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ljbrs
SFN Regular
USA
842 Posts |
 Posted - 08/15/2001 : 18:55:14 [Permalink]
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quote:
Now please start singing my praise, amen
Slater, the all-wise, all-knowing god buster upper. Praise be, praise be, praise be to Slater, the all-mighty, all-knowing one!
ljbrs  
Perfection Is a State of Growth... |
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Trish
SFN Addict
USA
2102 Posts |
Posted - 08/15/2001 : 19:03:41 [Permalink]
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Marvin,
Sounds like this individual is well versed in logical arguments. But logic is not a be all and end all of proof. Remind him that if A is true and B is false then C is false. Logic does not necessarily guarantee a correct answer.
All your asking for is sufficient proof to convince you that psi is real. 9% is inadequate. What else do they have besides the Autoganzfeld tests? Do they have any other substantiating evidence?
Sorry not much more help here. Try CSICOP as mentioned elsewhere.
He's YOUR god, they're YOUR rules, YOU burn in hell! |
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PhDreamer
SFN Regular
USA
925 Posts |
Posted - 08/15/2001 : 19:50:14 [Permalink]
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quote:
quote:
Well, I suppose we could, but considering adjacent universes are not currently observable, a fat lot of good it would do  .
Okay then, just a small universe. Say about the size of an SUV. It could fit in the mall and take a lot less than 6 days to make.
I guess it just seemed silly to me to ask him to create another 'set of everything' inside or perhaps visible from our 'set of everything.' Though this does seem like a triviality for an omnipotent being.
quote:
But if you are going to take peoples word for unobservable miracles...then I just happen to have made Universe II myself. And in it nothing tends towards chaos. Leave your desk in a mess and it will naturally neaten itself up. Dust falls OFF furniture, and there are no bad hair days.
Now please start singing my praise, amen
Slaterism? Slaterology?
This signature does not exist. |
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marvin
Skeptic Friend
77 Posts |
Posted - 08/16/2001 : 07:49:08 [Permalink]
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I found a very good explanation at Quackwatch! And I changed it slightly:
Why do extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof?
First, it is important to understand that the strength of a conclusion is a function both of the quality of the evidence provided in its support and the a priori probability of the claim being supported.
Suppose that a neighbor, who is considered a reliable source, tells us: (1) that President Bush has vetoed legislation that places restrictions on trade with China and (2) that Vice President Richard Cheney has switched to the Democratic party. Most people would be much more confident of the truth of the first report than of the second, even though the source is identical. The difference lies in the a priori plausibility of the claims.
What are the ‘odds' in favor of each claim. A claim with a 90% probability of being true and a 10% probability of being false, then the odds are 90 to 10 or 9 to 1. A claim with a 20% probability of being true is 20 to 80 or 0.25 to 1.
Now consider the source or the quality of the evidence. A good source might multiply the odds by 200, a fair source by 10 and an unreliable source could receive a negative multiple (0.1). Let's say that the neighbor is reliable and multiply the odds by 100.
The odds that the veto took place is 50-50 (1-1 odds) X (100) = 100 to 1 in favor. Now the bit about Mr. Cheney switching parties is (100,000 to 1) or (0.00001 to 1) X (100) = 0.001 to 1 in favor. Very unlikely that Mr. Cheney would switch party affiliation and practically implausible he would become a Democrat.
So evidence provided by the same source has different conclusions because of the different a priori probabilities.
This inductive reasoning is used everyday from the moment you wakeup in the morning, choosing attire, breakfast, route to work, lunch, office politics, route home, supper or dinner, exercise, and entertainment choices, until you go to bed at night. --- Remember to set the alarm.
IMO The probabilities of paranormal claims are considered extraordinary because of their (negative) a priori probability. Decades of study and huge amounts of research have been conducted into the claims of the paranormal with most results, not all, after rigorous controls, showing merely chance. Time and time again, trickery, fakery and self-deception have been the prevailing explanations of paranormal claims.
Statistical deviations from chance exemplified in the Autoganzfeld studies have not been fully explained, however they still --- IMO --- merit a negative a priori probability.
==============================
Now it seems that an ‘a priori probability' is just someone's opinion, scientific opinion justifies no respect, cognitive relativism I assume, attempting to ‘relativize' logical positivism?
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Tokyodreamer
SFN Regular
USA
1447 Posts |
Posted - 08/16/2001 : 09:37:31 [Permalink]
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Problem is, as soon as you use a term like "a priori", they turn their noses up and shut you out, because they think you're a snotty egghead...
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Ma gavte la nata!
Edited by - tokyodreamer on 08/16/2001 09:38:24 |
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marvin
Skeptic Friend
77 Posts |
Posted - 08/16/2001 : 10:55:14 [Permalink]
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PhDreamer,
Thanks for the csicop link, I did a search there for ‘goat/sheep' and that particular link didn't come up, but should have. After being hit over the head with the Gertrude Schmeidler study I really needed it. I should have searched for ‘Eyewitness Testimony' so much info, no one could claim that eyewitness testimony is reliable.
“The real question is--what knucklehead wrote the grant for this foolishness, and how do we get our hands on their funding?” ---Slater
The Rhine Research Center in Durham, North Carolina is constructing a new facility $300,000 to $500,000. {if they're psychic shouldn't they know…} They hope to be in the new facility by April 2002 and it will be considered a ‘renaissance for psychic studies'.
My favorite quote; “We're very confident we're not wasting our time” from John Palmer, director of the Rhine Research Center. ---Raleigh News & Observer
Slater it's only one dollar per brick. {Those who contribute $100 or more will be commemorated as part of our "Psi Path." Their names will be engraved on a stone (sizes will vary based on contribution) and set in the path leading to the entrance of the RRC.} ---The Bricks and Mortar Campaign
Aren't they worried about the ‘goat' effect, I mean what if someone steps on a ‘bad' stone on the way in. It is possible for someone to change their mind, in a few years, and become a disbeliever. If the Rhine parapsychologists truly believe in psychometry they should avoid its potential effect. There should be a building ordinance; “No Goats Allowed”
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Slater
SFN Regular
USA
1668 Posts |
Posted - 08/16/2001 : 13:23:17 [Permalink]
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quote:
Slater it's only one dollar per brick.
$1 a brick? You don't have to be psychic to know that that isn't enough.
I keep a Psi meter in the glove compartment of my car. Looks something like a ball point pen. A rod with numbers pops out to show how supernatural my tires are. Maybe they would like it.
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The brain that was stolen from my laboratory was a criminal brain. Only evil will come from it. |
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Orpheus
Skeptic Friend
92 Posts |
Posted - 08/24/2001 : 08:02:43 [Permalink]
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Everybody who believes in Psi, please raise my hand...
Something Slater said made me think about this: If God did come down and proclaimed some wonderful something, how would we know it was God, and not some advanced alien race, and for that matter, why would God's word be any more acceptable or valuable than Carl Sagan's, or any other person's? It seems to me that even in appealing to miraculous events/causes, some non-skeptics are STILL not showing why their beliefs hold more or any water at all.
(I just scanned this thread, so forgive me if my comments are completely off track)
Find your own damned answers! |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 08/24/2001 : 10:18:48 [Permalink]
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quote:
PhDreamer,
Thanks for the csicop link, I did a search there for ‘goat/sheep' and that particular link didn't come up, but should have. After being hit over the head with the Gertrude Schmeidler study I really needed it. I should have searched for ‘Eyewitness Testimony' so much info, no one could claim that eyewitness testimony is reliable.
“The real question is--what knucklehead wrote the grant for this foolishness, and how do we get our hands on their funding?” ---Slater
The Rhine Research Center in Durham, North Carolina is constructing a new facility $300,000 to $500,000. {if they're psychic shouldn't they know…} They hope to be in the new facility by April 2002 and it will be considered a ‘renaissance for psychic studies'.
My favorite quote; “We're very confident we're not wasting our time” from John Palmer, director of the Rhine Research Center. ---Raleigh News & Observer
Slater it's only one dollar per brick. {Those who contribute $100 or more will be commemorated as part of our "Psi Path." Their names will be engraved on a stone (sizes will vary based on contribution) and set in the path leading to the entrance of the RRC.} ---The Bricks and Mortar Campaign
Aren't they worried about the ‘goat' effect, I mean what if someone steps on a ‘bad' stone on the way in. It is possible for someone to change their mind, in a few years, and become a disbeliever. If the Rhine parapsychologists truly believe in psychometry they should avoid its potential effect. There should be a building ordinance; “No Goats Allowed”
Ya know, the last time goats were barred entrance to anywhere, the Cubbies lost the World Series and they haven't been back since. Sounds like a serious problem for them.
Chicago Cubs -- 1908 World Series Champs
1945, 1969, 1985, 2001 Division hopefuls.
Valiant Dancer (Die-hard northsider)
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