/GYNs aren't able to practice their -- their love with women all across this country." Dubya in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 9/6/2004
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| Edited by - Tim on 02/09/2003 00:59:54 |
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Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
Posted - 02/09/2003 : 01:06:17 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Slater
If the enviromental conditions are those of early Earth they are a sure thing. What is so hard to understand about this? There are no odds on something that has happened.
If Jane Doe won the lottery yesterday and a million other people played the odds that she did win--without the use of magic--are still a sure thing.
You don't need very exact conditions for life to exist. You can find it in the upper atmosphere and three miles below the surface of the Earth. It thrives in the high pressure of boiling water in the deep sea vents. Where life can exist it does exist because it adapts (evolves) to the conditions at hand. The first mass extinction was cause by proto algae releasing oxygen into the atmosphere. Oxygen killed most of the life on Earth. Now we can only live for seconds without it.
The probability of an imaginary god existing, by the bye, is zero. Why do you cling to these childish superstitions?
If Jane Doe won the lottery and a million other people played, her odds of winning are a million to one. You are so caught up in magic, you are losing your focus. |
If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
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