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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
 Posted - 07/20/2007 : 23:39:35
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Ivy League Professor Bets Al Gore $10,000 He's Wrong About Global Warming
Armstrong has challenged the former vice president to a 10-year bet, in which $10,000 from the two would be set aside in escrow as Gore pits his forecast of how much global temperature will increase during that time against a so-called "naive model," in which temperature would be expected to stay the same."
Will Gore take the bet?
I bet not!
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 07/21/2007 : 12:57:43 [Permalink]
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| Gore already declined, two weeks ago. |
Good for Al. Even if I were a gambling man, I wouldn't take a stupid bet like that one. It might be a couple decades or a century before I'd collect my winnings (and ship them off to a charity as per the wager).
Evidently, this Armstrong fellow is an expert in long-range forecasting, and that's nice, but prognosticating the weather has little if anything to do with global climate change, so he's talking out his ass.
I have long been amused by people using: "I'll betcha...." in an argument as if making a wager lends support for their side of it.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Boron10
Religion Moderator
USA
1266 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 13:28:11 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
Evidently, this Armstrong fellow is an expert in long-range forecasting, and that's nice, but prognosticating the weather has little if anything to do with global climate change, so he's talking out his ass. |
I dunno, filthy, I would say that "long-range forecasting" is exactly the type of discipline to study global climate change. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 15:30:11 [Permalink]
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This expert at long-range forecasting is a professor of Marketing. He's not forecasting the weather, but more economics.
His primary beef seems to be that the climate-change models break accepted rules of forecasting in general, and so guessing there will be no change to global temperatures will be as accurate as the predictions reported by the IPCC.
I'm sure that somewhere, he's gone into detail about what's wrong with the 18 models cited by the IPCC. But making this bet against a politician is nothing more than a PR campaign which doesn't actually help to fix the problems, which - if they exist - weren't Gore's to begin with. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 15:49:36 [Permalink]
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Marketing forecasts, eh?  That's what happens when you get a little too lazy to research deeper into some of Jerome's references.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 16:13:33 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
Marketing forecasts, eh? That's what happens when you get a little too lazy to research deeper into some of Jerome's references.
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You find out that co2 increases follow warming, not the reverse if you follow my research.
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 16:33:24 [Permalink]
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Well, the guy's a member of the Internation Institute of Forecasters, who do actually have the word "climate" stuck in there amongst "finance," "statistics," "business operations," "economics," "information systems," "marketing," "energy" and "public administration" on their website. Don't know what Armstrong's specialty is, but his complaint appears to be in the broadest terms possible, anyway: the climate models don't follow the norms of forecasting.
Of course, there's an argument to be made that if his own forecasting models were good, then he and his cohorts should be bazillionaires. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 16:36:13 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
You find out that co2 increases follow warming, not the reverse if you follow my research. |
What research have you done that shows that CO2 increases cannot precede warming? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 17:06:21 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
You find out that co2 increases follow warming, not the reverse if you follow my research. |
What research have you done that shows that CO2 increases cannot precede warming?
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The data shows co2 increases follow warming.
We can only speculate what the future is going to be based on the past data and our knowledge of climates.
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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moakley
SFN Regular
USA
1888 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 17:14:29 [Permalink]
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Form a conclusion
Make a wager
Certainly simplifies the science. |
Life is good
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous |
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 17:21:45 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by moakley
Form a conclusion
Make a wager
Certainly simplifies the science.
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Form a goal
Make the science
Certainly simplifies politics
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 17:34:48 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
The data shows co2 increases follow warming. |
And other data shows that man is spewing out more CO2 than is accountable for by natural causes, and still other data show that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Your historical data does not include non-natural causes of warming, and so you are purposefully hampering your own ability to be fully informed by insisting that you should take such data and draw conclusions from it alone.| We can only speculate what the future is going to be based on the past data and our knowledge of climates. |
And the most-optimistic current speculation still has the global climate warming and causing problems for humans, even though one marketing expert says the models are wrong. None of the current models predict temperatures remaining the same or going down. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 17:35:58 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
Form a goal
Make the science
Certainly simplifies politics |
No evidence.
Talk out butt.
Certainly simplifies agitating on an Internet forum. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 17:37:54 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
Originally posted by filthy
Marketing forecasts, eh? That's what happens when you get a little too lazy to research deeper into some of Jerome's references.
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You find out that co2 increases follow warming, not the reverse if you follow my research.
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http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/global_warming/03.html
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 07/21/2007 : 18:14:58 [Permalink]
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The data presented show that the current high is within the average fluctuation in the last 100 years.
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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The Global Warming Challenge
