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moakley
SFN Regular
USA
1888 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 10:54:18 [Permalink]
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| Looks like there are increasing temperature concerns elsewhere. Holy crap, where will it end? |
Life is good
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous |
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 10:56:04 [Permalink]
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quote:
I wonder why the scientific models did not figure this into the equation when they were constructing their predictions for the 06 season? One little bit of information left out and the model was off. Just think of all the other pieces of missing information on the climate out there that we don't even know about that go missing from the CAD model and it's predictions.
Yea, what if there is some information out there that makes those models look like pansies and will speed up GW 5x as fast and 5x as catastrophic. Good point Bill. You still have failed to answer the question you said you would. Why are you focused on the small possibility of error, but not addressing the likely outcome or the other extreme, that we are doomed beyond our own understanding. The latter no one here believes, but it has the same evidence as your position, and natural climate disasters have happened before that wiped out tons of species (most that were present at the time).
quote:
Even with these numbers the 2006 predictions were off. And in fact if you look at the 2005 predictions they predicted a slower season then the 2004 season. In reality we had 28 storms and a record year in 2005. So in 2005 they predict a slower season and we have a record year. In 2006 they predict and more active year and we have one of the calmest in recent memory. My point being human CAD models and their calculated predictions using all the lasted scientific means and data can still be wrong. And in some cases a lot wrong.
The weather channel said it would rain yesterday, it didn't so don't trust the weather channel. Whatever they say, go with the opposite.
It is amazing how you cite the evidence of major consequences (as in major hurricane seasons) as evidence that the scientist cannot predict the exact weather. The scientist say the planet is warmer, and it is. BUT since it is not as warm as the models predicted, it isn't. That is moronic.
quote:
But it does suggest that most of the time we don't even have all the data in hand when the prediction or conclusion is made. Case in point the surprise dust storms. How many other unknown factors are left missing in all of these predictions and human constructed models? I purpose a lot.
They can study it all they want. They still can't predict what it's going to do and they have proven that fact.
Meaning? Of course the weather is unpredictable. Trends in weather are another issue. The models are not designed to predict your local weather for the next ten years, only to predict average temperature rises over time and the expected consequences in the overall weather, not accounting for anything left out of the model.
Yet again Bill, you are relying fully on what we do not know rather than what we do. Once again you choose to believe what makes you feel better than what is evidenced. You certainly don't go with chance that scientist are wrong about cell phones and cancer. Do you use a cell phone Bill? What about a computer, maybe it will give you cancer. |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
- Homer Simpson
[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
| Edited by - Neurosis on 02/23/2007 10:58:32 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
 Posted - 02/23/2007 : 13:12:22 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by pleco
Maybe they are wrong about the 10%, perhaps it is closer to 1%...
Or closer to 50%... |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 13:42:31 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
Or closer to 50%...
Why, is that the percentage you would feel comfortable with, bill? That way both sides are equally reasonable?
Unfortunately, that's not how things work. If scientists are 90% certain, then any reasonable person should also be 90% certain unless they possess new information. A MMGW skeptic or a MMGW denier is not someone who is 90% certain that it's happening, therefore MMGW deniers are not reasonable people.
Just because there's 10% doubt doesn't mean you can treat it as if there's 50% doubt, at least not without being regarded as irrational.
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
| Edited by - H. Humbert on 02/23/2007 13:48:34 |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 15:56:54 [Permalink]
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BTW, I love this odd complaint:
quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
quote:
Originally posted by Cuneiformist
And besides, weather isn't the same thing as climate. A warming climte can suggest more intense weather, but if the weather isn't as intense as predicted, other factors of climate which weren't otherwise taken into account (e.g. dust storms off the coast of Africa) may be the cause.
Why were the dust storms not figured into the equation to begin with?
I KNOW! Like, why didn't that one loser think to look at his bread mold in the first place? Obviously those jackasses at NOAA don't know anythign if they didn't think to study dust storms from the Sahara! Sheesh. Maybe there is no global warming after all!
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 16:42:04 [Permalink]
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Hey Bill. Honest now. Do you really believe that we shouldn't take the 90% figure seriously and start doing something about it or are you just arguing for the sake of an argument?
I mean, you are so out gunned it's ridiculous. And even most conservatives have changed their view on MMGW based largely on the latest reports. Does your objection of science in the case of global warming have religious underpinnings, like your creationist views have? What the hell gives?
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Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 21:55:11 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Bill scott
quote:
Originally posted by pleco
Maybe they are wrong about the 10%, perhaps it is closer to 1%...
Or closer to 50%...
Yea maybe it is a coin flip. Heads we are dead, tails we are slightly uncomfortable. Maybe a better idea would be to stack the odds in our favor. Would you bet your life savings on a fifty-fifty, or would you look for a better investment. Why in the world are you shooting for a fifty-fifty? Those are not good odds! I realize you are not going to ever answer that question because at this point you will just continue to look more and more foolish, so long as you don't have to admit how foolish you are being. |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
- Homer Simpson
[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
| Edited by - Neurosis on 02/23/2007 21:55:54 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/23/2007 : 23:22:03 [Permalink]
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10 pages of aruing with Bill.... that is pretty damn funny.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9688 Posts |
Posted - 02/24/2007 : 06:10:46 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dude
10 pages of aruing with Bill.... that is pretty damn funny.
Indeed.
Already at the first page, Bill was asked if we could afford to take the chance that Man Made Global Warming was not a fact.
The link and pic Filthy posted paints a picture that should be cause for concern.
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/24/2007 : 21:30:02 [Permalink]
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The IPCC full report won't be available until May.
The summary doesn't deal with some of the other major issues on climate change, like the positive feedback of melting permafrost (releasing billions of tons of CO2 as it melts) and ocean temps increasing and releasing methane frozen at depth.
The full report will paint an even more grim picture than the summary with its conclusion that humans are responsible for the current warming.
Anyway... please continue arguing with Bill. It is funny to watch people bashing their heads into a brick wall over and over again.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 02/24/2007 : 21:40:28 [Permalink]
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I have a feeling Bill has already done his famous vanishing act again, anyway. After a while of people asking him the hard questions over and over again, I think he runs out of ways he can dodge answering them, and so just has to flee. We've seen this again and again from him in various threads.
Come to think of it, that's what verlch and Doomar did a lot, too. Perhaps that's just a part of the standard creationist modus operandi. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/25/2007 : 12:08:28 [Permalink]
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Dave_W said:
quote:
Come to think of it, that's what verlch and Doomar did a lot, too. Perhaps that's just a part of the standard creationist modus operandi.
Maybe there is a limit to the total ammount of congitave dissonance they can tolerate at any one time?
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 02/25/2007 : 12:17:52 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.
I have a feeling Bill has already done his famous vanishing act again, anyway. After a while of people asking him the hard questions over and over again, I think he runs out of ways he can dodge answering them, and so just has to flee. We've seen this again and again from him in various threads.
Come to think of it, that's what verlch and Doomar did a lot, too. Perhaps that's just a part of the standard creationist modus operandi.
Well, what do you expect? It is the basic function of their mind that allows them to hold such irrational views. Their brain naturally decides to ignore the contradicting evidence and chooses not to address the natural questions that should be answered by their hypothesis. Instead of the if then statement reading:
If this, then why this. It is rewritten to so that the 'this' is a non-following but comforting idea. ie "If global warming exists, then we must change our wasteful ways. If global warming doesn't, we are fine. Thus it doesn't" or "If Jesus did not fulfill the sacrifice, then we are not saved (Paul's argument). If he did, we are. Thus he did." |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
- Homer Simpson
[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
| Edited by - Neurosis on 02/25/2007 12:18:56 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 03/13/2007 : 15:44:06 [Permalink]
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Whilst on my way to church, I happened across this and I'd like to share it with you: quote:
Falwell Says Global Warming Tool of Satan
Bob Allen
03-01-07
Moral Majority founder Jerry Falwell, who has worked for decades to involve conservative Christians in politics, said Sunday the debate over global warming is a tool of Satan being used to distract churches from their primary focus of preaching the gospel.
"If I decide here as the pastor and our deacons decide that we're going to get caught up in the global warming thing, we're not going to be able to reach the masses of souls for Christ, because our attention will be elsewhere, " Falwell said in Sunday's sermon at Thomas Road Baptist Church in Lynchburg, Va. "That's pretty wise for Satan to concoct."
What a comfort it is that great theological minds like Falwell's are examining the question. We can all sleep more securely, now that he has tracked down the culpret responsible all these scientific lies.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2007 : 15:53:30 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by filthy
"If I decide here as the pastor and our deacons decide that we're going to get caught up in the global warming thing, we're not going to be able to reach the masses of souls for Christ, because our attention will be elsewhere, " Falwell said.
Right, because it's less important to save lives than it is to ensure they're right with Jesus when they die.
Seriously, try using this "logic" on any other topic.
"I decided that we're not going to get caught up in the whole poverty thing, because our attention will be elsewhere. If we spend all our money and time feeding and clothing the sick, who'll pay for the bibles?"
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
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Global Warming: The Cold, Hard Facts?
