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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2012 : 21:14:46 [Permalink]
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| Well, lookie what just floated in. We got us one of them gen-u-wine Maha-ree-shees. Must'a got hisself mighty lost when he turned off the two-lane. He sure do know how to do that cut-and-paste trick, don't he though? How's about we see if this here feller can do some good ol' down-home critical thinkin' for hisself, the way we do things round these parts. Yee-hah! |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 04/17/2012 21:22:03 |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
 Posted - 04/17/2012 : 21:24:46 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by MatterOrganic
Perhaps some of this will shed some light and move the conversation forward. Here are quotes from peer-reviewed independent journal editors and other independent scholars:
“I have been following the research on peace-creating groups as it has developed over the last twenty years. There is now a strong and consistent body of evidence showing that this innovative approach provides a simple and cost-effective solution to many of the social problems we face today. In my view, this research is so strong that it demands action from those responsible for government policy.”#8232;Huw Dixon, Ph.D Professor of Economics, York University, England
“I think this research evidence on a new approach to peace, and the theory that informs it, deserve the most serious consideration by academics, policy makers and concerned citizens alike.”#8232;David Edwards, PhD Professor of Government University of Texas (Austin)
“In the studies that I hae examined, I can find no methodological flaws, and the findings have been consistent across a large number of replications. As unlikely as the premise may sound, I think we have to take these studies seriously.”#8232;Ted Robert Gurr, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Government and Politics University of Maryland
“When you can statistically control for as many variables as these studies do, it makes the results much more convincing.”#8232;Raymond Russ, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, University of Maine Editor, Journal of Mind and Behavior |
Why not just link to TM's Global Peace initiative endorsement page?
ENDORSEMENTS FROM INDEPENDENT SCHOLARS
Research studies investigating an idea like peace-creating groups—a concept that transcends the dominant materialist paradigm of modern science—must run a gauntlet of highly skeptical scholars.#8232;For those unfamiliar with research procedures, the publication of a scientific study implies more than mere printing and distribution. All of the research journals in the above citations are refereed—distinguished experts in the field (referees, or peer reviewers) judge every submitted study. When a theory is new or particularly controversial, referees assess the studies more strictly.
By now peace-creating assemblies have been field-tested in more than 50 demonstration projects, and most of these demonstrations have been covered in 21 independently published peer-reviewed journals.
One of the most convincing aspects of this research is the open, public nature of the evidence. The research on peace-creating groups, is doubly public:#8232;1. The dates and approximate attendance of most peace-creating assemblies are available in contemporaneous newspaper accounts.#8232;2. Statistics on social violence, including crime, accidents, warfare, terrorism, etc., are available to any researcher with access to public records.#8232;This public nature of the evidence means that any given study is replicable by other researchers—a strong safeguard for scientific accuracy.
To be convincing, any study must rule out alternate possible explanations for the results. Since violent crime, for instance, typically increases as daily temperature increases, researchers must account for temperature changes in their analysis. In these studies, researchers have carefully demonstrated that alternate possible explanations—such as weather, regular weekly, monthly or seasonal changes, changes in police patrolling, etc.—cannot account for the evidence.
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Or this page?
Permanent Peace |
Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2012 : 21:45:25 [Permalink]
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MatterOrganic:
Independently published peer-reviewed studies on the TM and TM-Sdihi Programs' effect on increasing positive societal trends and reducing negative social trends at the city, national and international level, in alphabetical order by the last name of the lead researcher |
Yes yes. John Hagelin. Do you have any idea of how many physicists have distanced themselves from that guy? But What the bleep do [I] know?
And Orme-Johnson is all over the place in TM. He's like The Scientist! I'm not going to look all this stuff up. What you can do, MatterOrganic, is start making your own case and knock off the cut and paste jobs. It's okay to link to and cite relevant material, but no one here wants to deal with a cut and paste discussion or debate.
Also, if you actually believe that the studies you have listed are generally accepted, think again. |
Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2012 : 22:08:14 [Permalink]
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| Argumentum ad cutandpastum. The Gish Gallop of text. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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MatterOrganic
New Member
9 Posts |
Posted - 04/18/2012 : 02:06:22 [Permalink]
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Are we redefining the mission of The Skeptic Friends network?
The mission of the Skeptic Friends Network is to promote skepticism, critical thinking, science and logic as the best methods for evaluating all claims of fact, and we invite active participation by our members to create a skeptical community with a wide variety of viewpoints and expertise.
I've cited independently published peer-reviewed studies and quoted independent scholars. Would you rather I retyped the citations and summaries and quotes from independent scholars instead of cut and pasting them? What have either of you contributed to the conversation within the bounds of the mission of the Skeptic Friends Network? Casting aspersions, innuendo and hearsay is not very impressive. What exactly do you want to discuss within the bounds of the "mission". |
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MatterOrganic
New Member
9 Posts |
Posted - 04/18/2012 : 02:07:46 [Permalink]
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| See comment above so I don't have to cut and paste it. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/18/2012 : 04:25:17 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by MatterOrganic
Are we redefining the mission of The Skeptic Friends network? |
How is quoting our own mission statement at us and suggesting that we're not following it not just casting aspersions?| I've cited independently published peer-reviewed studies and quoted independent scholars. |
Indeed, but you haven't commented on those studies (perhaps explaining why their methods are sound and results valid - have you even read them?), nor have you given us reasons to think that economists and political scientists are experts in "peace creating" or yogic flying such that their opinions of TM research should be given much weight. Without that basis, the quotes amount to nothing more than a fallacious argument from authority.| Would you rather I retyped the citations and summaries and quotes from independent scholars instead of cut and pasting them? |
No, as Kil noted, you could have merely provided the URLs of the pages you copied.| What have either of you contributed to the conversation within the bounds of the mission of the Skeptic Friends Network? Casting aspersions, innuendo and hearsay is not very impressive. What exactly do you want to discuss within the bounds of the "mission". |
I see little indication that you want to "discuss" anything, since you haven't answered my questions or addressed my other points, unless your cut-and-paste job was somehow intended to do so. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Hal
Skeptic Friend
USA
302 Posts |
Posted - 04/18/2012 : 05:44:56 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by MatterOrganic
As strange as this first stage of Yogic Flying looks on the outside, something important and very good is going on on the inside. Why do I say this? Because there is maximum brainwave coherence at the moment before the body lifts up. Everything good about the brain increases as the brain wave coherence increases: increased IQ, increased moral reasoning, faster reaction time, etc., etc. This brainwave coherence is not found if someone is not performing the mental technique for Yogic Flying which is part of the TM-Sidhi Program as taught by Maharishi. This maximum coherence in brain waves that is found in individuals practicing Yogic Flying is verified in the following independently published peer-reviewed study:
Travis FT, Orme-Johnson DW. EEG coherence and power during Yogic Flying: investigating the mechanics of the TM-Sidhi program. International Journal of Neuroscience 1990 54(1/2):1-12
another study which shows the coherent brain functioning during Yogic Flying:
Orme-Johnson DW, Gelderloos P. Topographic brain mapping during Yogic Flying. International Journal of Neuroscience 1988 38(3/4):427-434
The International Journal of Neuroscience is an extremely reputable international journal. which has published a total of 17 studies of the over 350 independently published peer-reviewed studies on the TM and TM-Sidhi programs.
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MO, I'm willing to concede that my understanding of "Yogic Flying" may be flawed, and that I may be inferring the wrong sense of the verb "to fly." Based on what little I'd heard in the past, I have assumed that it involves sustained levitation (like a helicopter), rather than simple ballistic movement (like a baseball). If I'm wrong on that point, and the physical manifestation is nothing more than the hopping we observe, then I'll drop the issue, as I have absolutely no interest in any other supposed "internal" effects that might be going on in the subjects.
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| Edited by - Hal on 04/18/2012 06:51:17 |
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MatterOrganic
New Member
9 Posts |
Posted - 04/18/2012 : 19:31:49 [Permalink]
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Dear Dave W.
Your question regarding wanting to see research verifying that brain wave coherence is related to everything good about the brain is a very good one and I am in the process of gathering that research and giving you and all others on this topic as thorough an answer as possible. I was impressed with your question. It is an important question and It is on the topic of Yogic Flying. I stated the importance of the increase in brain coherence before the body lifts up being the mechanism for improved brain functioning as a result of Yogic Flying. Stay tuned.
My previous replies were not directed to you. This one is.
I hope my listing of the citations and some summaries of the studies on group practice of the TM-Sidhi programs influence on peace answered your question about recent research on the phenomena. As you see there are 3 studies that were independently published in the last 10 years on this subject, 2001, 2003, and 2005. It seemed a bit odd that you wrote you weren't aware of any research on the subject in the "last century" which conjures the notion of 100 years. interesting choice of words, then I realized you meant "since the turn of the century," the year 2000. At least one of your questions was answered.
Would you let me know what credentials would impress you regarding independent scholars and the research on the group practice of the TM-Sidhi program? The independent scholars that were quoted are researchers who can appreciate rigorous research and statistical significance of government generated data within the context of a study. They are not familiar with Yogic Flying, they are independent scholars that are interested in data. Not too many experts on "Peace" as it has not been a big area of study unfortunately. I would think that the Journal of Conflict Resolution would be impressive as it is a highly reputable journal.
My previous comments did go into why this research is so impressive. Since you seem to be asking for more information in this regard, I will repeat a few points in a bit of a different way that might be more helpful:
1. The open public nature of the evidence: The dates and approximate attendance of peace-creating assemblies are available in newspaper accounts. Various government agencies, including the CIA, FBI and local police departments, keep very careful statistics on all aspects of crime and violence.
2. Researchers have carefully demonstrated that alternate possible explanations cannot account for the evidence.
3. The statistical significance of the research on the Maharishi Effect is very impressive.
When the Lebanon Study was published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution it ignited a firestorm. It took two years to publish it because they journal's peer-reviewers reviewed it and reviewed it and reviewed it. Until they finally concluded the paper was unassailable. The paper was performed at a standard of scientific rigor far beyond what is required by any journal. This result is so unexpected that the behavior of a 1,000 people could influence the behavior of a million.
Just looking at one aspect of the study conducted in 1983 and finally published 5 years later in 1988 by Yale’s Journal of Conflict Resolution, a coherence creating group caused a 76% reduction in war deaths. The “p value” on this aspect of the study is less than about 1 in 10,000, that’s a “p value” of .0001, and In the world of the social sciences this is shocking, earth shacking.
The top Yale editors for the Journal of Conflict Resolution said, OK we have to publish this because the research is so sound. However, since the implications of the study were enormous and surprising and the hypothesis incredibly unique they asked that other scientific groups repeat the study. The Lebanon War was still raging and over a period of 2 years and 3 months there were a total of 7 repetitions of the experiment including the original, involving large groups of up to 8,000 sidhas. Every one of those studies comparably statistically significant, every one of those studies publishable, every one of the results, earth shaking.
Putting groups of studies together and then finding the “p value” for that group of studies is something scientists all over the world like to do. And this is exactly what was done in a study published in 2005. It calculated the “p value” of these 7 repetitions and found the “p value” to be 10 to the minus 19th power. That’s a decimal point then 18 zeros and then a 1. That’s a p value of 1 in a million trillion.
We can more deeply go into the efficacy of TM on it's own perhaps on a different thread but for now perhaps this will help put the research on TM in perspective. Norman Rosenthal who was a top researcher at the National Institutes of Health for 20 years said if TM was a drug and if that drug had the research that has been independently published on TM showing the benefits that the research on TM shows, that drug would be a billion dollar blockbuster.
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 04/19/2012 : 05:54:43 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by MatterOrganic
Dear Dave W.
Your question regarding wanting to see research verifying that brain wave coherence is related to everything good about the brain is a very good one and I am in the process of gathering that research and giving you and all others on this topic as thorough an answer as possible. I was impressed with your question. It is an important question and It is on the topic of Yogic Flying. I stated the importance of the increase in brain coherence before the body lifts up being the mechanism for improved brain functioning as a result of Yogic Flying. Stay tuned.
My previous replies were not directed to you. This one is.
I hope my listing of the citations and some summaries of the studies on group practice of the TM-Sidhi programs influence on peace answered your question about recent research on the phenomena. As you see there are 3 studies that were independently published in the last 10 years on this subject, 2001, 2003, and 2005. It seemed a bit odd that you wrote you weren't aware of any research on the subject in the "last century" which conjures the notion of 100 years. interesting choice of words, then I realized you meant "since the turn of the century," the year 2000. At least one of your questions was answered.
Would you let me know what credentials would impress you regarding independent scholars and the research on the group practice of the TM-Sidhi program? The independent scholars that were quoted are researchers who can appreciate rigorous research and statistical significance of government generated data within the context of a study. They are not familiar with Yogic Flying, they are independent scholars that are interested in data. Not too many experts on "Peace" as it has not been a big area of study unfortunately. I would think that the Journal of Conflict Resolution would be impressive as it is a highly reputable journal.
My previous comments did go into why this research is so impressive. Since you seem to be asking for more information in this regard, I will repeat a few points in a bit of a different way that might be more helpful:
1. The open public nature of the evidence: The dates and approximate attendance of peace-creating assemblies are available in newspaper accounts. Various government agencies, including the CIA, FBI and local police departments, keep very careful statistics on all aspects of crime and violence.
2. Researchers have carefully demonstrated that alternate possible explanations cannot account for the evidence.
3. The statistical significance of the research on the Maharishi Effect is very impressive.
When the Lebanon Study was published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution it ignited a firestorm. It took two years to publish it because they journal's peer-reviewers reviewed it and reviewed it and reviewed it. Until they finally concluded the paper was unassailable. The paper was performed at a standard of scientific rigor far beyond what is required by any journal. This result is so unexpected that the behavior of a 1,000 people could influence the behavior of a million.
Just looking at one aspect of the study conducted in 1983 and finally published 5 years later in 1988 by Yale’s Journal of Conflict Resolution, a coherence creating group caused a 76% reduction in war deaths. The “p value” on this aspect of the study is less than about 1 in 10,000, that’s a “p value” of .0001, and In the world of the social sciences this is shocking, earth shacking.
The top Yale editors for the Journal of Conflict Resolution said, OK we have to publish this because the research is so sound. However, since the implications of the study were enormous and surprising and the hypothesis incredibly unique they asked that other scientific groups repeat the study. The Lebanon War was still raging and over a period of 2 years and 3 months there were a total of 7 repetitions of the experiment including the original, involving large groups of up to 8,000 sidhas. Every one of those studies comparably statistically significant, every one of those studies publishable, every one of the results, earth shaking.
Putting groups of studies together and then finding the “p value” for that group of studies is something scientists all over the world like to do. And this is exactly what was done in a study published in 2005. It calculated the “p value” of these 7 repetitions and found the “p value” to be 10 to the minus 19th power. That’s a decimal point then 18 zeros and then a 1. That’s a p value of 1 in a million trillion.
We can more deeply go into the efficacy of TM on it's own perhaps on a different thread but for now perhaps this will help put the research on TM in perspective. Norman Rosenthal who was a top researcher at the National Institutes of Health for 20 years said if TM was a drug and if that drug had the research that has been independently published on TM showing the benefits that the research on TM shows, that drug would be a billion dollar blockbuster.
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This crap is so from science you might as well write yourself a Bible.
So it is impossible for violence levels to in Lebanon fluctuate without TM? Why not give credit to the prayers of Lebonese? The sheer stupidity of this claim makes me hope you are all just kidding, but I know you are not, so Im gonna go have a drink to commemorate the death of Reason.
Ill leave it to Dave to use the kid gloves, his pateince is the stuff of Martian Psi-ball Legend.
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"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/19/2012 : 07:23:51 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
Ill leave it to Dave to use the kid gloves, his pateince is the stuff of Martian Psi-ball Legend. |
Ha!  |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/19/2012 : 11:26:50 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by MatterOrganic
Your question regarding wanting to see research verifying that brain wave coherence is related to everything good about the brain is a very good one and I am in the process of gathering that research and giving you and all others on this topic as thorough an answer as possible. I was impressed with your question. It is an important question and It is on the topic of Yogic Flying. I stated the importance of the increase in brain coherence before the body lifts up being the mechanism for improved brain functioning as a result of Yogic Flying. Stay tuned. |
Will do.| My previous replies were not directed to you. |
Yes, but this is a public forum and you were using the mission statement (that I helped to craft) as a rhetorical club in a rather hypocritical manner.| I hope my listing of the citations and some summaries of the studies on group practice of the TM-Sidhi programs influence on peace answered your question about recent research on the phenomena. As you see there are 3 studies that were independently published in the last 10 years on this subject, 2001, 2003, and 2005. It seemed a bit odd that you wrote you weren't aware of any research on the subject in the "last century" which conjures the notion of 100 years. interesting choice of words, then I realized you meant "since the turn of the century," the year 2000. At least one of your questions was answered. |
Yes and no. My question revolved around the PubMed keywords "yogic flying." Is the Maharishi Effect (ME) dependent upon yogic flying (YF) or not? If it is, why aren't articles related to ME also using the YF keywords so that they are more easily found?
I also note that a PubMed search for "Maharishi Effect" (in quotes) results in zero articles, while searching for the first word alone gives 168 results. What keywords provide the most-focused results for the phenomena we're talking about, here?| Would you let me know what credentials would impress you regarding independent scholars and the research on the group practice of the TM-Sidhi program? |
But that's just the point: credentialism is a poor argument, but that's all that those quotes represent, a pure argument from authority.| The independent scholars that were quoted are researchers who can appreciate rigorous research and statistical significance of government generated data within the context of a study. They are not familiar with Yogic Flying, they are independent scholars that are interested in data. Not too many experts on "Peace" as it has not been a big area of study unfortunately. I would think that the Journal of Conflict Resolution would be impressive as it is a highly reputable journal. |
But an economist (for example) shouldn't be expected to understand or appreciate the long history of statistical analysis tradecraft that must be considered when examining what amounts to a sociological experiment. The fields (economy and sociology) are very different (some even arguing that economists aren't even scientists), and so in trying to gain credibility for TM-Sidhi you may as well have quoted a plumber.My previous comments did go into why this research is so impressive. Since you seem to be asking for more information in this regard, I will repeat a few points in a bit of a different way that might be more helpful:
1. The open public nature of the evidence: The dates and approximate attendance of peace-creating assemblies are available in newspaper accounts. Various government agencies, including the CIA, FBI and local police departments, keep very careful statistics on all aspects of crime and violence. |
And nobody is arguing about the raw data, only its analysis and the conclusions drawn from that analysis. For example, Maxwell Rainforth's defense of the exclusion of ten murders in the D.C. study actually suggests that all of the murder data should be ignored. Rainforth characterized murders overall as a small data set, as so extra caution needs to be exercised when drawing conclusions from it.| 2. Researchers have carefully demonstrated that alternate possible explanations cannot account for the evidence. |
No, they haven't. They've carefully demonstrated that certain specific alternative explanations fail, at best. They haven't eliminated all possible (or even plausible) explanations, because there are simply too many of them. Did they control for cloud cover? Sunspots? The phase of the Moon? El Nino? The tides? I could go on all day.
The fact that the researchers couldn't come up with a viable alternate explanation doesn't mean that TM-Sidhi must have been responsible. And given that there is no plausible mechanism through which the ME functions, any plausible alternative (not just the cherry-picked ones) must be considered more likely to be true.3. The statistical significance of the research on the Maharishi Effect is very impressive.
When the Lebanon Study was published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution it ignited a firestorm. It took two years to publish it because they journal's peer-reviewers reviewed it and reviewed it and reviewed it. Until they finally concluded the paper was unassailable. |
But it was assailed. By the argument I just presented above, in fact. And Orme-Johnson, in response, merely repeated the claim that no other explanation has been found.
For those who haven't seen this study, here it is.| The paper was performed at a standard of scientific rigor far beyond what is required by any journal. |
Except for the huge logical hole, above.| This result is so unexpected that the behavior of a 1,000 people could influence the behavior of a million. |
Yes, it is. But is it a real effect?| Just looking at one aspect of the study conducted in 1983 and finally published 5 years later in 1988 by Yale’s Journal of Conflict Resolution, a coherence creating group caused a 76% reduction in war deaths. The “p value” on this aspect of the study is less than about 1 in 10,000, that’s a “p value” of .0001, and In the world of the social sciences this is shocking, earth shacking. |
Is it? If a thing has a random 1-in-10,000 chance of happening to any person each day, then that thing happens to 700,000 people every day, worldwide. And one-in-a-million occurrences would happen 2.5 million times each year (on average).
But the p-value on the 76% figure for the drop in Lebanese War deaths was 0.019 (not 0.0001, see page 795), or 1 chance in 53.
And I think the fact that the Mountain War started a mere two days after the peak of participation of practitioners, and that the fourth quartile only includes three days of that conflict (in other words, at most 20% of the fourth-quartile data is from after a major increase in hostilities), speaks strongly against their claims of good randomization and also against the hypothesis as a whole. The Druze offensive started on September 5, or 57% of the way into the experiment, so one would want each quartile to have 43% of its data - either six or seven days' worth - come after that. But instead, 80%+ of the fourth-quartile data is from a time when Israeli troops were acting as a buffer between two extremely hostile (to each other) groups, and Orme-Johnson et al failed to even mention that, much less try to correct for it.
(Also, the fact that it is shocking and earth-shaking doesn't itself substantiate the hypothesis.)The top Yale editors for the Journal of Conflict Resolution said, OK we have to publish this because the research is so sound. However, since the implications of the study were enormous and surprising and the hypothesis incredibly unique they asked that other scientific groups repeat the study. The Lebanon War was still raging and over a period of 2 years and 3 months there were a total of 7 repetitions of the experiment including the original, involving large groups of up to 8,000 sidhas. Every one of those studies comparably statistically significant, every one of those studies publishable, every one of the results, earth shaking.
Putting groups of studies together and then finding the “p value” for that group of studies is something scientists all over the world like to do. |
And meta-analysis is notoriously fraught with methodological traps.| And this is exactly what was done in a study published in 2005. It calculated the “p value” of these 7 repetitions and found the “p value” to be 10 to the minus 19th power. That’s a decimal point then 18 zeros and then a 1. That’s a p value of 1 in a million trillion. |
But Guy Hatchard claimed in the report of the 1996 Merseyside study that it was that 41st replication. Why, in a meta-analysis done nine years later were only seven studies used? More cherry-picking?| We can more deeply go into the efficacy of TM on it's own perhaps on a different thread but for now perhaps this will help put the research on TM in perspective. |
Perhaps, perhaps not. I mean, the Invincible America Assembly seems to be a total failure, despite the press releases to the contrary. If we're going to examine the context, then let's examine the whole thing. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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MatterOrganic
New Member
9 Posts |
Posted - 04/19/2012 : 13:08:57 [Permalink]
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Dear Dave W.
I want to thank you. This conversation with you is the best discussion I have been able to have on this subject on the internet in the last 2 and 1/2 years!
Stay tuned I will be getting back to you on your points.
It's good to know that you helped craft the mission of the Skeptic Friends Network. If you read all the comments on this topic I would think there would be many that would qualify as a "cudgel" of sorts. For some reason only my comment invoking the mission statement elicited a reaction from you, but all the other comments did not. Would you shed some light for me as to why that might be?
I'm looking forward to our ongoing and hopefully mutually beneficial conversation! |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/19/2012 : 18:19:43 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by MatterOrganic
It's good to know that you helped craft the mission of the Skeptic Friends Network. If you read all the comments on this topic I would think there would be many that would qualify as a "cudgel" of sorts. For some reason only my comment invoking the mission statement elicited a reaction from you, but all the other comments did not. Would you shed some light for me as to why that might be? |
Several reasons, but primarily because the others weren't complaining that you weren't following the mission statement. You did, while appearing to neglect my questions.
Second, check the Staff Page. We've seen bunch of copy-and-paste responses here over the years, they don't generally lead to serious discussion of anything, so given that history, there's little reason to take seriously people who do what you did. Demonstrating the ability to buck those odds is a good thing. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/23/2012 : 14:27:15 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by me
But the p-value on the 76% figure for the drop in Lebanese War deaths was 0.019 (not 0.0001, see page 795), or 1 chance in 53.
And I think the fact that the Mountain War started a mere two days after the peak of participation of practitioners, and that the fourth quartile only includes three days of that conflict (in other words, at most 20% of the fourth-quartile data is from after a major increase in hostilities), speaks strongly against their claims of good randomization and also against the hypothesis as a whole. The Druze offensive started on September 5, or 57% of the way into the experiment, so one would want each quartile to have 43% of its data - either six or seven days' worth - come after that. But instead, 80%+ of the fourth-quartile data is from a time when Israeli troops were acting as a buffer between two extremely hostile (to each other) groups, and Orme-Johnson et al failed to even mention that, much less try to correct for it. |
To expand on the above point, if the days of the experiment were assigned to the "quartiles" by rolling four-sided dice, we would expect to see 15 or 16 fours in each roll of 61 dice about 23% of the time. That seems to be the authors' argument for why the quartiles are, indeed, randomly assigned. A p-value of 0.23 could be adequately explained by chance, which is what they wanted.
But for the sampling to be random, the same odds should hold for any sub-sample for which there was no experimental change (so long as we don't go to extremes and, for example, consider each individual day to be a sub-sample). If the start of the Mountain War is a good place to examine two sub-sets, then there was only a 4.6% chance of seeing 13 fours among the first 36 "dice" rolls (August 1st through September 5th), and only a 6.4% chance of seeing only three fours among the last 25 rolls (September 6th through 30th). If my math is correct, the p-value for that happening is a mere 0.00295, or one chance in 339.
Puts the p=0.019 to shame, doesn't it?
Really, what happened was this:The level of participation was experimentally elevated from August 15 to August 27 by also offering an advanced MTUF course as an additional incentive to participate during this time. They knew the quartiles weren't randomly distributed across the time-span of the experiment, because they purposefully skewed them. They probably couldn't have known about Israel's pull-out a week after their "incentive" ended, but given their choice of measures of success, they needed to at least discuss this stuff and explain (if possible) how it shouldn't count against their conclusions. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Yogic flying
