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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
 Posted - 09/17/2004 : 16:06:51
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Any one have insight or time to look why these polls are so different? I tried to find how the polls were done when the results supposedly changed by ~10% after the Republican campaign. That seemed pretty hard to believe. Now I heard some vague mention of the polls being taken on Labor Day weekend and not being reliable.
Now we have new polls showing the race back to even and the USA Today comes out and says Bush is ahead by a big margin.
It's disgusting. If Fox wants to poll their audience and claim Bush is ahead, that's bad enough. But what's with these other polls? Are they just really crappy or are we facing real corporate mucking in the election beyond financial?
I don't want to get too alarmist but I do think we are a great risk of truly losing our democracy if the media owners decide they can cross the line into manipulation rather than mild distortion. The precedent being set by Fox news is very disturbing if you think about it.
Well, I've rambled from fake polls to Fox...time to stop.
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Renae
SFN Regular
543 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2004 : 06:34:37 [Permalink]
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Beskeptigal, I'm baffled by the polls, too. They fluctuate almost daily, it seems.
Are people really changing their minds? Is the polling not truly representative of the US population? Is the polling sloppily done, biased, poorly analyzed...?
I have no idea what's going on. |
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Stargirl
Skeptic Friend
USA
94 Posts |
Posted - 09/19/2004 : 17:14:47 [Permalink]
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Maybe I can give some insight because I just participated in a weird political survey.
The pollster - don't know what else to call him, said the survey would cover my voting preferences in the upcoming presidential and congressional elections– note the plural here, and take 3 to 5 minutes.
Fist he asked me my age and I told him though I'm not going to state it here.
Then he asked if I was a registered voter and I told him I was.
He asked if I planed on voting in the upcoming elections and I said yes.
The fourth and final question he asked was if I was going to vote for President George W. Bush or for Kerry. I thought it was a little strange that he would say President George W. Bush but only refer to Senator John F. Kerry by his last name.
After I told him that I planed on voting for John Kerry I found the survey suddenly over.
By this time I'd been on the phone less than 2 minutes. When I quizzed him on the 3 to 5 minutes he initially said it would take and asked if he wanted my preferences on the congressional candidates he became a little flustered. He told me that he had all the information he needed, said thank you and hung up.
The abruptness with which the survey was terminated made me feel that perhaps I'd given the wrong an undesirable answer.
This got me to thinking about the recent surge in Bush's poll numbers and the insinuation by some people who think the numbers are being manipulated. I'm wondering if saying I was going to vote for John Kerry means that my opinion/preference would even be recorded.
Do you guys think there's something weird about this or am I'm being overly suspicious
I was going to start a new thread but I saw beskeptical had already started a thread on polls so I'm posting it here. |
If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him - Voltaire |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 09/20/2004 : 19:41:09 [Permalink]
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I just saw this on the Media Matters site (available at this link):
quote:
But the media has largely ignored both Gallup's and the CBS News/New York Times polls' oversampling of Republicans. As author and joint fellow at the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation Ruy Teixiera explained, these polls include more Republicans in their sample than is representative of the electorate. According to Teixiera, the CBS News/New York Times poll sample included 4 percent more Republicans than Democrats. And Gallup told TheLeftCoaster.com's Steve Soto that it surveyed 7 percent more Republicans than Democrats. Media Matters for America has previously noted that John Zogby, president and CEO of independent polling firm Zogby International, pointed out on September 7 that in the last two presidential elections, Democrats have represented 4 percent to 5 percent more of the electorate than have Republicans.
There's more to read-- feel free to look at it and see what you think... |
| Edited by - Cuneiformist on 09/20/2004 19:42:45 |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/21/2004 : 02:52:15 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Cuneiformist
I just saw this on the Media Matters site (available at this link):
quote:
But the media has largely ignored both Gallup's and the CBS News/New York Times polls' oversampling of Republicans. As author and joint fellow at the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation Ruy Teixiera explained, these polls include more Republicans in their sample than is representative of the electorate. According to Teixiera, the CBS News/New York Times poll sample included 4 percent more Republicans than Democrats. And Gallup told TheLeftCoaster.com's Steve Soto that it surveyed 7 percent more Republicans than Democrats. Media Matters for America has previously noted that John Zogby, president and CEO of independent polling firm Zogby International, pointed out on September 7 that in the last two presidential elections, Democrats have represented 4 percent to 5 percent more of the electorate than have Republicans.
There's more to read-- feel free to look at it and see what you think...
Oh thank you. I knew there was a fishy smell. It is so disheartening to see such slanted news media. I hate to start thinking conspiracy but you have to wonder about that 'corporate controlled media' charge that floats around.
Now why can't CNN or some other station make a bigger deal of this than the stupid Dan Rather story? |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 09/21/2004 : 04:24:51 [Permalink]
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Reminds me of a episode of the wonderful Yes (prime) minister series.
The PM, Jim Hacker wants to reintroducing conscription which he belives will be a vote-winner because a Party poll has shown that 64% of the population are in favour.
Cabinet Secretary Sir Humphrey advises Hackers Private Secretary Bernard to issue another poll to show the majority of the population is against reintroducing conscription. Bernard wonders how this can be done and Sir Humphrey explains it:
quote:
Sir Humphrey: "You know what happens: nice young lady comes up to you. Obviously you want to create a good impression, you don't want to look a fool, do you? So she starts asking you some questions: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our Comprehensive schools?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think they respond to a challenge?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?"
Bernard Woolley: "Oh...well, I suppose I might be."
Sir Humphrey: "Yes or no?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Of course you would, Bernard. After all you told you can't say no to that. So they don't mention the first five questions and they publish the last one."
Bernard Woolley: "Is that really what they do?"
Sir Humphrey: "Well, not the reputable ones no, but there aren't many of those. So alternatively the young lady can get the opposite result."
Bernard Woolley: "How?"
Sir Humphrey: "Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Are you worried about the growth of armaments?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "There you are, you see Bernard. The perfect balanced sample."
Some countries forbid polls the last days before an election... |
"Any religion that makes a form of torture into an icon that they worship seems to me a pretty sick sort of religion quite honestly"
-- Terry Jones |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 09/22/2004 : 04:07:55 [Permalink]
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First time I've seen a electoral votes prediction giving the election to Kerry.(269 to 253 electoral votes, AR(6) & MD(10) tied)
It's just a (or rather several) poll, but its nice with some good news and polls do affect voters.
Note that Nader is a factor in several states, Arizona Arkansas and Virginia(10+6+13 = 29 EVs, 23 for Bush). He probably will be in Florida as well (K:49% B: 48%, 27 EVs for Kerry)
Its not my intention to hijack this thread for another Nader discussion. I called Nader a factor if a state would swing if all Nader voters should instead vote for Kerry.
[edited : Forgot Maryland, sorry MDers.] |
| Edited by - Starman on 09/22/2004 04:12:35 |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 09/22/2004 : 05:53:12 [Permalink]
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| I just assumed the Republican Smear and Disinformation machine was working. That or we're seeing the effect of Kerry's absolutely botched campaign. Probably both. :( |
-Chaloobi
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/22/2004 : 13:37:38 [Permalink]
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Gag, CSPAN's electoral vote report had Bush with a huge lead this morning. Clearly not the same polls as yours, Starman.
But on a more optimistic note, I have heard the following problems with the sample selection: Labor Day phone calls got a skewed population after the Republican convention, polling land lines leaves out a large section of cell phone only young people, and from an above post, Gallup included a disproportionate number of Republicans.
ABC and NPR both bothered to explain to us how a sample can represent the whole but failed to ask the important question of if the sample was an unbiased true sample of the whole.
Hopefully the main media crowd will hear the blogger echoes and question the polling validity. What a bunch of idiots those news guys are. I want accurate polls. It won't change the election to give polls in favor or not, (I'm ignoring possible influence). But it is stressing me out to the max to see Bush ahead. If it ain't true I want to know, if it is true I want to start my immigration paperwork.  |
| Edited by - beskeptigal on 09/22/2004 13:38:24 |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/22/2004 : 13:56:59 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Starman
First time I've seen a electoral votes prediction giving the election to Kerry.(269 to 253 electoral votes, AR(6) & MD(10) tied)
...
Well comparing that site to his referenced Bush poll site I feel a lot better. If you look at the methodology of the first site, it's pretty clean and straight forward. Try to figure out the methodology of the second site. It's quite a challenge. It's as if asking people who they will vote for has to then be interpreted by some very bizarre and complex set of rules.
Perhaps someone else gets it and can explain it better than the site does. |
| Edited by - beskeptigal on 09/22/2004 13:57:42 |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 00:05:40 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by beskeptigal
Gag, CSPAN's electoral vote report had Bush with a huge lead this morning. Clearly not the same polls as yours, Starman.
Probably not. The "Votemaster" of this page wrote about a big update today
quote:
It won't change the election to give polls in favor or not, (I'm ignoring possible influence).
I beg to differ.
The argument from popularity affects a lot of people.
People want to vote for a winner, and some people might not bother to vote for (someone they think is)a loser. |
"Any religion that makes a form of torture into an icon that they worship seems to me a pretty sick sort of religion quite honestly"
-- Terry Jones |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 01:57:39 [Permalink]
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I know it has influence, Starman. That's why I said I'm ignoring that aspect. I only meant to whine that I wanted to know what a well done poll would really show and I was rambling a bit. It does bother me that the polls are clearly wrong in some way since they are not consistent. But when half the country is somehow convinced the Iraq war is fighting terrorism, the lies in the polls are mere drops in the bucket of propaganda. It is very disheartening.
So what do you think of the mumbo-jumbo methodology on the GOP poll site? Here's a sample:
quote:
So, here's the formula for the national polling adjustment
((JobApproval * 7) + (HeadtoHead * 5) + (RightTrack * 2)) / 14
The result is used in conjunction with the state polling adjustment to determine each state's projected result.
Here's an example using Iowa:
2000 national election result: Bush 47.87%
Baseline Adjustment: 1.215% (added to Bush's 47.87% 2000 total to bring him to 49.085% in 2004)
2000 Iowa election result: Bush 48.22%, Gore 48.54%, Nader 2.23%
After Nader vote allocation: Bush 48.67%, Kerry 49.66%
Hypothetical job approval: 54%
Head-to-head: 48-42%
Right track / wrong direction: 45-52%
National Polling Adjustment: +2.57%
State Poll (new poll): 47-45%
State Polling Adjustment: +2.0%
State Polling weight: 0.5
Total Adjustment = Baseline Adjustment + (National Polling Adjustment + State Polling Adjustment/2)/1.5 = 3.60%
Projected 2004 national result: Bush 51.47%, Dem 46.71%
Projected 2004 Iowa result: Bush wins by 4.67%
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| Edited by - beskeptigal on 09/23/2004 02:02:11 |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 02:43:25 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by beskeptigalI know it has influence, Starman. That's why I said I'm ignoring that aspect.
I know, was just making my point.quote:
So what do you think of the mumbo-jumbo methodology on the GOP poll site?
Polling, especially honest polling is difficult.
What questions are asked, how do they decide whom to contact, how do the contact people, when do they poll ...
The methodology seems strange but with out all the info its difficult do decide.
My guess is that a GOP poll site would try to get as good believable numbers for W as possible.
A Dem site would do the same for Kerry.
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"Any religion that makes a form of torture into an icon that they worship seems to me a pretty sick sort of religion quite honestly"
-- Terry Jones |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 14:28:13 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Starman
Polling, especially honest polling is difficult.
What questions are asked, how do they decide whom to contact, how do the contact people, when do they poll ...
The methodology seems strange but with out all the info its difficult do decide.
My guess is that a GOP poll site would try to get as good believable numbers for W as possible.
A Dem site would do the same for Kerry.
Well the rest of the mumbo-jumbo is on the site. Come on guys, I need someone who knows more than I do to look at the method and tell me if it is a bunch of hogwash or a real expert analysis that is over my head.
At your convenience, of course. |
| Edited by - beskeptigal on 09/23/2004 14:29:27 |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 09/24/2004 : 01:06:13 [Permalink]
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"It's not likely that I would vote for Kerry," Robb said. "But I'm looking at what my options are when it comes time to cast my vote."
South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb, one of West Virginia's five republican electors. |
"Any religion that makes a form of torture into an icon that they worship seems to me a pretty sick sort of religion quite honestly"
-- Terry Jones |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2004 : 05:12:31 [Permalink]
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http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Kerry 280, Bush 239 (270 needed to win)
Tied states : CO(9), AR(6) & NH(4)
New Mexico(5) is the only other state where Nader is a factor.
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"Any religion that makes a form of torture into an icon that they worship seems to me a pretty sick sort of religion quite honestly"
-- Terry Jones |
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