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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
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Hal
Skeptic Friend
USA
302 Posts |
 Posted - 10/24/2011 : 13:44:35 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
Really weird in what he/she is saying, take a look at this post:
So I basically suck at riddles, but I have become obsessed with this... so I recruited some help. I emailed the equation to my sister (the math and science brainiac) and when she emailed me the answer- I almost fell out of my chair! Now it's important to note, that I didn't tell her anything about the equation, where I got it or why I needed it. Here's what she sent me:
"So the left side of the equation means the probability of event A occurring given that b occurs so for example if A was a random day of the year and B is a day in october the probability of A occurring during B is 1/31 since there are 31 days in October.
The right side, top part means basically all the things that both A and B encompass. So instead let's make A days in October (any 31 one of them) and B be days in the year. So A upsidedown U B would be 31 because that is what they have in common. Lastly divide that by B (365).
It seems like a pointless equation, mostly showing how they got the left side I think. I'll take the example of october days (a) and days of the year (b) and work through it. The P always is probability
So the probability of having a day of October randomly picked from all the days of the year is 31/365 (or .0849). equals the days that A and B have in common (31) divided by B (365) which is again .0849.
Maybe in a different context that would make since but it just shows how you get the probability of an event occurring if something else is occurring. Hopefully that made sense."
WOW! I could NOT believe what she used to describe this equation to me! I mean come on- the probability of something occurring in Oct?! Really? WOW!
I LOVE THIS THREAD!
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Well, this excerpt does show me that you're not the only one out there who freaks out over the most utterly inconsequential coincidences.
So, this idiot's sister gives him an example -- and picks October! ZOMGWTF!!! The odds of that are like, 1 in 12! You know what's even freakier? With no prompting, she actually picked the current month to illustrate her example!
Think I'll go cry in the corner over that one.
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flanagan1000
Banned
413 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2011 : 13:57:02 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
Things that have a 1-in-10 change of occurring every minute happen 144 times a day, on average.
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Yes but try that manual 50 times and see what you get. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2011 : 14:12:59 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
Yes but try that manual 50 times and see what you get. |
One should get five correct guesses. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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flanagan1000
Banned
413 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2011 : 14:25:23 [Permalink]
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| Sory I mean 500 times. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2011 : 14:34:10 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
Sory I mean 500 times. |
50 correct guesses, then. Should take about eight hours, twenty minutes. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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flanagan1000
Banned
413 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2011 : 14:42:13 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Hal
Originally posted by flanagan1000
Really weird in what he/she is saying, take a look at this post:
So I basically suck at riddles, but I have become obsessed with this... so I recruited some help. I emailed the equation to my sister (the math and science brainiac) and when she emailed me the answer- I almost fell out of my chair! Now it's important to note, that I didn't tell her anything about the equation, where I got it or why I needed it. Here's what she sent me:
"So the left side of the equation means the probability of event A occurring given that b occurs so for example if A was a random day of the year and B is a day in october the probability of A occurring during B is 1/31 since there are 31 days in October.
The right side, top part means basically all the things that both A and B encompass. So instead let's make A days in October (any 31 one of them) and B be days in the year. So A upsidedown U B would be 31 because that is what they have in common. Lastly divide that by B (365).
It seems like a pointless equation, mostly showing how they got the left side I think. I'll take the example of october days (a) and days of the year (b) and work through it. The P always is probability
So the probability of having a day of October randomly picked from all the days of the year is 31/365 (or .0849). equals the days that A and B have in common (31) divided by B (365) which is again .0849.
Maybe in a different context that would make since but it just shows how you get the probability of an event occurring if something else is occurring. Hopefully that made sense."
WOW! I could NOT believe what she used to describe this equation to me! I mean come on- the probability of something occurring in Oct?! Really? WOW!
I LOVE THIS THREAD!
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Well, this excerpt does show me that you're not the only one out there who freaks out over the most utterly inconsequential coincidences.
So, this idiot's sister gives him an example -- and picks October! ZOMGWTF!!! The odds of that are like, 1 in 12! You know what's even freakier? With no prompting, she actually picked the current month to illustrate her example!
Think I'll go cry in the corner over that one.
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You have to read these pages http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1617353/pg38
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1617353/pg39
to get full view of the context of whats going on. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
Posted - 10/24/2011 : 22:07:35 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
Sory I mean 500 times. |
I can't find the sort of binomial distribution calculator I need right now for this problem, but in looking at some standard tables, if you do 100 trials, there's a 95% chance that you'll get between 4 and 15 correct guesses (with 10 being most likely). There's a 1-in-1000 chance of getting 20 or more correct. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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moakley
SFN Regular
USA
1888 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 04:59:46 [Permalink]
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flanagan1000 are you even paying attention to the responses you are getting? It doesn't appear that you are since you persist in your look at this adventure.
Originally posted by Dave W.
Originally posted by flanagan1000
Then what about Peter Moon? |
Sky Books is Peter Moon's own publishing company, so he obviously had tons of money to play with.David Icke was a famous sportscaster made more famous by a 1991 interview that had most of Britain mocking him and journalists pestering his kids because Icke called himself "the Son of God" and he made some outlandish "psychic" predictions. His nuttiest books weren't published until he... you can guess, I'm sure... created his own publishing company. His Reptilians didn't see print until four years later.| ...and the rest, counters your argument doesn't it? |
No. Most authors who need help (an independent publishing company) know what audiences they are writing for, and do so. There are plenty of believers out there waiting to believe in all sorts of weird stuff, it's simply a matter of figuring out what they want to read, and then writing it with a minimal competence. They can do this research at new age and psychic conventions that occur all over the world, all year 'round.
But do try to keep up. The reason "The Internet" is even more bugnuts crazy than the two you mentioned explicitly is what I'm talking about. You were wondering where the bottom of the lunacy is. The Internet has ensured that there is no bottom. People can, for free or for very small investments, publish megabytes of their most paranoid, most schizoid ramblings, chock-full of search engine keywords so that with zero advertising, other whack-jobs can find and read it, feed on it, and publish their own even-more-insane proclamations that mention the same people, places and things. The Internet has ensured that this self-reinforcing cycle can take days or weeks instead of the years it used to require.
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Life is good
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous |
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Fripp
SFN Regular
USA
727 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 06:06:00 [Permalink]
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Hey flanagan, I noticed that you conveniently ignored the whole "stock market crash" crap.
Have you noticed that everything that you bring up confirm one inescapable fact: that you are a complete moron, quivering in fear over the stupidest stuff.
Why do people get their panties in a bunch over the most stupid crap, then they go out and drive in their cars in complete ignorance? |
"What the hell is an Aluminum Falcon?"
"Oh, I'm sorry. I thought my Dark Lord of the Sith could protect a small thermal exhaust port that's only 2-meters wide! That thing wasn't even fully paid off yet! You have any idea what this is going to do to my credit?!?!"
"What? Oh, oh, 'just rebuild it'? Oh, real [bleep]ing original. And who's gonna give me a loan, jackhole? You? You got an ATM on that torso LiteBrite?" |
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flanagan1000
Banned
413 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 10:22:25 [Permalink]
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Someone posted this disturbing message:
| Is there anyone here into Remote Viewing? If so, please CRV - 35.271934; 139.54834; 28/10/11 0830hrs. I'm seeing total devastation. I mean really, really bad. This is NOT a prediction. Please do not treat it as one. I've misinterpreted a viewing many times and I hope this is one of those times |
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread743904/pg804
He then gives more information:
No details. Please don't look up the coordinates. That's not the way it's done. You take the coordinates and time, then roll with it. You don't interpret what you see, you just report. I was looking for a missing person and doing some personal work when this view popped up. I don't usually do interpretation, I leave it to others. This was an intrusion and so I decided to interpret the scene myself. |
| Well, ordinarily when I get anything at all it's just quick flashes, fragments if you will. Rarely do I get a view that leaves no room for guessing, it just is what it is. This was one of those times. Total devastation right out to the horizon. Looked like a giant stomped on the place. There was one very large piece of wreckage the description of which I won't go into. I'll use that as a checksum in case others want to share their view. I could tell TNT what it looks like so that folks will know I'm not pulling a bait and switch. If she is willing, of course. |
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread743904/pg805
Holy shit... |
| Edited by - flanagan1000 on 10/25/2011 10:24:10 |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 10:30:16 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
Someone posted this disturbing message:
| Is there anyone here into Remote Viewing? If so, please CRV - 35.271934; 139.54834; 28/10/11 0830hrs. I'm seeing total devastation. I mean really, really bad. This is NOT a prediction. Please do not treat it as one. I've misinterpreted a viewing many times and I hope this is one of those times |
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread743904/pg804
He then gives more information:
No details. Please don't look up the coordinates. That's not the way it's done. You take the coordinates and time, then roll with it. You don't interpret what you see, you just report. I was looking for a missing person and doing some personal work when this view popped up. I don't usually do interpretation, I leave it to others. This was an intrusion and so I decided to interpret the scene myself. |
| Well, ordinarily when I get anything at all it's just quick flashes, fragments if you will. Rarely do I get a view that leaves no room for guessing, it just is what it is. This was one of those times. Total devastation right out to the horizon. Looked like a giant stomped on the place. There was one very large piece of wreckage the description of which I won't go into. I'll use that as a checksum in case others want to share their view. I could tell TNT what it looks like so that folks will know I'm not pulling a bait and switch. If she is willing, of course. |
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread743904/pg805
Holy shit...
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Don't wait for the translation, Kirk! Answer the question!
Holy shit, my ass. |
Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 10:47:17 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
Someone posted this disturbing message:
| Is there anyone here into Remote Viewing? If so, please CRV - 35.271934; 139.54834; 28/10/11 0830hrs. I'm seeing total devastation. I mean really, really bad. This is NOT a prediction. Please do not treat it as one. I've misinterpreted a viewing many times and I hope this is one of those times |
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Out near the mouth of Tokyo Bay. Who'd a guessed that there might be devastation in an earthquake zone? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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flanagan1000
Banned
413 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 10:50:44 [Permalink]
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| I think he mean destruction on a bigger scale. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
Posted - 10/25/2011 : 10:56:07 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by flanagan1000
I think he mean destruction on a bigger scale. |
You don't think a decent tsunami can flatten everything "out to the horizon?" |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Is a major event going to happen on 28th October?
