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marvin
Skeptic Friend

77 Posts

Posted - 08/11/2001 :  02:46:25  Show Profile Send marvin a Private Message

Lisa
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 08/11/2001 :  03:07:17   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Lisa a Private Message
IMO, the level of the evidence should be consistant with the claim. If I told you I'd been to see the movie "Shrek", what evidence would you demand (assuming you cared). A ticket stub? A synopis of the plot? Or is the claim so mundane, you'll take my word for it?
If I said I have a purple efreet living in my kitchen, I would hope you'd demand more substancial evidence than my good word.
An extraordiary claim should require equally extraordinary proof.
Lisa

Chaos...Confusion...Destruction...My Work Here Is Done
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@tomic
Administrator

USA
4607 Posts

Posted - 08/11/2001 :  04:48:30   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit @tomic's Homepage Send @tomic a Private Message
Ya know, if people could just figure that one thing out skeptics would sure have an easier job

@tomic

Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law!
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marvin
Skeptic Friend

77 Posts

Posted - 08/11/2001 :  19:50:02   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send marvin a Private Message
Hi Lisa, Hi @tomic,

The specific claim is psi and the evidence is the Autoganzfeld experiments with a +9% success rate. That is when 25% is chance and 34% was the final result.

It's the negative definition of psi, that is, after the results are tabulated and ‘everything' else is eliminated before psi can be claimed is what IMO makes psi an extraordinary claim. Parapsychology has a shifting database and every few years an announcement of ‘proof' is made and then the story seems to fade away. In other sciences the defining phenomena can be reliably observed and do not require indirect statistical measures to justify their existence. Parapsychology is the only field of science inquiry that does not have even one exemplar for which they can confidently specify conditions that will let anyone, even a novice, to reliably witness the phenomenon. These exemplars are also the basis for initiating new members into the field of research. Acceptable evidence for the presence of anomalous cognition must be based on a positive theory that tells us when psi should and should not be present.

In one ear and out the other. I was considering perhaps an ‘anecdotal' short story: The boy who cried wolf, Chicken Little, or perhaps some Greek mythological tale. The more straightforward the better.

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comradebillyboy
Skeptic Friend

USA
188 Posts

Posted - 08/11/2001 :  21:16:19   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send comradebillyboy a Private Message
quote:

The specific claim is psi and the evidence is the Autoganzfeld experiments with a +9% success rate. That is when 25% is chance and 34% was the final result.



one problem with examining "psychic" phenomena scientifically is designing experiments that are meaningful. if i got a perfect score on the test, how can i determine if it was a complete fluke, or if i actually have psi talents?
the other huge problem to overcome if one wants to do a rigorous examination of purported psi phenomena is the pseudo-scientific nonsense about the field, not to mention the amount of outright fraud. its really difficult to take any claims about psi seriously.

i completly agree with the idea that exraordinary claims rrequire extaordinary evidence.

comrade billyboy
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PhDreamer
SFN Regular

USA
925 Posts

Posted - 08/12/2001 :  09:55:19   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit PhDreamer's Homepage Send PhDreamer a Private Message
quote:

quote:

The specific claim is psi and the evidence is the Autoganzfeld experiments with a +9% success rate. That is when 25% is chance and 34% was the final result.



one problem with examining "psychic" phenomena scientifically is designing experiments that are meaningful. if i got a perfect score on the test, how can i determine if it was a complete fluke, or if i actually have psi talents?
the other huge problem to overcome if one wants to do a rigorous examination of purported psi phenomena is the pseudo-scientific nonsense about the field, not to mention the amount of outright fraud. its really difficult to take any claims about psi seriously.




I suppose if one could make a convincing case that psi is the only variable being manipulated, then the results could be compared to the alpha-level and a decision made accordingly. The problem is that there's no apparent way to isolate and control for psi. Psi cannot be selectively applied by the experimenter, which leaves the experimenter in less than total control of the variable being measured and renders the whole thing meaningless. It could be just as easily argued that angels are momentarily inhabiting the bodies of the subjects during the times they are giving responses. And as a corollary, there's no apparent way to control for the absence of the variable. "Those of you in group B, we would like you to guess the shapes on these cards but, assuming you have any type of extrasensory perception, you are to refrain from using ESP for the duration of the experiment. If we see waves emanating from your heads, the experiment will end immediately and you won't receive credit!" It's possible that +9 is significant, but experimenter's rule no. 1 is never to take anything for granted, which includes statistical chance levels.

quote:

i completly agree with the idea that exraordinary claims rrequire extaordinary evidence.




I think Sagan was just being a bit melodramatic. If a god shows up in the Mall of America, it's not like we can ask him to create another universe to prove he is who he claims.


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comradebillyboy
Skeptic Friend

USA
188 Posts

Posted - 08/13/2001 :  07:17:17   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send comradebillyboy a Private Message
so are you saying that purported psi phenomena cannot, at this time, be studied using the scientific method ie osberve, hypothesize, experiment, conclude with a theory that explains observations? (yes i know its a bit oversimplified bit i dont want to write a book.)

comrade billyboy
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Trish
SFN Addict

USA
2102 Posts

Posted - 08/13/2001 :  22:27:18   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Trish a Private Message
OK Marvin - should have responded when I first read this - but here goes....

Testimony is allegorical evidence - doesn't really hold water. Get 100 people together to watch an event and ask them to describe it - you'll get 100 different answers.

As long as he's making the claim, you aren't required to give proof of negativity. They are however required to give proof in support. They must also supply a testable hypothesis.

Maybe this will help also, from Popper:

quote:
I shall not require of a scientific system that it shall be capable of being singled out, once and for all, in a positive sense; but I shall require that its logical form shall be such that it can be singled out, by means of empirical tests, in a negative sense: it must be possible for an empirical scientific system to be refuted by experience.


Basically he requires that the hypothesis be one that is capable of being refuted. No authoritarian stances in science. Paranormal activities tend to fall into the authoritarian hypothesis.

He's YOUR god, they're YOUR rules, YOU burn in hell!
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marvin
Skeptic Friend

77 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2001 :  00:32:08   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send marvin a Private Message
Trish,

Thanks for your response.

When I used the ‘all theories must be falsifiable' quote, I was charged with “Argument Ad Ignorantiam” --- That ‘absence of evidence does not constitute evidence of absence'.

I responded with:

It depends on the burden of proof.
In a court of law a defendant is innocent until proven guilty. So an absence of evidence, does indeed under the rules of law, constitute evidence of absence. There are exceptions to the logical fallacy: Argument Ad Ignorantiam. --- Now it seems that ‘inductive reasoning' can't prove anything therefore an open mind is necessary. grrrrrrr.

Does anyone have any links to something like a police / military officer training manual, or something that may show how unreliable ‘eye witness' testimony is. Perhaps some law review article or study.
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Slater
SFN Regular

USA
1668 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2001 :  05:24:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Slater a Private Message
quote:

I think Sagan was just being a bit melodramatic. If a god shows up in the Mall of America, it's not like we can ask him to create another universe to prove he is who he claims.



Sagan knew "the difference between shit and Shine-o-la"
And if a god showed up that was the universe creatin' sort of god (unlike the thousands of other gods who were not) why couldn't you ask him to?

-------
The brain that was stolen from my laboratory was a criminal brain. Only evil will come from it.
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PhDreamer
SFN Regular

USA
925 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2001 :  08:23:11   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit PhDreamer's Homepage Send PhDreamer a Private Message
quote:

so are you saying that purported psi phenomena cannot, at this time, be studied using the scientific method ie osberve, hypothesize, experiment, conclude with a theory that explains observations? (yes i know its a bit oversimplified bit i dont want to write a book.)




I'd say that is as good a summary as any.


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PhDreamer
SFN Regular

USA
925 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2001 :  08:32:28   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit PhDreamer's Homepage Send PhDreamer a Private Message
quote:


Does anyone have any links to something like a police / military officer training manual, or something that may show how unreliable ‘eye witness' testimony is. Perhaps some law review article or study.



This might be of some help: http://www.csicop.org/si/9511/eyewitness.html
In my limited experience, it seems like some psych grad or adjunct at every major university has done such a study. I know there is one here at West Florida. Dr. Claudia Stanny, with whom I have spoken briefly about her work. The link from the school's website appears to have gone dead, though.


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PhDreamer
SFN Regular

USA
925 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2001 :  08:36:38   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit PhDreamer's Homepage Send PhDreamer a Private Message
quote:

quote:

I think Sagan was just being a bit melodramatic. If a god shows up in the Mall of America, it's not like we can ask him to create another universe to prove he is who he claims.



Sagan knew "the difference between shit and Shine-o-la"
And if a god showed up that was the universe creatin' sort of god (unlike the thousands of other gods who were not) why couldn't you ask him to?




Well, I suppose we could, but considering adjacent universes are not currently observable, a fat lot of good it would do . We'd have to take his word for it at some point.


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Slater
SFN Regular

USA
1668 Posts

Posted - 08/14/2001 :  10:13:38   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Slater a Private Message
quote:

Well, I suppose we could, but considering adjacent universes are not currently observable, a fat lot of good it would do .


Okay then, just a small universe. Say about the size of an SUV. It could fit in the mall and take a lot less than 6 days to make.

But if you are going to take peoples word for unobservable miracles...then I just happen to have made Universe II myself. And in it nothing tends towards chaos. Leave your desk in a mess and it will naturally neaten itself up. Dust falls OFF furniture, and there are no bad hair days.
Now please start singing my praise, amen

-------
The brain that was stolen from my laboratory was a criminal brain. Only evil will come from it.
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Slater
SFN Regular

USA
1668 Posts

Posted - 08/15/2001 :  18:39:59   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Slater a Private Message
quote:


The specific claim is psi and the evidence is the Autoganzfeld experiments with a +9% success rate. That is when 25% is chance and 34% was the final result....
I was considering perhaps an ‘anecdotal' short story...perhaps some Greek mythological tale. The more straightforward the better.



I know just the classic tale thar curtinly fits.

Hey Moe! I tried ta think but nuthin' happened. Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk.
--Jerome Howard


I cannot think of any physical or mental activity that I conduct that I cannot accomplish two thirds of the time. Not only can't do it but don't know if I'm doing it or not unless someone else tells me.
And this is supposed to be the "proof" for PSI? 9 percent better than guessing? Still sounds like guessing to me.

The real question is--what knucklehead wrote the grant for this foolishness, and how do we get our hands on their funding?


-------
The brain that was stolen from my laboratory was a criminal brain. Only evil will come from it.
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Lisa
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 08/15/2001 :  18:52:06   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Lisa a Private Message
quote:

The real question is--what knucklehead wrote the grant for this foolishness, and how do we get our hands on their funding?


By coming up with something even sillier. In your abstract though, make sure you include lots of new age speak, sprinkle with technobabble to make it truly incomprehensible.
When you get the grant, let us know. I think we should all go to Jamaica for an in-depth study. Who knows? We may find another Miss Cleo!
Lisa

Chaos...Confusion...Destruction...My Work Here Is Done
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