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bjones
Skeptic Friend
Australia
82 Posts |
 Posted - 09/30/2001 : 05:19:42 [Permalink]
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quote:
Hey, gonna stick my foot in it here but...
bjones, it seems as though you are saying there are only a finite number of humans to be born. Now, as a thinking reasoning beings we can do one of two things - destroy ourselves prematurely (we hope not) or potentially prolong ourselves indefinitely, i.e. escape our little mudball before the sun becomes a red giant. But as to the perceived concept that there are a finite number of human beings to be conceived seems a bit beyond silly. That is a predicition that seems conceited at best and perhaps rooted in religiosity.
He's YOUR god, they're YOUR rules, YOU burn in hell!
I will just post this one last say to this thread
Now lets assume you emerge into this world as a Neanderthal. You would be far more likely to be born at a time when the Neanderthal was not at the brink of extinction or just a few mutant individuals when the species first emerged. It would be more probable for you to exist in a point of time when the Neanderthal proliferated throughout the old world before the end of the last ice age. The same applies also to the much more prolific “homo sapiens”, this is a very healthy time in history for HS to exist so this is the most probable time for you to exist.
I also have a hunch that after the next 30 years when the greater bulk post war baby boomers drop off the perch coupled with a declining birth, the world population will decline dramatically, and not I hope by some terrible man mad catastrophe like a nuclear Armageddon brought on by bellicose religious zealots, but just merely natural mechanics of leveling things out (so you can just print this up an put in a time capsule and dig it up in 30 years time).
Again I must emphasize the theory is based on probability and not irrefutable evidence. I will one again use this 2 urns analogy for the umpteenth time. Urn#1 has it 10 numbered balls urn#2. Once again has all its one million balls numbered 1, 2, 3, … etc If I toss my coin and pick a ball out of one that numbered say 560,456 that would be irrefutable evidence that that came out of urn#2. But If I had pulled out a ball that was the numbered 7 then that is not irrefutable evidence that it came from urn#1 as urn#2 also contains a ball numbered 7. But if I had to put my money or life on it I would say it came out of unr#1 because that is where it probably came from This is what I am speaking of right through this thread probability
Not heading this can lead you down a very dangerous path Like for quite a while there was no irrefutable evidence that inhaling tobacco smoke into your lungs was addictive or causes cancer and the tobacco companies used this very much to their advantage even though there was enough statistical proof that that smoking probably does cause cancer and is addictive
Bjones
Remember: when you die your philosophy dies with you
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marvin
Skeptic Friend
77 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2001 : 10:23:43 [Permalink]
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quote:
…The same applies also to the much more prolific “Homo sapiens”, this is a very healthy time in history for HS to exist so this is the most probable time for you to exist... ---Bjones
According to Ronald Lee, a professor of demography and economics at the University of California at Berkeley, the cumulative population {ie all dead & living} was projected to be 110 billion this year (2000), 6 billion of them still living, or 5.45 percent. Perhaps 6% in 2001.
This is not the most probable time for you to exist. |
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@tomic
Administrator
USA
4607 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2001 : 10:32:38 [Permalink]
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Now that was an illuminating piece of information. Thanks marvin.
@tomic
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law! |
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marvin
Skeptic Friend
77 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2001 : 11:12:27 [Permalink]
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“…In other words, if you arrive at a party, and the room is packed, you're probably not among the first to arrive, and the party is likely to end soon…. when is the party over? When there are lots of people in the room or just a few? How does one determine whether one is among the first ten percent of arrivals or among the last ten percent? Don't count guests. The end is near when the guacamole runs out, the beer has gone flat…” ---Dick Teresi
Mr. Teresi may be on to something: When is the party over? When we run out of oil, coal, uranium, sunlight. When the icecaps melt. When a huge solar flair scorches the earth. When a large comet or asteroid impacts earth. When a terrorist thermonuclear device detonates over NYC or Washington DC.
How fragile is our existence? Politics, Religion, Science which will fail us?
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bjones
Skeptic Friend
Australia
82 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2001 : 02:25:02 [Permalink]
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quote:
“…In other words, if you arrive at a party, and the room is packed, you're probably not among the first to arrive, and the party is likely to end soon…. when is the party over? When there are lots of people in the room or just a few? How does one determine whether one is among the first ten percent of arrivals or among the last ten percent? Don't count guests. The end is near when the guacamole runs out, the beer has gone flat…” ---Dick Teresi
Mr. Teresi may be on to something: When is the party over? When we run out of oil, coal, uranium, sunlight. When the icecaps melt. When a huge solar flair scorches the earth. When a large comet or asteroid impacts earth. When a terrorist thermonuclear device detonates over NYC or Washington DC.
How fragile is our existence? Politics, Religion, Science which will fail us?
The party is a beautiful analogy. I tend to turn up a parties when about half the invited guests have arrived. I am seldom amongst the first 10% who blow up the balloons or the last 10% who would like the crash for the night.
bjones 
Remember: when you die your philosophy dies with you
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EnderNow1
New Member
USA
21 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2001 : 02:54:23 [Permalink]
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You can gauge from the dip, but you cannot see the reserves of dip in the fridge yet. Or perhaps the host has a whole new dip nobody has ever heard of they are about to take out.
Are oil supplies will dwindle in the next fifty years. However we are already integrating other forms of fuel into our gasoline, such as ethenol. We are only starting to harness the power of the sun, wind, and various alternative sources of energy.
Civilizations will fall and crumble, but humanity will go on. Anything short of an asteroid hitting the Earth I doubt humainty will die. Even if nuclear weapons are exchanged and civilization as we know it is destroyed, somewhere in Australia or in South America a remote tribe will survive and teh cycle will repeat itself. Remember that humanity has been on Earth for hundreds of thousands of years and we only have record of the last eight thousand or so.
It's a magical world out there, let's go exploring! |
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