|
|
|
bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 11:56:16 [Permalink]
|
Geemack.....
I accept all of your commentary concerning my physiology, character and cranial configuration.
Do you have any comment on Dr. Haisch's Introductory Letter? |
 |
|
|
Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
 Posted - 09/03/2007 : 12:08:02 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by bngbuck
Cuneiformist.....
Thanks for your substantive response concerning Dr. Haisch's letter. Others have commented on his statement that "our best modern physics and astrophysics theories arguably predict that we should be experiencing extraterrestrial visitation." I will ask him to expand on that topic.
I asked Dave if he felt that Haisch needed to provide documentation of UFO incidents in order for him (Dave) to consider Haisch's views credible. Dave basically responded "yes". I infer from your post that you pretty much feel the same way. However, you state that you need to do more research. Would you like me to ask Haisch to detail the specific incidents he refers to in his assessment? I suspect, from my own experience, that it may involve considerable printed material in addition to that found on the Internet. He is a very busy man, yet his UFO avocation seems to be high on his interest chart and he is quite accessible. |
I'm not so much interested in documentation of UFO incidents. I know they exist and some are more credible than others. What I am more interested in is the question of how likely is it that we should, by now, have come in contact with alien life. I read the paper by Olum which nicely laid out some of the problems.
Having said that, I guess there is some hesitance to accept the UFO phenomenon-- taking UFO to mean "alien"-- based on the sorts of reports one hears on the news and on the internet. Though perhaps that's just my own bias! |
|
|
|
moakley
SFN Regular
USA
1888 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 12:49:23 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
I enjoyed this statement very much:
| I propose that true skepticism is called for today: neither the gullible acceptance of true belief nor the closed-minded rejection of the scoffer masquerading as the skeptic. One should be skeptical of both the believers and the scoffers. The negative claims of pseudo-skeptics who offer facile explanations must themselves be subject to criticism. |
I think this thought is laking in the skeptic community today.
Are there ETs?
Do "we" posses ET technology?
I have no evidence outside of circumstantial and speculation. Science does predict that there must be ETs somewhere out there, as such these contentions are plausible.
|
Out there Yes, but are they routinely visting Earth, probably not. In that same paragraph Jerome he goes on to say.
Any scientist who has not read a few serious books and articles presenting actual UFO evidence should out of intellectual honesty refrain from making scientific pronouncements. To look at the evidence and go away unconvinced is one thing. To not look at the evidence and be convinced against it nonetheless is another. That is not science. Do your homework!
|
I know that the web site claims to be a work in progress, but what evidence is he talking about. It seems to me to be an attempt to silence critics. "Do your homework" is an admonishment given to children. As a scientist he should know the how limited their time is and should consider that the evidence may not be worthy of their time. |
Life is good
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 12:49:46 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by bngbuck
Thanks for your substantive response concerning Dr. Haisch's letter. Others have commented on his statement that "our best modern physics and astrophysics theories arguably predict that we should be experiencing extraterrestrial visitation." I will ask him to expand on that topic. |
He already has expanded upon it, in his piece titled "Fermi's Paradox and the Preparation for Contact Hypothesis." That piece neglects other resolutions to the paradox. Specifically, it (and apparently Fermi, judging by Haisch's appraisal) fails to address the fact that in any galaxy, some civilization must be first to travel between the stars. Perhaps we will be it for ours.
Perhaps that is what Haisch meant by his suggestion of a highly improbable situation, but any calculation of probability of this sort will require a large sampling of interstellar societies in order to say how much time typically passes between the formation of a galaxy and its first spacefarers. We - to date - have a sample size of precisely zero, and so any attempt to discern how likely or unlikely it is that we will be, indeed, first to go from our Sun to another requires mathematical operations whose result is undefined.| I asked Dave if he felt that Haisch needed to provide documentation of UFO incidents in order for him (Dave) to consider Haisch's views credible. Dave basically responded "yes". I infer from your post that you pretty much feel the same way. However, you state that you need to do more research. Would you like me to ask Haisch to detail the specific incidents he refers to in his assessment? I suspect, from my own experience, that it may involve considerable printed material in addition to that found on the Internet. He is a very busy man, yet his UFO avocation seems to be high on his interest chart and he is quite accessible. |
Haisch has already done so, as Jerome tried to show, here, here, here, here and here. However, through Haisch, we are getting things third-hand at best. Consider the first article, which itself cites only secondary sources. To accurately review Haisch's retelling, it seems that not only would reading the secondary sources be necessary, but so would a few FOIA requests and possibly interviews to get as close to primary material as would be possible at this late date. Tertiary sources are clearly not reliable, as the most-cursory examination shows:Meanwhile, the helicopter's magnetic compass had been spinning at a rate of four revolutions per minute.
- Dr. Haisch Compare the above with this:After the object had broken off its hovering relationship, Jezzi and Coyne noted that the magnetic compass disk was rotating approximately four times per minute...
- Jennie Zeidman Haisch's description leads one to believe that someone had been monitoring the compass the whole time, while Zeidman's is much more believable on that particular point. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 09/03/2007 : 13:11:26 [Permalink]
|
I dunno. Let's look at the logistics of the question. Distance in space is measured, correct me if I'm wrong, in light-years, meaning that it's the distance light that travels in a year. That's one hell of a long way, by our standards. It has also been noted that the speed of light cannot be exceeded, various fictions such as Star Trek and Futurama (favorites of mine) to the contrary. I don't know how close the nearest possible star might be, but it's at least several light-years distant. Again, that's one hell of a long way and the likelihood of that/those closer stars having planets capable of supporting life (as we define it) is about nil.
So it would seem that extra-terrestrials visiting us would have to do so in some sort of craft designed to support successive generations, probably many of them. Unless, of course, we're talking near immortality or a new set of Laws of Physics here, in which case the conversation becomes downright surreal.
And then there is always the question of: Why? Why bother with our fractious, little clod when there is the whole Galaxy and beyond to investigate.
I kinda think that it's the "God created us in his image" syndrome; rather a conceit that we actually have a great importance in the Universe. Mayhap we have, but a quick look through any decent telescope can raise a lot of doubts as to that.
|
"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
|
|
|
|
JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 14:11:08 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by filthy
I dunno. Let's look at the logistics of the question. Distance in space is measured, correct me if I'm wrong, in light-years, meaning that it's the distance light that travels in a year. That's one hell of a long way, by our standards. It has also been noted that the speed of light cannot be exceeded, various fictions such as Star Trek and Futurama (favorites of mine) to the contrary. I don't know how close the nearest possible star might be, but it's at least several light-years distant. Again, that's one hell of a long way and the likelihood of that/those closer stars having planets capable of supporting life (as we define it) is about nil.
So it would seem that extra-terrestrials visiting us would have to do so in some sort of craft designed to support successive generations, probably many of them. Unless, of course, we're talking near immortality or a new set of Laws of Physics here, in which case the conversation becomes downright surreal.
And then there is always the question of: Why? Why bother with our fractious, little clod when there is the whole Galaxy and beyond to investigate.
I kinda think that it's the "God created us in his image" syndrome; rather a conceit that we actually have a great importance in the Universe. Mayhap we have, but a quick look through any decent telescope can raise a lot of doubts as to that.
|
If you think about ideas such as string theory this problem of logistics falls away. Think of our universe as a membrane, another universe (membrane) could be as close as an inch. Worm holes are another idea which solves the problem of logistics; and from my understanding they are mathematically possible, only the energy needed is currently impossible.
Based on the theoretical age of the universe and the probability of life; earth is most likely not the first planet to create life. Also, based on the age of the universe, ETs more than likely have colonized or visited the vast majority of habitable planets.
|
What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 15:10:43 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
If you think about ideas such as string theory this problem of logistics falls away. Think of our universe as a membrane, another universe (membrane) could be as close as an inch. Worm holes are another idea which solves the problem of logistics; and from my understanding they are mathematically possible, only the energy needed is currently impossible. |
If the energy required is currently impossible, then the problem of logistics remains.| Based on the theoretical age of the universe and the probability of life; earth is most likely not the first planet to create life. Also, based on the age of the universe, ETs more than likely have colonized or visited the vast majority of habitable planets. |
All speculation since the number of life-bearing planets we know of is one, and the number of civilizations we know of that have visited more than one star is zero. Calculating probabilities under such circumstances is extraordinarily difficult. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
Siberia
SFN Addict
Brazil
2322 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 15:59:26 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by filthy
I dunno. Let's look at the logistics of the question. Distance in space is measured, correct me if I'm wrong, in light-years, meaning that it's the distance light that travels in a year. That's one hell of a long way, by our standards. It has also been noted that the speed of light cannot be exceeded, various fictions such as Star Trek and Futurama (favorites of mine) to the contrary. I don't know how close the nearest possible star might be, but it's at least several light-years distant. Again, that's one hell of a long way and the likelihood of that/those closer stars having planets capable of supporting life (as we define it) is about nil.
So it would seem that extra-terrestrials visiting us would have to do so in some sort of craft designed to support successive generations, probably many of them. Unless, of course, we're talking near immortality or a new set of Laws of Physics here, in which case the conversation becomes downright surreal.
And then there is always the question of: Why? Why bother with our fractious, little clod when there is the whole Galaxy and beyond to investigate.
I kinda think that it's the "God created us in his image" syndrome; rather a conceit that we actually have a great importance in the Universe. Mayhap we have, but a quick look through any decent telescope can raise a lot of doubts as to that.
|
Not to mention, only because life may exist, it doesn't necessarily mean it has to be anything remotely like human life or just life as we know it - or that it would be able to communicate with us as UFO crazies seem to claim (always with quaint little New Agey messages too). Solaris, anyone? |
"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa
"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
|
|
|
|
bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 16:13:17 [Permalink]
|
Dave W.....
Haisch's third case - the Ocala Radar-Visual case - would be the only one of his five specimen examples that would meet my criteria of "filtered". There were multiple observers, several were trained military, there was radar confirmation, there were investigations with no conclusions, and there is documentation.
If you can, for a moment, accept the incident as reported (I realize that there is the possibility of fraud, deceit, and error in any report) my question is "What is your view, better opinion, of this UFO report? Assuming there are a number of others with at least equal qualifiers (filters), can you make a general statement concerning your opinion of reports of this type?"
Parenthetically, the fact that there were multiple observers with presumably highly similar perceptions of the same phenomenon, is most germane to the subject matter of my writing.
Cuneiformist states that he has little interest in documentation. If he has read the Fermi's Paradox piece and still wants more, I intend to ask Dr. Haisch if he has additional foundation for his statements concerning the likelihood of extraterrestrial contact.
Unless you have an objection, I will refer Dr. Haisch to this thread. It is easier and more accurate than cut and paste or paraphrasing.
|
|
|
|
filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 16:22:45 [Permalink]
|
I for one, would very much like Dr. Haisch to join our happy, little hive, if only briefly. He reads like a very interesting and well spoken person and I'd like to get his views, and the reasons for them, first-hand.
|
"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
|
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 17:16:07 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by bngbuck
Dave W.....
Haisch's third case - the Ocala Radar-Visual case - would be the only one of his five specimen examples that would meet my criteria of "filtered". There were multiple observers, several were trained military, there was radar confirmation, there were investigations with no conclusions, and there is documentation.
If you can, for a moment, accept the incident as reported (I realize that there is the possibility of fraud, deceit, and error in any report) my question is "What is your view, better opinion, of this UFO report? Assuming there are a number of others with at least equal qualifiers (filters), can you make a general statement concerning your opinion of reports of this type?" |
In all seriousness, I'm still unsure of what you are asking. You and marty seemed to make it clear in the older thread that you're not interested in anything so mundane as whether we think these sorts of reports are true. And if, as you ask, we grant the report as accurate for the sake of discussion, then what? On what would you have us render an opinion if not the veracity of the report?| Parenthetically, the fact that there were multiple observers with presumably highly similar perceptions of the same phenomenon, is most germane to the subject matter of my writing. |
Yes, and the number of trained psychologists and sociologists among us who might be able to discuss why a handful of people might all fervently belief a fiction (if a fiction it was) can be counted on the fingers of one hand. If that's the sort of opinion you'd like to hear, you've come to the wrong place.| Unless you have an objection, I will refer Dr. Haisch to this thread. |
Go right ahead. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 18:22:14 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by filthy
I for one, would very much like Dr. Haisch to join our happy, little hive, if only briefly. He reads like a very interesting and well spoken person and I'd like to get his views, and the reasons for them, first-hand.
|
I second that!
|
What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
|
|
|
Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 18:38:33 [Permalink]
|
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
Originally posted by filthy
I for one, would very much like Dr. Haisch to join our happy, little hive, if only briefly. He reads like a very interesting and well spoken person and I'd like to get his views, and the reasons for them, first-hand.
|
I second that!
|
And perhaps he could fill us in on his idea of an iron sun?!? |
|
|
|
furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 21:02:19 [Permalink]
|
| And perhaps he could fill us in on his idea of an iron sun?!? |
You just had to go there didn't you!
If Micheal shows up it's on your head Cune.
|
If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
|
|
|
furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 09/03/2007 : 21:11:32 [Permalink]
|
As Filthy alluded to, maybe star travel is effectively impossible. The cost benefit would be hard to take. Bankrupt a planet to send a few people on a 100 year journey with a low probability of success?
I don't know maybe the smart thing is to make the planet you live on as close to paradise as possible, instead of a giant garbage can.
|
If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
Brights' opinions of select UFO sightings P.S.
