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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
 Posted - 04/06/2012 : 01:41:13 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
assuming someone is dead wrong is not proving someone is dead wrong. Try again. And Dave, who decided this was the null hypothesis? Seems like you'd only assume that if you were the leader of some kind of group of hypocrites with a liberal bias...oh wait... |
"Liberal bias"? Hardly. It's "evidence bias" of which we are guilty. Dave was right, you know. "Null hypothesis" is stating the case as kindly as possible.
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." That's how critical thinkers roll.| SURE lets all go back to making baseless claims like "all flavors of people come in all flavors" with the same complete lack of evidence or research because it's a conveniently politically correct null hypothesis. |
You made an unevidenced and racially charged suggestion that that Asian-Americans are more prone to "going postal" in schools than other groups. You refuse to even attempt to provide any evidence at all for this claim. Why should anyone in their right mind even consider your suggestion for a moment?
Will you or won't you now try to find evidence? Evidence, essentially, that "going postal in schools" is somehow unrelated to the low incidence of violent behavior among Asian-Americans. Without evidence that "going postal in schools" is somehow a special behavioral case for this group, I consider the matter not only closed, but never opened.
Or do you stand by your racial comment on the basis of faith, rather than evidence? If so, this isn't the right forum for such thinking, because among skeptics, that's seen as talking from the wrong end. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 01:50:03 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Machi4velli
I don't see what's extraordinary about the claim, I think Asians probably are overrepresented in multiple-kill sprees on educational institutions (with respect to their proportion of the US population) in the US in the last 5 years. If we know of 3 Asians who have done this in the past 5 years in the US (I don't know who the third one is, I only remember this man and the one at Virginia Tech, but someone said 3), and asians make up 5% of the US population, there would need to have been 60 such sprees in the past 5 years for Asians to not be overrepresented in this -- I think the number is probably much lower, and, therefore, I conjecture Asians are significantly higher than the average.
However, we are also dealing with a sample size of, say, 10-25 events, so the overrepresentation is not particularly indicative to me of any further conclusions.
And, OFFC, you can't make up a hypothesis and have it automatically on equal footing as a baseline of no such phenomenon. The null hypothesis should always be that there is no non-uniform trend. Say we are rolling dice and we want to know if they're fair dice. Of course we would not make a null hypothesis that fives come up too often. Our null would be that it's fair, and we'd want to go from there to try to prove the dice aren't fair. Your logic would encourage just the opposite, which is both arbitrary and less practical -- because testing against a lack of trends will reveal any potential trend with one test: maybe fives come up just fine, but it's still unfair (or in your case, maybe Asians are proportional but Hispanics are overrepresented or Catholics are underrepresented or what have you).
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Now providing evidence is your burden, too. Even if your claim that "Asian-Americans going postal in schools" weren't an extraordinary claim, it would still require at least ordinary evidence. Math-crunching of your recollections in your head just doesn't cut it as evidence. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular
Norway
1273 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 01:58:08 [Permalink]
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| It's interesting that people are so happy to sit back and say "prove it" when we all have the same resources available, (perhaps concerning time and bandwidth, I'm guessing some have a lot more than others), it's almost as if you have no basic human curiosity of your own, are you really happy to stubbornly remain ignorant just because you weren't the one who brought the matter up to begin with? |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 02:21:34 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
It's interesting that people are so happy to sit back and say "prove it" when we all have the same resources available, (perhaps concerning time and bandwidth, I'm guessing some have a lot more than others), it's almost as if you have no basic human curiosity of your own, are you really happy to stubbornly remain ignorant just because you weren't the one who brought the matter up to begin with?
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Anything but provide evidence, huh?
You bet I'll sit back now, even though I already did some of your research. Until you show evidence, even a little, I'm just ignoring your position. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular
Norway
1273 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 02:36:12 [Permalink]
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| Yes lets both continue not to challenge our pre-existing opinions. As long as we're clear that we're both doing it. |
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Machi4velli
SFN Regular
USA
854 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 02:39:58 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by HalfMooner
Now providing evidence is your burden, too. Even if your claim that "Asian-Americans going postal in schools" weren't an extraordinary claim, it would still require at least ordinary evidence. Math-crunching of your recollections in your head just doesn't cut it as evidence.
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I thought 60 shooting sprees on college campuses in the last 5 years would be rather memorable... We know of 2 Asians doing this, so let's go with that -- we need 40 cases in 5 years for Asians to not be overrepresented (and the other 38 must not be done by Asian-Americans).
Here's a page from US Department of Education (http://www2.ed.gov/admins/lead/safety/campus.html):
This PDF located on that page has the number of murders occurring on college campuses
http://www2.ed.gov/admins/lead/safety/criminal2007-09.pdf
Murders occurring on campus (including residence halls)
2007: 45
2008: 13
2009: 17
So in just those 3 years, we have 75 murders total on college campuses.
Let's assume we have 75/3 = 25 murders per year, and go with 125 for 5 years. Yes, this isn't a warranted assumption, but an astounding 32 people in 07 were from the Virginia Tech shooting, so this can really only hurt my case since we have 42 murders between these two shooters, leaving 83 murders for other shooters.
Suppose all of these murders were people "going postal" and going on a shooting spree (they certainly were not, but this assumption weakens my case only). I will say 3 deaths constitutes a spree, unless someone disagrees (though we have known them to be much larger, but a larger number hurts my case). Therefore, we could have at most 83/3 = 27.7 sprees beyond these two, even with the assumptions that hurt my case, 2 out of 30 is about 6.7%, beating the Asian American population -- 5.6% including multiracial persons who claimed Asian in the 2010 US Census. (And note that the US definition of Asia includes the Indian subcontinent, Far East, and Southeast Asia, so it covers a bit more territory than East Asia).
So, some possible problems with this measurement (that could change the conclusion if changed): (a) I defined a shooting spree is 3+ kills, (b) we averaged the kills per year over 07, 08, 09 -- and projected the same rate in 10, 11 for a 5 year total (the VT shootings were in April, so shifting the dates forward 4 months shouldn't hurt).
Overall results:
1) We assumed all college campus murders were parts of a 3-kill spree, which definitely reduced the final number we came up with (I would suspect single murders occur more often than sprees, but we didn't even take a conservative estimate of that, and the potential for larger death counts is possible).
2) We used a larger population than intended (at least I typically think of the Indian subcontinent as separate)
3) We assumed Asian Americans were involved in 2, and only 2, events (we know there were 2, but don't know further).
4) Americans of Asian descent who went on shooting sprees on college campuses were still overrepresented in the data
5) It still doesn't mean you can make a causal argument between Asian descent and going postal on a college campus, which I fear was OFFC's intent, because it's too rare of an event,.
http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-02.pdf (US Census definition of Asia)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Asian_Americans#Census_population_counts_and_estimates (5.6%) |
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people."
-Giordano Bruno
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge."
-Stephen Hawking
"Seeking what is true is not seeking what is desirable"
-Albert Camus |
| Edited by - Machi4velli on 04/06/2012 02:59:38 |
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular
Norway
1273 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 02:43:00 [Permalink]
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| Right so compare that to the level of regular violent crime in the east asian population (which is below average) and it's way up right? They don't like schools. I said it from the beginning. |
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| Edited by - On fire for Christ on 04/06/2012 02:43:46 |
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Machi4velli
SFN Regular
USA
854 Posts |
 Posted - 04/06/2012 : 02:45:19 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
Right so compare that to the level of regular violent crime in the east asian population (which is below average) and it's way up right? They don't like schools. I said it from the beginning.
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I'll refer you to point (5). |
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people."
-Giordano Bruno
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge."
-Stephen Hawking
"Seeking what is true is not seeking what is desirable"
-Albert Camus |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 05:02:29 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
Yes lets both continue not to challenge our pre-existing opinions. As long as we're clear that we're both doing it. |
No, you're refusing to challenge your pre-existing opinion. We expect you to do your own homework to support your claim, and we'd be happy to look at your data and methods.
Since people can make up any damn thing they like, do you really have an expectation that other people need to prove them wrong? If so, then prove me wrong when I say that Jesus Christ ate human babies every day.
Mach: why limit it to five years, or even three? Why not use Wikipedia's list of school shootings, instead of trying to guesstimate the number of "sprees" from the total number of victims? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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On fire for Christ
SFN Regular
Norway
1273 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 05:13:13 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
No, you're refusing to challenge your pre-existing opinion.
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Yes apparently only claims which differ from Dave's personal opinion get hounded for proof around here. Otherwise it's a "null hypothesis". I'm starting to understand how the burden of proof works on this forum. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 06:20:04 [Permalink]
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Thanks, Mach for the info. I will be looking into it. I also think Dave W. has a good idea. Let's get to the bottom of this if we can, wherever the facts lead.
OFfC, first, shame on you for not researching the facts regarding your assertion. That sounds like laziness to me, combined with contempt for finding the truth, and a smug arrogance that your personal prejudices trump reality.
Second, dumping on Dave and the whole of SFN is an ad hominem, a strawman and a red herring that is especially telling in conjunction with your failure to back up your claim with a single fact. No, as Mach understands, and you refuse to get, sifting evidence is how we try to settle disputes here.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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sailingsoul
SFN Addict
2830 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 07:45:25 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
Yes lets both continue not to challenge our pre-existing opinions. As long as we're clear that we're both doing it.
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(bolding mine)
First, "Yes lets both continue" others provided research, you haven't. There is no "both" in what you described.
Second, "we're clear that we're both doing it" nooo, it's clear your not supporting your claims and others have disproved yours, with data. That is clear.
Your delusional but that's not really news here. You give that as your reply to Mooner who provided you with support of his opinion while still providing none of your own?? I'm happy that I didn't bother to support my opinion and kept it as that by saying so. Based on it's obviously, as I suspected, a waste of time trying to address any comment of yours posted here with even the slightest effort for support because you seem to be either unwilling and unable to reciprocate in kind. That makes you a troll, some of the time, like now. That is not just my opinion unsupported but is based on the evidence in this thread. You appear to have the same handicap as Curt Cameron. Your maintaining your beliefs are based on the requirement that you avoid the use of intellect. It is the use of intellect that brings mankind out from the darkness of irrationality and superstition. At least for those that choose to use it. |
There are only two types of religious people, the deceivers and the deceived. SS |
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Machi4velli
SFN Regular
USA
854 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 12:16:01 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
Mach: why limit it to five years, or even three? Why not use Wikipedia's list of school shootings, instead of trying to guesstimate the number of "sprees" from the total number of victims?
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Well, going too far back can obscure a more recent trend, but I see what youre getting at -- it catches the two Asian American sprees at about exactly the two extremes of the time window -- I don't think the length of time is a problem (as cutting it off wherever will be arbitrary), but this window in particular conveniently increases Asian American involvement. And I didn't know about the wiki page.
And in the end it's not worth a lot of research because we're dealing with very few incidents and any causal links are extremely speculative regardless.
But, for the number of sprees, if I make assumptions about unknowns that can only hurt my case and still get an over representation, getting more accurate information can only make the representation even higher than expected. |
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people."
-Giordano Bruno
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge."
-Stephen Hawking
"Seeking what is true is not seeking what is desirable"
-Albert Camus |
| Edited by - Machi4velli on 04/06/2012 13:06:04 |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2012 : 14:34:37 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by On fire for Christ
Yes apparently only claims which differ from Dave's personal opinion get hounded for proof around here. Otherwise it's a "null hypothesis". I'm starting to understand how the burden of proof works on this forum. |
No, as has been explained to you already, the null hypothesis is what we should see if there is no phenomenon to be explained. You're the one arguing that an observable phenomenon exists. I'm asking you to present the data supporting it, not making a counter-claim that it doesn't exist. Or can't you tell the difference? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Ex-student kills 7 at small Creationist college
