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furshur
SFN Regular

USA
1536 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  19:11:36   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send furshur a Private Message
T-r-o-l-l or s-t-u-p-i-d or both.


If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  19:14:41   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
Originally posted by furshur

T-r-o-l-l or s-t-u-p-i-d or both.




I find it ironic that your contributions seem to only consist of calling me a troll.


What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Boron10
Religion Moderator

USA
1266 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  20:36:28   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Boron10 a Private Message
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Boron, to you point "These are not the only two ways to refer to emissions."

Of course there are other ways to refer to emissions. I was responding to Fursur saying "E-m-i-s-s-i-o-n-s. Understand?". Implying that man made is what emissions means.
I sincerely hope you are aware of the effort it takes me to answer this without sarcasm.

I have the ability to read; thus, you do not need to explain that you were responding to the post right before yours, especially when you address the poster by name. If you know you were drawing a false dichotomy, why did you do it? Was it, as increasingly many here think, an attempt to deceive? Do you understand how rude this is, whether or not it was deliberate?

If you knew he was "implying that man made is what emissions means," why waste all of our time with the follow-up? Do you understand how rude this is?

And yes, furshur's reply to you was rude. That does not give you free license to use the childish "he did it first" excuse. We expect people here to be better than that.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  21:04:54   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
Boron, I explained what I responded to because your post gave the appearance that you misunderstood to what I was referring.

The crux of this is what was the emission reference to: man made or natural. No one has answered as the study seems to be missing. Am I to believe that data and facts are unimportant to your faith?


What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  22:55:05   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME

I can not find the study despite looking through the US National Academy of Sciences web site for evidence of this study. The articles do not classify what emissions are talked about. Why is this such a hard question to answer?
Because you're incompetent? It took me all of 60 seconds to find the abstract.

You also wrote:
Looks like the US National Academy of Sciences believes the model are not as accurate as they are purported to be.
Looks like you're taking quotes from a seven year old article and talking about them in the present tense.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  23:29:45   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
Dave, thanks for finding the document. And it surely is referring to man made emissions.

Two things I found interesting.

1. It is comparing a 10 year data set to a 4 year data set.

2. The estimates of man made co2 emissions are derived from extrapolation of energy use.

These are not real figures of co2, these are assumptions based on energy use.

The method used was the Marland and Rotty method (1984).

cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp030/fig5.htm

This method seems sound, but there are reasons to suspect its findings. Methods of production have become more efficient since 1984 and the corralation between energy use and co2 emmisons may be off by a large factor.




What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2007 :  23:55:18   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Dave, thanks for finding the document. And it surely is referring to man made emissions.

Two things I found interesting.

1. It is comparing a 10 year data set to a 4 year data set.

2. The estimates of man made co2 emissions are derived from extrapolation of energy use.

These are not real figures of co2, these are assumptions based on energy use.

The method used was the Marland and Rotty method (1984).

cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp030/fig5.htm

This method seems sound, but there are reasons to suspect its findings. Methods of production have become more efficient since 1984 and the corralation between energy use and co2 emmisons may be off by a large factor.
Wow, you're weird. Marland and Rotty appear to have only been cited once in the PNAS paper, for historical emissions since 1751. Please quote the text about the "method" that was used, and reference where the quote is from.

Other than that, I couldn't really care less what you think is a problem or not, since you mostly refuse to acknowledge the same sorts of deficits of argumentation in your own posts.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/10/2007 :  08:22:49   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0700609104v1

It is a pdf file, I can not cut and paste.

Page seven tells us the data used is from CDIAC.

Looking for CDIAC data collection methods we find the Marland and Rotty method (1984).

Looking at Marland and Rotty method, we find extrapolation of carbon emissions based on surveys of energy use.

The amount of carbon emissions is based on the amount of energy used. This assumes there is constant co2 emissions per unit of energy use. This also assumes the surveys are without error.

Lots of assumptions for the severity of the proclamation.








What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 06/10/2007 :  08:36:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME

www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0700609104v1

It is a pdf file, I can not cut and paste.
That's odd, since Adobe's reader lets me cut-and-paste just fine.
Page seven tells us the data used is from CDIAC.
No, it specifically says that it's not:
Comparisons were made among three different emissions data sets: CDIAC global total emissions, CDIAC country-level emissions, and EIA country-level emissions. These revealed small discrepancies with two origins. First, different data sets include different components of total emissions, Eq. 1. The CDIAC global total includes all terms, CDIAC country-level data omit FBunkers and FNonFuelHC, and EIA country-level data omit FCement but include FBunkers by accounting at country of purchase. The net effect is that the EIA and CDIAC countrylevel data yield total emissions (by summation) that are within 1% of each other, although they include slightly different components of Eq. 1, and the CDIAC global total is 4–5% larger than both sums over countries. The second kind of discrepancy arises from differences at the country level, the main issue being with data for China. Emissions for China from the EIA and CDIAC data sets both show a significant slowdown in the late 1990s, which is a recognized event (16) associated mainly with closure of small factories and power plants and with policies to improve energy efficiency (17). However, the CDIAC data suggest a much larger emissions decline from 1996 to 2002 than the EIA data (SI Fig. 10). The CDIAC emissions estimates are based on the UN energy data set, which is currently undergoing revisions for China. Therefore, we use EIA as the primary source for emissions data subsequent to 1980.

- Concluding paragraph (on page seven of the PDF), my emphasis.
So what do you "find" for the collection method for the EIA data?

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/10/2007 :  08:54:41   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
Dave, EIA also uses estimates based on energy production.

I also find it interesting that two different methods of estimation are compared for two different time frames. The report acknowledges that the two methods of estimating show different estimates. Curious that they used the estimates that showed the greater amount of emissions.



What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26022 Posts

Posted - 06/10/2007 :  18:45:45   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Blah, blah, blah-di-blah-blah.

Sure is a pity that global climate change predictions don't rest upon any single study. Then we could impugn the whole process by simply finding something 'curious' in a short article. Wouldn't that make nay-saying easy? Hey, we could probably "debunk" an entire scientific consensus just by quoting a handful of interested but inexpert PhDs, and perhaps one political appointee, too. Ah, the dreams one can have, of a world in which science isn't actually science, and inept laymen are considered wise.

It sounds like... Seattle.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/11/2007 :  21:27:55   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
Thanks for admitting that a study from which you base your believes is flawed. Little seen in these forums. Congratulations!


What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4955 Posts

Posted - 06/12/2007 :  03:27:53   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Thanks for admitting that a study from which you base your believes is flawed. Little seen in these forums. Congratulations!
Certainly never seen from you! And please: get help in your reading comprehension skills.
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JEROME DA GNOME
BANNED

2418 Posts

Posted - 06/12/2007 :  08:34:15   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send JEROME DA GNOME a Private Message
I did not realize true science only used data that fits their conclusion. I was under the assumption that science collected data to determine if a theory was accurate, and if the data does not fit the theory was to be amended.



What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. - Bertrand Russell
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4955 Posts

Posted - 06/12/2007 :  08:47:51   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message
Originally posted by JEROME DA GNOME

I did not realize true science only used data that fits their conclusion. I was under the assumption that science collected data to determine if a theory was accurate, and if the data does not fit the theory was to be amended.
Are you having the same conversation as the rest of us? But in any case, your assumption of science is more or less correct...
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