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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
 Posted - 09/27/2001 : 23:49:27 [Permalink]
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quote:
Could this be the beginning of civilization as we know it?
No. Civilization in the broad sense already began thousands of years ago. (I know you meant the "end" but the answer is still no.)With regard to the present. Western civilization was attacked (most recently in America but earlier in Europe and other places,) by a ruthless, highly intelligent but immoral lunatic distortion lead by an extremely wealthy, pampered individuals who at this time are waging war actually on Western culture, even if there was complete piece in the middle east. They see western influence and concepts (such as separaton of church and state, and host of other things,) as an afront to their twisted concept of life, which is even at odds with the actual peaceful religions of Islam.
After a very very terrible and long struggle of many years, and with the help of rational forces from both the middle east and the west (i.e. civilizations) the evil of terrorism will subside. You or I may not live to see it, but it will end.
While they plot holocausts, they have only their wrong and completely distorted fascist version of the Koran, and civilization around the world including America has Beethoven, Mickey Mouse, Marilyn Monroe, NASA, Coke-a-cola, Hubble Space Telescope, FBI, eyes everywhere, neutron bombs, children, actual Koran, Mark Twain, Bible, atheism, separation of church and state, tolerance, justice, pride, …I think you get the idea. Just as with a very differnt war 60 years ago, a sleeping giant has awakened with an unstoppable resolve, and is growing. The world will be very different, but we must remain optimistic. Good people everywhere of every culture hope for the best and expect and hopefully survive the worst.
Chip |
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bjones
Skeptic Friend
Australia
82 Posts |
Posted - 09/28/2001 : 17:07:17 [Permalink]
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quote:
Robots are doing all the hard work? Anyway, post after post you have failed to answer that one simple question that is so necessary to this theory. I'm done with it.
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law!
Fossil evidence indicates all animal vertebrate species do or will become extinct sooner or later. We are just another vertebrate in the eyes of nature and we too will become extinct it is just a matter of when. I am very pessimistic about the idea of migrating to other planets so our extinction will be lived out on Earth.
Are you at all optimistic about the human species being able to migrate those tens or thousands of lights across the galaxy or millions or billions of lightyears across the universe to make some accept to that rule layed down through paleontological evidence?
We will become extinct sooner or later this attack on the WTC is just little reminder.
Bob
Remember: when you die your philosophy dies with you
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@tomic
Administrator
USA
4607 Posts |
Posted - 09/28/2001 : 17:21:01 [Permalink]
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bjones,
You miss the point completely. This Doomsday argument is what we're talking about not that the fossil record indicates that many species have become extinct therefore we are destined to someday be extinct ourselves. I don't argue the likelihood of human extinction. I argue that the Doomsday theory, as presented, is flawed. It assumes we are in the middle of human history for no good reason at all and that is what we are talking about. So...do you have any data at all to show that we are in the middle of human history or don't you??
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law! |
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bjones
Skeptic Friend
Australia
82 Posts |
Posted - 09/28/2001 : 20:09:51 [Permalink]
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quote:
bjones,
You miss the point completely. This Doomsday argument is what we're talking about not that the fossil record indicates that many species have become extinct therefore we are destined to someday be extinct ourselves. I don't argue the likelihood of human extinction. I argue that the Doomsday theory, as presented, is flawed. It assumes we are in the middle of human history for no good reason at all and that is what we are talking about. So...do you have any data at all to show that we are in the middle of human history or don't you??
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law!
Have you got any evidence to the contrary? I am only using a statisical probability that we are somewhere in the middle of human history. but I can never be certain. What is it that makes you so certain or your alternative theory?
Bob
Remember: when you die your philosophy dies with you
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@tomic
Administrator
USA
4607 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 01:49:03 [Permalink]
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LOL, nice try amigo. It's you that presented the theory. The burden of proof is on you. I guess you are maybe thinking that my theory is that this Doomsday theory makes no sense?
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law! |
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WindupAtheist
New Member
41 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 02:27:06 [Permalink]
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This is the stupidest bloody thing I've ever heard. It seems to boil down to...
"There must be fewer people in the future, because if there were more people in the future, it's more likely I would have been born into it!"
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bjones
Skeptic Friend
Australia
82 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 07:05:21 [Permalink]
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quote:
LOL, nice try amigo. It's you that presented the theory. The burden of proof is on you. I guess you are maybe thinking that my theory is that this Doomsday theory makes no sense?
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law!
Their must competing theories name them and what more it is not my theory it is Brandon Carter's (and you with your baseless debunking) I guess the burden of proof would be on him if anything
It is a theory that premises probability and not irrefutable evidence.
I will change the little 2 urns game in your favor. The urn #1 has its usual ten balls urn #2 has first ten of its one million numbered balls removed so we end up with its remaining 999,990 balls numbered 11, 12, 13, 14,... etc
Now lets assume you are partaking in a lottery and you can write any number from 1 to 1,000,000 on a ticket and you can only win if the ball you pick out of one of the urns matches the number you wrote on the ticket you win $1 million but you have no Idea which urn has 999,990 numbered balls and which one has the 10, so you just have to decide at the flip of a coin
Would you be prepared to write a number on your ticket greater than 10? Only a fool would do that because if you did that than your chances would be as low as 1,999,980 the other alternative would be as good as 1 in 20.
I you are more partial to writing a number of 1 to 10 then that proves that you endorse the DA because that is what is all about in a nutshell.
bjones
Remember: when you die your philosophy dies with you
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@tomic
Administrator
USA
4607 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 13:23:51 [Permalink]
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So a million years from now people could be discussing this same theory? How usueful is this if applied to real life? How about zero?
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law! |
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bjones
Skeptic Friend
Australia
82 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 16:00:37 [Permalink]
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quote:
So a million years from now people could be discussing this same theory? How usueful is this if applied to real life? How about zero?
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law!
It is coming to terms with the notion that our species is mortal and accepting not only the we are mortal on a individual basis but also on a much broader species basis. In a million years time there may well be another species of Homo "x" we can only vaguely speculate about.
bjones
Remember: when you die your philosophy dies with you
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Trish
SFN Addict
USA
2102 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 17:29:40 [Permalink]
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Hey, gonna stick my foot in it here but...
bjones, it seems as though you are saying there are only a finite number of humans to be born. Now, as a thinking reasoning beings we can do one of two things - destroy ourselves prematurely (we hope not) or potentially prolong ourselves indefinitely, i.e. escape our little mudball before the sun becomes a red giant. But as to the perceived concept that there are a finite number of human beings to be conceived seems a bit beyond silly. That is a predicition that seems conceited at best and perhaps rooted in religiosity.
He's YOUR god, they're YOUR rules, YOU burn in hell! |
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ljbrs
SFN Regular
USA
842 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 18:08:41 [Permalink]
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Folks:
This planet (Earth, just in case you wondered) and its inhabitants depend for life upon its star, the Sun. The Sun will be going into its Red Giant phase in a few billion years. That will fry the earth for certain.
The Andromeda Galaxy is moving toward The Milky Way Galaxy (a/k/a The Galaxy) and will merge with our galaxy in approximately three to five billion years. At that time there will be a lot of starburst activity as happens with merging galaxies but there might be little actual contact between the indivisible stars. At the moment, the Earth has barely emerged from the Orion spiral arm and is moving away from the Orion spiral arm toward the Sagittarius spiral arm. Within spiral arms there is a lot of activity which might make it hazardous for life on earth at those times.
Our space probes, after numerous years, have yet to reach the Heliopause (the end of the Solar influence on Earth). There is also a time limit (the speed of light -- 299,792,458 meters per second [m/s]), so regardless of the speed of the craft which must be under the speed of light, we will not ever be getting near to leaving the galaxy to travel to another galaxy. The nearest large galaxy, Andromeda, has been measured by the Hipparchos Satellite as being 2.92 million light years (the distance light travels in a year) distant from us. So the travel time between galaxies would necessitate countless generations of space travelers, if any survive the first year or so. Remember, you have to carry everything you might need, or must grow it in some manner.
Eventually, regardless of the above, in the very long run of things, the universe is expected to wind down (go through a number of exceedingly long, drawn-out stages such as the white dwarf stage, the red dwarf stage, the black hole stage, etc.), and all that will remain in the long run will be positronium -- (positron and electron pairs), which pairs will be orbiting each other at vast distances, eventually to meet and annihilate with each other. Now, of course, this is a very brief synopsis of a great many things which will be happening. I do not expect humans to be able to survive their attempted travel to another star and, if that became possible, whether there would be a suitable planet around a sun-like star to inhabit. I hope that they plan ahead before they start their trip.
So, I would give it at the max about 1 billion years before the red giant stage for the sun.
Do not pack your bags yet, but the end is most certainly coming, eventually. And it has nothing to do with Armageddon, Heaven, Hell, etc.
Now, sleep tight, and watch out for the bedbugs to bite...
ljbrs 
*Nothing is more damaging to a new truth than an old error.* Goethe |
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James
SFN Regular
USA
754 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 19:59:55 [Permalink]
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So, you're basically saying that our sun ain't going nowhere before about 999 million AD? Ok, then I won't give a c**p about it. Got more important things to worry about.
The way I see it, christians are godless too...they just don't know it yet. |
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ljbrs
SFN Regular
USA
842 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 20:43:37 [Permalink]
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James:
This was just a silly thing to worry about. However, I went out late tonight to take out the trash and to go to my mailbox, and guess what? My November 2001 Astronomy magazine was in the box and in that issue was an article about the galaxy mergers. I took a quick look and it used a six billion year figure which was higher than either of two previous figures of five billion and then three billion. So, you see, perhaps we have an extra billion or so years to go before the two huge galaxies merge (one of which is, of course, our very own Milky Way -- The Galaxy). Of course, the Sun will become a red giant star long before that time, so the time scale for the end of Earth remains the same. However, if we are able to get to a younger star in the meantime, we may have a number of extra years left before the merging of our galaxy with Andromeda. Oh, dear, oh, dear, I don't know what I am going to do. It will be rough getting to sleep, knowing that there is so little time left...
Oh, dear, oh, dear! What are we all going to do? I wonder if I will have time to pack...
ljbrs   
*Nothing is more damaging to a new truth than an old error.* Goethe
Edited by - ljbrs on 09/29/2001 20:46:50 |
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The Bad Astronomer
Skeptic Friend
137 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2001 : 22:00:49 [Permalink]
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I have thought about the Carter theory. I think it's wrong.
If I do the ball thing, and pull a 7 out, then that tells me absolutely nothing about how many balls are in the box (except, there are at least seven). His fallacy lies in the idea that a low number is more improbable than any other number. This is indeed a fallacy. The odds of getting four aces in a poker hand is exactly as likely as getting any other combination of four cards. We just think it's less likely because we tend to lump the other hands into one group of "not as good".
Imagine now the human species lives for, say, 100 billion years. Then anyone in the first billion years can make this same claim as Carter. "How unlikely it is that we are in the first 1% of the life of the race!" But where do you draw the line? At what point do you finally say, we must be in the middle (or near the end)?
So the fact that we are here after about 2 million years means little, as well as how many humans have existed before. It doesn't predict the future.
Also, the paleontological argument that no species lives forever is fallacious too. No other species has ever been as smart as we are. Many, if not the vast majority, of species overadapt to a particular environment. When there is a change, they go extinct. We, on the other hand, are very adaptable. It would take a catastrophe on the order of the Permian extinction to kill all of us.
And I do think we can colonize the Galaxy. It's really not a matter of anything but technology, and we are almost there now. I won't predict the future, because those who do almost invariably wind up looking like fools, but if I had to bet, I'd bet we'll do it. The Galaxy is big (modesty aside, I probably know that better than anyone else on this board) but our tech is getting pretty good. And we need not colonize the Galaxy, just other planets. Even the Moon would do; anyplace not the Earth, to let us survive a global catastrophe.
The Sun will make the Earth uninhabitable long before it goes red giant; G stars like ours get hotter as they age, and the Earth will fry in about a billion years or so. Again, if I were to bet, I'd wager we'll figure out what to do by then!
*****
The Bad Astronomer
http://www.badastronomy.com
"With tremendous respect to [the] BA, the problem isn't getting scientists to talk, the problem can be getting them to shut up." |
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James
SFN Regular
USA
754 Posts |
Posted - 09/30/2001 : 01:26:10 [Permalink]
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quote:
The Sun will make the Earth uninhabitable long before it goes red giant; G stars like ours get hotter as they age, and the Earth will fry in about a billion years or so. Again, if I were to bet, I'd wager we'll figure out what to do by then!
Provided we don't blow overselves up in the process and in the mean time.
(/devil's advocate) 
The way I see it, christians are godless too...they just don't know it yet.
Edited by - James on 09/30/2001 01:29:54 |
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