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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
 Posted - 09/05/2007 : 07:52:16 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
As to why; if they exist, they have not made contact: It could be that having had "first contact" before with other "species" on other planets, they have developed a gradual program of awareness so as to not create a shock in the population. We all remember the reaction to the radio broadcast War of the Worlds.
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You're kidding, right?
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Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 07:54:25 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
We all remember the reaction to the radio broadcast War of the Worlds. |
Do we?...historians also claim that newspaper accounts over the following week greatly exaggerated the hysteria. There are estimates that about 20 percent of those listening believed it was real. That translates to less than a million people.
At the time, newspapers considered radio an upstart rival. Some in the print press, resentful of the superior radio coverage during the Munich crisis, may have sought to prove a point about the irresponsibility of the radio broadcast.
"The exaggeration of the War of the Worlds story can be interpreted as the print media's revenge for being badly scooped during the previous month," McLeod said.
- "War of the Worlds": Behind the 1938 Radio Show Panic I certainly don't remember any reaction, 'cause I wouldn't be born for another 28 years.
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20% is a rather large number with the ability to cause much havoc. The question is what would the reaction be if it was real?
Have you ever listen to the broadcast?
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 08:01:08 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by furshur
To be fair, if there was documented evidence of radar tracking an object moving at 7700 mph in our lower atmosphere and remaining intact that would indeed indicate something far beyond any known technology humans have. |
To be really fair, anything moving through the lower atmosphere at 7700 MPH at midnight without prompting hundreds or thousands of telephone calls to the police requires something far beyond any known technology humans have.
But, without rock-solid evidence, ad hoc explanations are all that's available. That's what leads Dr. Haisch to say that maybe, someday, someone here on Earth will figure out faster-than-light travel and really explain all these sightings. For him, "perhaps" is a good enough standard on which to "suspend judgement."
So yeah, if Dr. Haisch shows up here, probably one of the most-important things to ask if is if, perhaps due to physics we haven't yet figured out, there really might be a hollow sphere made primarily of iron just under the photosphere of the Sun. Seems to me that by his logic, he would have to agree. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 08:06:19 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Kil
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
As to why; if they exist, they have not made contact: It could be that having had "first contact" before with other "species" on other planets, they have developed a gradual program of awareness so as to not create a shock in the population. We all remember the reaction to the radio broadcast War of the Worlds.
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You're kidding, right?
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A reasonable explanation to the question asked by Dude. I am not making an assertion, only an observation as to a likely explanation if ETs are a fact.
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 10:28:53 [Permalink]
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| We all remember the reaction to the radio broadcast War of the Worlds. |
Any fear caused by that broadcast might have been due to the fact that the aliens in that dramatization were killing everyone in sight.
I think if the broadcast had been about a group of nice aliens sitting down and having a brew with Filthy it would not have been quite as terrifying. 
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If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 10:44:13 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME
A reasonable explanation to the question asked by Dude. I am not making an assertion, only an observation as to a likely explanation if ETs are a fact. |
How did you measure its likelihood? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 12:21:10 [Permalink]
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JDG said:
A reasonable explanation to the question asked by Dude. I am not making an assertion, only an observation as to a likely explanation if ETs are a fact.
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Reasonable by what standard?
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 12:48:58 [Permalink]
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Dave W......
To be really fair, anything moving through the lower atmosphere at 7700 MPH at midnight without prompting hundreds or thousands of telephone calls to the police requires something far beyond any known technology humans have.
To be really, really fair; anything moving through the lower atmosphere at midnight AND prompting hundreds or thousands of telephone calls to the police requires something far beyond any known technology humans have! (A key word here is known.)
Actually there are cases similar to this involving hundreds or thousands of observers and hundreds or thousands of phone calls to police and other authorities. Understanding that many Forum members have an aversion to using Google (one click using UFO mass sightings gives hundreds of choices, but it takes an hour or two to sort them out depending on the degree of filtration you demand), I am not suggesting that anyone do that!
The best alternative that I can suggest is the one cited by Dr. Haisch - The UFO Encyclopedia in two volumes by Jerome Clark. It is not available free on the internet to my knowledge. Amazon has it new at $150, used at $125. I am reasonably certain it should be available at any large public library. For anyone with more than a casual interest in UFOs, it is the best single reference that I can suggest.
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 13:33:21 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by bngbuck
To be really, really fair; anything moving through the lower atmosphere at midnight AND prompting hundreds or thousands of telephone calls to the police requires something far beyond any known technology humans have! (A key word here is known.) |
Nah, an F-15 going supersonic a hundred feet off the ground over a largish town far from an airbase would suffice. It would scare the pants off almost everyone, and damage not a few windows. 911 would be backed up in under a minute. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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JohnOAS
SFN Regular
Australia
800 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 15:20:03 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
911 would be backed up in under a minute.
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A slightly off-topic comment from a non-American.
It took me some time to figure out what the hell you meant by the statement quoted above.
My first interpretation of "911" was of the events almost 6 years ago. Our emergency services are reached by dialling 000.
My first interpretation of "backed up" was confirmation.
I only mention it because it amused me, and may others. Of course, it may also be that I'm simply pointing out my own obtuseness. I blame at least some of this on sleep deprivation caused, at least in part, by the presence of the US President in town here at the moment.
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John's just this guy, you know. |
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bngbuck
SFN Addict
USA
2437 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 15:50:09 [Permalink]
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Dave W......
Sorry. In slightly re-phrasing your statement I inadvertently left out at 7700 MPH.
Another interesting event which in no way suggests aliens or extraterrestrial visitation, actually had a large but unknown number of observers, but appears to be beyond doubt as to whether or not it really happened, is the Battle of Los Angeles, which can be found in condensed version in the Wikipedia (under Battle of Los Angeles). I am unsure if I would call this a truly filtered event, as it happened at least ten years before UFOs became fashionable and no one was investigating such events. I don't see it as controversial, but I don't think any skeptic could doubt that something damned strange was going on in the air that night.
If anyone at SFN still has any interest in this topic, this would be a quick and provocative read. |
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 17:45:50 [Permalink]
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Purported negative from the LA Times:
Edited out photo in favor of the link to the photo. It was messing up the page.
Kil
Edit: smaller photo |
What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
| Edited by - JEROME DA GNOME on 09/05/2007 23:31:37 |
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED
2418 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2007 : 17:50:06 [Permalink]
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The California State Military Museum
| Radars picked up an unidentified target 120 miles west of Los Angeles. Antiaircraft batteries were alerted at 0215 and were put on Green Alert—ready to fire—a few minutes later. The AAF kept its pursuit planes on the ground, preferring to await indications of the scale and direction of any attack before committing its limited fighter force. Radars tracked the approaching target to within a few miles of the coast, and at 0221 the regional controller ordered a blackout. |
After the war the Japanese stated that they did not have anything in the air in that place at that time.
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What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13477 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2007 : 08:34:21 [Permalink]
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My apologies, if this has already been covered.
From article:
I propose that true skepticism is called for today: neither the gullible acceptance of true belief nor the closed-minded rejection of the scoffer masquerading as the skeptic. One should be skeptical of both the believers and the scoffers. The negative claims of pseudo-skeptics who offer facile explanations must themselves be subject to criticism. If a competent witness reports having seen something tens of degrees of arc in size (as happens) and the scoffer -- who of course was not there -- offers Venus or a high altitude weather balloon as an explanation, the requirement of extraordinary proof for an extraordinary claim falls on the proffered negative claim as well. |
First off, Haisch has built a strawman argument here, rife with other fallacies. I do not know of any skeptics that default to a closed-minded rejection. Skepticism requires a certain open mindedness and I just don't know these pseudo-skeptics of whom Haisch speaks of. That is his strawman.
As for the supposed suggestions of other possibilities by skeptics being framed as claims by Haisch, he is just wrong. They are not claims. And the burden of proof still falls on those who think the UFO was of alien origin. That is an extraordinary claim requiring evidence as weighty as the claim itself. While subtle perhaps to one who is not given to skepticism and may be swayed by this line of thinking, what he is really doing is attacking skeptics themselves. (He calls them scoffers).
Haisch:
That kind of approach is also pseudo-science. Moreover just being a scientist confers neither necessary expertise nor sufficient knowledge. (I wish it did, sigh.) Any scientist who has not read a few serious books and articles presenting actual UFO evidence should out of intellectual honesty refrain from making scientific pronouncements. To look at the evidence and go away unconvinced is one thing. To not look at the evidence and be convinced against it nonetheless is another. That is not science. Do your homework! |
More of the same. Who exactly are these scientists/skeptics making “scientific pronouncements?”
In any case, I still see it this way. Unidentified flying objects are unidentified flying objects. If one person or a thousand people see something, or if a person who has some credibility sees something that is unidentified, well, it is still unidentified.
And if I offer some speculation of my own as to what it might be, I am not making a claim whether Haisch thinks so or not.
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Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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perrodetokio
Skeptic Friend
275 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2007 : 09:09:21 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Kil
In any case, I still see it this way. Unidentified flying objects are unidentified flying objects. If one person or a thousand people see something, or if person who has some credibility sees something that is unidentified, well, it is still unidentified.
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Exactly! This is what I have been saying from the start.
UFO = Unidentifed Flying Object - NOT ALIEN SPACESHIP
cheers
perro de tokio |
"Yes I have a belief in a creator/God but do not know that he exists." Bill Scott
"They are still mosquitoes! They did not turn into whales or lizards or anything else. They are still mosquitoes!..." Bill Scott
"We should have millions of missing links or transition fossils showing a fish turning into a philosopher..." Bill Scott |
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Brights' opinions of select UFO sightings P.S.
