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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
 Posted - 02/08/2006 : 05:46:05
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Thought you all might like an update since this new information came out today.
Study results published
There's also now spread to a chicken farm in Nigeria. And there's been some genetic changes in some strains increasing the virus' ability to infect human cells.
We probably have a few more months or even longer before the first big wave but I just don't see how this ball's momentum is going to slow to a stop.
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/11/2006 : 03:33:14 [Permalink]
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And on.
quote:
Fowl have been dying in large numbers across northern Nigeria for the past 4 weeks and surveillance teams have been sent to scour northern Nigeria in search of suspect farms.
Once identified, farms are placed under quarantine and birds marked for destruction if infected.
The BBC reported on Thursday that farmers in northern Nigeria are rushing to sell dead chickens at cut-price rates before government bans are put into place.
In addition to panic selling of sick birds, there are also the problems of having no health or veternary infrastructure, and the fact this outbreak is already too old to control. Outbreaks have to be stopped within a week or two of occurring or the spread is too far to stop.
And, as if that weren't enough, it now looks like this was indeed spread by wild bird migration. Nigeria is not the only country in Africa those birds winter in. |
| Edited by - beskeptigal on 02/11/2006 03:38:31 |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/11/2006 : 09:14:21 [Permalink]
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Yeah, the migration routes will take the infected birds from Africa to all over Europe. One the final mutations are in place, this looks to be shaping up to become something like the Spanish Flu pandemic of the last century. Megadeaths.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/12/2006 : 00:58:38 [Permalink]
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WHO and the UN experts keep adding the "we don't really know" caveat, and, the latest is, "It's good news that only one strain of H5N1 (there are several versions in circulation now) has spread very far".
This virus has been circulating since at least 1997 when the first human deaths were recorded. It turned out it has been well entrenched in China for quite some time and who knows how many human cases there have been. Each new attempt to control or eradicate it has failed and the virus has spread farther and wider. In the last few months it took off like a wild fire. At least one strain (the one that is circulating) has made a genetic change that allows it to more easily infect human cells. It's now in a country and a continent with no infrastructure to control it and it's been there too long to stop anyway. Humans all over the affected areas have already shown some will ignore control measures and even hide sick birds or sell them quickly. Smuggled birds continue to spread the infection.
And the WHO and UN are still making official statements to the press that there may be hope.
We have time, but it is very unlikely a pandemic is not in the making. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/12/2006 : 01:15:42 [Permalink]
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Mr grandfather, a "pill-roller" in Richland, Missouri, died when "Spanish influenza" swept the US, leaving my father, and his mother and brother, in relative poverty. This flu seems to have about the same heavy fatality rates for those few who are now catching it from birds as did the "Spanish" pandemic.
Assuming it got that final mutation for human-human transmission, and no antivirals or immunization programs were effective, do you have any idea, B, how long people would have to hole up in their homes to wait out such a pandemic? Or is this even practical at all?
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 02/12/2006 01:16:49 |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/12/2006 : 14:23:10 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by HalfMooner
Mr grandfather, a "pill-roller" in Richland, Missouri, died when "Spanish influenza" swept the US, leaving my father, and his mother and brother, in relative poverty. This flu seems to have about the same heavy fatality rates for those few who are now catching it from birds as did the "Spanish" pandemic.
Assuming it got that final mutation for human-human transmission, and no antivirals or immunization programs were effective, do you have any idea, B, how long people would have to hole up in their homes to wait out such a pandemic? Or is this even practical at all?
The virus will spread in successive waves and if it matches the 1918 version, 2 years.
But you have options and the US and other countries will be better prepared. In 1918, the death rate here was considerably less than in other countries. In Asia, the fatality rate for those who got infected was ~30%. In Africa it was closer to 50%. In Europe and North America, it was much lower but I've forgotten the number.
Keep in mind when looking at fatality rates, you have to also factor in case rate. Rabies in 100% fatal (one exception) but how many people get it? If flu infects 33% of the population (usual is 10-30% case rate/yr)and only has a fatality rate of 6%, that still means 2 of every 100 people in the country will die. That's a lot of people.
In the developed countries the biggest problems are going to be overwhelmed understaffed hospitals. That also gives you related fatalities.
All you have to do to prevent flu is to wash your hands, avoid touching your face, especially your eyes, and stay 3 feet away from everyone else. (Generally speaking.)
My big worry isn't me, it's my son. He doesn't do nearly enough to prevent getting viral infections. |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/13/2006 : 11:03:24 [Permalink]
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| Italy and Greece are now reporting the high virility H5N1. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/13/2006 : 12:27:27 [Permalink]
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And the Nigerian government while claiming to have quarantined the affected farms has done nothing else like restricting bird transport. People culling the birds have almost no protective clothing. Also interviewed was a woman from Kinshasha, Rep of Congo, who said with AIDS, malaria, measles, and TB, who's going to notice one more deadly disease? "They're not going to take my chickens, we need them for food."
The WHO is still spouting the things that need to be done. I say, look around and revise the plan knowing those things are not going to be done no matter how many times you repeat it.
And still no one is even looking at the pigs. We have looked in the past and they had H5N1 with no symptoms.
And yesterday we had this report, (last one in citation), of the fact this is actually the third or so wave of H5N1 that has fanned out from China in the last decade. No one really knows how many other deaths have occurred that went untested. My guess is not that many but now the virus is infecting more and more humans. Unless there is some genetic barrier and we haven't seen one yet, the drift toward becoming a human disease is marching on. |
| Edited by - beskeptigal on 02/13/2006 12:53:40 |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/13/2006 : 12:29:04 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
high virility H5N1.
HPAI, H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza to be precise. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/13/2006 : 14:52:18 [Permalink]
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Thanks, B. I guess two years is bit long for me to hunker down in my home, then.
The information you give is very startling. I agree, the WHO has to start with ideas that Africans are actually able to carry out, in terms of their infrastructure (in many places near enough to none as no make no difference), customs (diverse), and village economics (subsistence, when times are good).
Telling Africans that they should, in effect, act like they are living in developed countries is worse than useless. The woman you mention talking about keeping her chickens, has a point, from a strictly personal viewpoint of knowing she has to eat. In one (unrelated) recent viral oubreak in West Africa, it was clear that public health people were actually being blamed by the populace for the outbreak, and had to evacuate in fear of their lives.
BigPapaSmurf informed us:
quote:
Italy and Greece are now reporting the high virility H5N1.
When we get hit here, that's the strain I want to get! "High virility," indeed! Go out having some fun!
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2006 : 10:58:05 [Permalink]
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STILL GOING! Swans in Austria have been tested positive. Viagra in the water I guess, these little bugs must be Catholic.
Edit: Iranian Swans as well http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/02/14/D8FOU4VO0.html |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 02/14/2006 11:01:04 |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2006 : 11:04:01 [Permalink]
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| And who knows how far it has really spread in Africa but it surely is wider than just northern Nigeria or it soon will be. I read a serious estimate it will result in a 90% loss of poultry in Africa between infection and culling. On the Nigerian farm first affected (or rather first noticed) there were something like 24,000 birds and 22,000 of them died of the flu. The rest were culled. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2006 : 23:01:43 [Permalink]
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Time to stock up on Lysol.
The Spanish flu (nicknamed the Spanish Lady by some) of 1918 killed something like 40million people.
The world population has increased significantly since then, and population densities in certian areas are way way higher.
If H5N1 becomes easily pathogenic in humans, it could cause death tolls to make the 1918 flu look like a summer cold. Imagine this virus on the loose in the big cities of countries without solid infrastructure and large populations without ready access to basics like unlimited clean water and soap.
Hope it never makes the big jump to humans.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/15/2006 : 14:11:51 [Permalink]
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Well this is certainly sobering:quote:
When burying a body in the backyard, don't put it too close to the septic system.
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| Edited by - beskeptigal on 02/15/2006 14:12:30 |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/15/2006 : 15:20:23 [Permalink]
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Well, thanks. That cuts it: I'm ordering N-95 face masks, antiseptic hand wipe packets, and surgical gloves, for the event that the pandemic hits and I have to go out and get food. I've already stopped feeding wild birds; they're on their own for the duration.
I probably won't wear that gear until others are doing so, too, because looking geeky has its limits, even for me, even in this case. But getting that stuff during the pandemic will probably be impossible.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 02/16/2006 : 02:02:36 [Permalink]
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| Don't forget the eye shield with the face mask. |
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