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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
 Posted - 10/08/2004 : 06:20:33 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Starman
First time I've seen a electoral votes prediction giving the election to Kerry.(269 to 253 electoral votes, AR(6) & MD(10) tied)
It's just a (or rather several) poll, but its nice with some good news and polls do affect voters.
Note that Nader is a factor in several states, Arizona Arkansas and Virginia(10+6+13 = 29 EVs, 23 for Bush). He probably will be in Florida as well (K:49% B: 48%, 27 EVs for Kerry)
Its not my intention to hijack this thread for another Nader discussion. I called Nader a factor if a state would swing if all Nader voters should instead vote for Kerry.
[edited : Forgot Maryland, sorry MDers.]
Without the support of Log Cabin Republicans, Bush has a harder row to hoe. His campaign really pissed them off with their anti-gay stance. 50,000 Log Cabin Republican members voted for Bush in FL in 2000.
The Greens are fragmented.
http://www.changein04.com/
They urge Green Party voters in swing states to vote for Kerry because defeating Bush is more important than standing on principal. |
Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 10/08/2004 : 06:31:37 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by beskeptigal
quote:
Originally posted by Starman
Polling, especially honest polling is difficult.
What questions are asked, how do they decide whom to contact, how do the contact people, when do they poll ...
The methodology seems strange but with out all the info its difficult do decide.
My guess is that a GOP poll site would try to get as good believable numbers for W as possible.
A Dem site would do the same for Kerry.
Well the rest of the mumbo-jumbo is on the site. Come on guys, I need someone who knows more than I do to look at the method and tell me if it is a bunch of hogwash or a real expert analysis that is over my head.
At your convenience, of course.
It's a cluster fuck.
This guy, although he claims to try not to favor Bush, jerks the numbers around enough to make them worthless. He has some major assumptions which go against local and national polls and gives approval rating a high weight vs wrong direction and head to head. Also his baseline assumes Nader voters will continue to vote on principal rather than follow someone else in swing states.
he starts with a 1.215% edge for Bush and then adds in the numbers (accentuating Bush's strong points by assigning more weight to them than Bush's weak points.) to fit his underlying assumption.
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Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
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