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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
 Posted - 11/26/2004 : 14:04:58
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We are driving to extinction many species, including our own. This planet will soon become uninhabitable for humans, along with many other lifeforms. Where will we go? Will we suddenly find someplace over the ozone to which we can evacuate the earth?
No, we won't; we will die. We will sicken and die as the planet becomes less and less able to support our depradations. Which is too bad, I suppose, but our departure will create many new ecological niches into which the remaining life can evolve, and the planet will be free once again to flow toward whatever it will eventually become.
It is indeed we humans who are compelling the biosphere towards a crisis, away from its normal equilibrium state, into a major mass extinction that will include us. Even now that we know we are killing ourselves, if not the planet, we just keep on gnawing away at the Earth and spewing our toxic wastes whereever it seems convenient.
We may or may not have time to learn how to live off the planet; we may only have decades. We'd better hurry!
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Much of the world will be at war soon, as the mad scramble intensifies for the dwindling resources of the planet:
*Oil production has reached its peak, or soon will, and will soon decline drastically.
*Water is becoming more and more dangerous to drink.
*Air is becoming more dangerous to breathe, even in areas remote from civilization.
*Food production will shift as the climate warms.
*Europe may undergo an ice age as the ocean currents shift, esp. the Gulf Stream.
With all this going on we will continue to waste lives, money, time, energy, and precious resources to fight each other for the possession of those very same resources!
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The U.S. will soon become a police state, which is OK, I suppose, as long as you're the police, but if you're unlucky enough to be just a regular Joe...
Sometime in the next few years the U.S. will be hit by another major terrorist attack, which will cause the U.S. government to institute martial law, soon to become a military dictatorship. The Religious Right (which might be just a Neocon dupe) may or may not gain power, but the Neocons certainly will, which will allow them to attain ther agenda of global hegemony.
The Executive Branch controls, or soon will:
*The White House
*The Senate
*The House of Representatives
*The Military
*The Intelligence Services
*The State Department
The Judiciary
The Republicans enjoy the support of:
*The Religious Right
*Most of the Media
*The Corporate Entity
*The NRA
In the chess game of national politics, we are deep int the middle game with the Neocons having the advantage both in material and position. The left can either hunker down and try to defend their position tenaciously, or they can attack, or they can resign. Unfortunately, in this gam resigning is not an option. Any defense the left tries to initiate, such as educating and informing the electorate, will likely be too little. too late.
So the progressives must attack, but how? They can't even tell who "the King" is, much less how to attack it.
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American politics these days reminds me of the feud between the Earp and the Clantons. Both factions wanted to control Dodge City, but the Earps "won" the Gunfight, and so became "The Law" while the Clantons, having lost (and died), became known as having been outlaws. of course, the Earps would've been the outlaws had it been they who had died. Both of the major political parties in America want to control the country; when will they have the big gunfight?
So it seems to me that either we will have a civil war or a police state; or maybe civil war and then police state, maybe even a theocratic one.
All this will occur over the next few years, only to get worse in the coming decades as the world degenerates into chaos.
  
Edted to wish y'all some Happy Holidays!
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"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
Edited by - walt fristoe on 11/26/2004 14:10:54
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Ricky
SFN Die Hard
USA
4907 Posts |
 Posted - 11/26/2004 : 21:36:46 [Permalink]
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I see many unsupported assertions in there, I'll try to pick out a few big ones:
quote:
Will we suddenly find someplace over the ozone to which we can evacuate the earth?
No, we won't; we will die.
I disagree. I think it is very possible we will be able to develope technology in the next 100 years to be able to live on the moon or mars, or perhaps even harsher enviornments. So we may or may not die before we reach this point, or we may not reach this point at all.
quote:
It is indeed we humans who are compelling the biosphere towards a crisis, away from its normal equilibrium state, into a major mass extinction that will include us.
Equilibrium, when talking about a biological state, don't exist at only one point. There can be many points of equilibrium, and when you change one part, all other parts can shift to make a new equilibrium. So just showing that we are changing the equilibrium doesn't mean that it is really a bad thing, unless you can show that the enviornment can not cope with that change.
quote:
Much of the world will be at war soon, as the mad scramble intensifies for the dwindling resources of the planet:
*Oil production has reached its peak, or soon will, and will soon decline drastically.
*Water is becoming more and more dangerous to drink.
*Air is becoming more dangerous to breathe, even in areas remote from civilization.
*Food production will shift as the climate warms.
*Europe may undergo an ice age as the ocean currents shift, esp. the Gulf Stream.
I see this as a non-sequitur. "Resources will become sparse so the world will be at war." That just doesn't follow. Why would a global resource shortage create war? I'm not so sure about air, but I believe that the water has become less dangerous to drink, thanks to new technologies to filter it. I'll have to do some research on both. As for food production shift, I don't think you can predict what happens there. The weather is effected severly by chaos theory and a large change such as a temperature shift will strongly effect all weather patterns.
quote:
The U.S. will soon become a police state, which is OK, I suppose, as long as you're the police, but if you're unlucky enough to be just a regular Joe...
Where is this coming from?
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Sometime in the next few years the U.S. will be hit by another major terrorist attack, which will cause the U.S. government to institute martial law, soon to become a military dictatorship.
Assertion after assertion after assertion... How can you say this? And how many is a few? 5? 10? 100? Why do you think that this would lead to martial law and then to a dictatorship? I see this as a Slippery Slope fallacy.
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The Republicans enjoy the support of:
*The Religious Right
*Most of the Media
*The Corporate Entity
*The NRA
Christianity, aka the religious right, is on the decline. I would like to see some statistics on the media, as I have heard both the left and the right control it.
quote:
So the progressives must attack, but how? They can't even tell who "the King" is, much less how to attack it.
This I agree with.
quote:
American politics these days reminds me of the feud between the Earp and the Clantons. Both factions wanted to control Dodge City, but the Earps "won" the Gunfight, and so became "The Law" while the Clantons, having lost (and died), became known as having been outlaws. of course, the Earps would've been the outlaws had it been they who had died. Both of the major political parties in America want to control the country; when will they have the big gunfight?
This country is built upon challenging others. We challenge our leaders, the Democrates challenge the Republicans and the Republicans challenge the Democrates. If this system were to fail and one party to completely take over the other, then I argue that we wouldn't be really living in the same country. Our country is built upon a system of struggle for power so that no one can ever win.
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So it seems to me that either we will have a civil war or a police state; or maybe civil war and then police state, maybe even a theocratic one.
Considering that this was supported to be supported by the above, and I find the above unsupported, I find this unsupported as well. |
Why continue? Because we must. Because we have the call. Because it is nobler to fight for rationality without winning than to give up in the face of continued defeats. Because whatever true progress humanity makes is through the rationality of the occasional individual and because any one individual we may win for the cause may do more for humanity than a hundred thousand who hug their superstitions to their breast.
- Isaac Asimov |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 11/26/2004 : 21:53:29 [Permalink]
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Ricky wrote:quote:
Equilibrium, when talking about a biological state, don't exist at only one point. There can be many points of equilibrium, and when you change one part, all other parts can shift to make a new equilibrium. So just showing that we are changing the equilibrium doesn't mean that it is really a bad thing, unless you can show that the enviornment can not cope with that change.
A good point, as we've already had mass extinctions. Really, the only thing that's going to be bad for the entire biosphere is if the equilibrium point gets pushed so far that Earth becomes like Venus, for example - so nasty that any life would have a heck of a time surviving.
On the other hand, if I'm reading correctly, I believe Walt is actually more worried about human extinction due to human-induced "equilibrium shifting" than getting the biology precisely correct. It's the "ultimate H. sapiens genocide" he's talking about, really. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 11:16:59 [Permalink]
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Here are some more of my unsupported assumptions (hey, if the Bible-thumpers can do it, why can't I?  ):
Several events in the history of life on Earth (which we've only recently become aware of) reveal that the planet's ecosystem often undergoes periods of sudden (geologically speaking) large transitions in order to reach a new equilibrium. During these periods life must adapt to accomodate whatever the new conditions turn out to be, while often playing a significant role in the process. These periods of dis-equilibrium can have any of several causes, and can be caused by one or more life forms, as in the case of the Oxygen Revolution.
Before human extinction occurs, as resources decline and food production becomes less able to feed the great unwashed masses, the Rich and Powerful will begin to view the Poor as too many mouths to feed, so that they will automate as much of the production process as possible in order that the Poor can be either ignored or exterminated.
But the Poor are always useful for something, if only as cannon fodder. In the coming war(s) it will be primarily the Poor who die, as it has always been in war. Many wars occur when there are too many Poor people (as during the Depression, which was a direct cause of WWII). Whatever the geopoloitical circumstances, wars are often fought just to kill off large numbers of Poor people, after which (as in the 1950s) goods are plentiful and affordable because there are fewer consumers.
But since Poor people often have much larger families than the Rich and Powerful, before long there will once again be too many mouths to feed, so another war will be foisted on the world. And so on...
The only ways to abolish poverty are to spread the wealth or kill the Poor, and spreading the wealth has never been an option for those who already have it.
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"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
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Plyss
Skeptic Friend
Netherlands
231 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 11:46:18 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
Here are some more of my unsupported assumptions (hey, if the Bible-thumpers can do it, why can't I? ):
Because we're the ones who demand evidence for claims. |
Miss Tick sniffed. 'You could say this piece of advice is pricesless', she said. 'Are you listening?'
'Yes' said Tiffany.
'Good now...If you trust in yourself.."
'Yes..?'
'..and believe in your dreams...'
'yes?'
'...and follow your star..' Miss Tick went on.
'Yes?'
'You'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy. Goodbye.' |
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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 12:54:23 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Plyss
quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
Here are some more of my unsupported assumptions (hey, if the Bible-thumpers can do it, why can't I? ):
Because we're the ones who demand evidence for claims.
Then I won't call them "claims", I'll call them "predictions"! |
"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
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way
New Member
USA
35 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 13:15:51 [Permalink]
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There is at least one claim that I'd like to know the basis of since it is a twist I've never heard.
quote:
Many wars occur when there are too many Poor people (as during the Depression, which was a direct cause of WWII).
As I understand it, America tried to stay out of WWII but finally jumped in after Pearl Harbor. And though I've never read much on the Depression era, I've always been under the impression that it was a domestic thing versus global. How did that play into Germany's actions?
Regards,
way |
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furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 14:38:49 [Permalink]
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The Great Depression really did affect the entire industriallized world.
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If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 15:25:58 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
quote:
Originally posted by Plyss
quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
Here are some more of my unsupported assumptions (hey, if the Bible-thumpers can do it, why can't I? ):
Because we're the ones who demand evidence for claims.
Then I won't call them "claims", I'll call them "predictions"!
Sorry, you should call them prophesy.
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Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
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Ricky
SFN Die Hard
USA
4907 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 19:47:23 [Permalink]
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quote:
As I understand it, America tried to stay out of WWII but finally jumped in after Pearl Harbor. And though I've never read much on the Depression era, I've always been under the impression that it was a domestic thing versus global. How did that play into Germany's actions?
The Great Depression actually hit Germany much harder than America.
A brief history lesson:
After Germany lost WWI, the allies demanded that Germany pay 30 billion dollars for causing the war (there were really many causes, but the allies forced Germany to say it was their fault). Now Germany had 30 billion dollars to repay, but their country was war torn and had no chance of paying this back.
Meanwhile, America's stock market crashed, and just having payed a lot of money for the war, recalled their loans to Great Britian and France to gain the money back. Great Britian and France didn't have the money, so they couldn't pay it back and went into dept. America, not getting this money back, went into the Great Depression.
Back in Germany, they didn't have 30 billion dollars to pay for the war. So what do you do when you don't have money? Make more of course! This, as you would have thought, flopped. The value of the German currency went down, way down. You literally had to bring money in a barrel to buy a loaf of bread.
Of course, much of the world such as India, China, and Japan depended upon these countries for support, which they were no longer able to give. So these countries were affected as well.
It was very much global. |
Why continue? Because we must. Because we have the call. Because it is nobler to fight for rationality without winning than to give up in the face of continued defeats. Because whatever true progress humanity makes is through the rationality of the occasional individual and because any one individual we may win for the cause may do more for humanity than a hundred thousand who hug their superstitions to their breast.
- Isaac Asimov |
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Ricky
SFN Die Hard
USA
4907 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 19:53:14 [Permalink]
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quote:
Before human extinction occurs, as resources decline and food production becomes less able to feed the great unwashed masses, the Rich and Powerful will begin to view the Poor as too many mouths to feed, so that they will automate as much of the production process as possible in order that the Poor can be either ignored or exterminated.
I'm curious, what do you think about the laws of conservation of matter and energy? That is, we can't lose matter (or a significant amout of it). Everything on this planet is cycled (exluding that which makes it into space). So when you poop, that poop gives nutrients to bacteria in the soil which in turn gives nutrients to plants, which in turn gives nutrients to livestock, which in turn gives nutrients to humans. This cycle, or cycles like it, have been occuring for 3.5 billion years. What makes you think it will stop anytime soon? |
Why continue? Because we must. Because we have the call. Because it is nobler to fight for rationality without winning than to give up in the face of continued defeats. Because whatever true progress humanity makes is through the rationality of the occasional individual and because any one individual we may win for the cause may do more for humanity than a hundred thousand who hug their superstitions to their breast.
- Isaac Asimov |
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ktesibios
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 20:24:51 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by way
[
As I understand it, America tried to stay out of WWII but finally jumped in after Pearl Harbor.
I don't think that's entirely correct. Major increases in US military spending and expansion of weapons manufacturing began well before the US entry into the war. In addition, even when we were formally neutral it was pretty clear that the US government favored the Allied side; apart from FDR's providing substantial material aid to England, the US Navy was escorting Britain-bound merchant ships, shooting at and being shot at by German submarines months before Pearl Harbor.
quote:
And though I've never read much on the Depression era, I've always been under the impression that it was a domestic thing versus global. How did that play into Germany's actions?
As Furshur pointed out, the Great Depression was really a global phenomenon. For a look at its effects in England, I recommend Orwell's The Road to Wigan Pier.
It also played a very significant role in helping the Nazis to power. The German economy had been slowly, shakily recovering from the shocks of the early '20s, and support for parties on the political fringe had been waning.
As the worldwide depression took hold, unemployment in Germany rose steadily, and the Nazi vote rose in step with it.
The rest of the story is well-known...
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"The Republican agenda is to turn the United States into a third-world shithole." -P.Z.Myers |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26022 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 23:54:32 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
Here are some more of my unsupported assumptions (hey, if the Bible-thumpers can do it, why can't I? ):
Geez, Walt, you go away for a while, and come back with a to quoque sort of attitude?
I'm thinking you're going to have to go through the super-secret skeptic's initation all over again. Don't you remember how bad it was the first time?
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- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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way
New Member
USA
35 Posts |
Posted - 12/03/2004 : 23:56:54 [Permalink]
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Thanks for some historical details. I've watched and read quite a bit about the tactics and timeline of WWII after America joined in fully but really haven't bothered with the politics surrounding it.
Nothing that can't be corrected with a little more reading though. |
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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 12/08/2004 : 22:16:55 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Valiant Dancer
quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
quote:
Originally posted by Plyss
quote:
Originally posted by walt fristoe
Here are some more of my unsupported assumptions (hey, if the Bible-thumpers can do it, why can't I? ):
Because we're the ones who demand evidence for claims.
Then I won't call them "claims", I'll call them "predictions"!
Sorry, you should call them prophesy.
OK, I'll admit, I'm prophesying. But remember, when these things come to pass, you heard it here first! |
"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
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walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 12/08/2004 : 22:20:07 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricky
quote:
Before human extinction occurs, as resources decline and food production becomes less able to feed the great unwashed masses, the Rich and Powerful will begin to view the Poor as too many mouths to feed, so that they will automate as much of the production process as possible in order that the Poor can be either ignored or exterminated.
I'm curious, what do you think about the laws of conservation of matter and energy? That is, we can't lose matter (or a significant amout of it). Everything on this planet is cycled (exluding that which makes it into space). So when you poop, that poop gives nutrients to bacteria in the soil which in turn gives nutrients to plants, which in turn gives nutrients to livestock, which in turn gives nutrients to humans. This cycle, or cycles like it, have been occuring for 3.5 billion years. What makes you think it will stop anytime soon?
I don't expect the nutrient cycle to end, only the human input into the cycle. |
"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
| Edited by - walt fristoe on 12/08/2004 23:00:34 |
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